Tatiana Damjanovic

The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia

This paper reviews the economic conditions in central Asia at the time of the Russian financial crisis of August 1998; the channels by which the crisis was transmitted to the central Asian region; and the policy responses. The paper concludes that, while real exchange rates of central Asian national currencies vis-a-vis the Russian ruble have returned to their pre-crisis levels following the nominal devaluations that ensued, other indicators of external competitiveness, such as unit labor cost indices, suggest the need for further surveillance in this area. Also, it is not yet clear if full exchange rate flexibility has been established in central Asia despite the protracted and costly exits from the nominal exchange rates in place at the time of the crisis. Finally, the debt-to-GDP ratios in central Asia, which grew rapidly between 1998 and 1999 in the context of large exchange rate adjustments, remain a challenge for the Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities, in particular.

RELATIVE PRICE DISTORTIONS AND INFLATION PERSISTENCE

Many sticky-price models suggest that relative price distortion is one of the major costs of inflation. We show that this resource misallocation is costly even at quite low rates of inflation. This is because inflation strongly affects price dispersion which in turn has an impact on the economy qualitatively similar to, and of the order of magnitude of, a negative shift in productivity. Similarly, the utility cost of price dispersion is large. We incorporate price dispersion in a linearized model. This radically affects how shocks are transmitted through the economy. Notably, a contractionary nominal shock has a persistent, negative hump-shaped impact on inflation, but may have a positive hump-shaped impact on output. Observed persistence in the policy rate is not due to the policy rule per se.

Ordering Policy Rules with an Unconditional Welfare Measure

The unconditional expectation of social welfare is often used to assess alternative macroeconomic policy rules in applied quantitative research. It is shown that it is generally possible to derive a linear-quadratic problem that approximates the exact non-linear problem where the unconditional expectation of the objective is maximised and the steady-state is distorted. Thus, the measure of policy performance is a linear combination of second moments of economic variables which is relatively easy to compute numerically, and can be used to rank alternative policy rules. The approach is applied to a simple Calvo-type model under various monetary policy rules.

Optimal Time Consistent Monetary Policy

We discuss the issue of time consistency of monetary policy. We develop a simple and intuitive procedure to derive analytically the unconditionally optimal (UO) policy in a general linear-quadratic set-up, a perspective stressed by Taylor (1979) and Whiteman (1986). We compare the UO perspective on optimal monetary policy with alternative approaches. We use our approach in simple backward- and forward-looking models and argue that the UO perspective is worthy of renewed interest.

Linear-Quadratic Approximation to Unconditionally Optimal Policy: The Distorted Steady-State

This paper establishes that one can generally obtain a purely quadratic approximation to the unconditional expectation of social welfare when the steady-state is distorted. A specific example is provided employing a canonical New Keynesian model. Unlike in the non-distorted steady state case, the approximate loss function is not defined simply over terms in inflation and output. Furthermore, optimal steady state inflation and the nominal interest rate are positive.

On the Possibility of Pareto-improving Pension Reform

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it provides a simple framework for the analyses of the transitions between two steady states with different fiscal policies. This allows us to clarify the existing results on the possibility of Pareto-improving transitions from pay-as-you-go to fully funded pension systems. We show that the reduction in the marginal tax rate is a sufficient condition for the possibility of such pension reforms. Second, the paper investigates the features and the duration of the shortest Pareto-improving pension reform in an open economy.

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules from a Timeless Perspective

The timelessly optimal monetary policy proposed by Woodford (2003) may be dominated by alternative timeless policies. We provide a formal justification for these alternative policies. We demonstrate why discount rates do not matter and establish that optimizing over the unconditional expectation of the policy criterion function recovers these alternative strategies.

An Easy Proof of Lorenz Dominance Criterion

This article provides a proof of Lorenz dominance criterion for two increasing income transformations. The criterion is extended on the most general case, without any restriction on the form of initial income distribution or the properties of the income transformations. The simplicity of the proof makes it suitable for teaching purpose.

SOME WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF OPTIMAL STABILISATION POLICY IN AN ECONOMY WITH CAPITAL AND STICKY PRICES

In this paper we review and extend some of the key lessons that seem to be emerging from the Ramsey-inspired theory of dynamic optimal monetary and fiscal policies. We construct measures of the key distortions in our economy; we label these ‘dynamic wedges’. Inflation, actual or anticipated, distorts these wedges in the present period, it shrinks the tax base and increases the deadlweight loss. We show that, if possible, labour as well as capital ought to be subsidized in steady state. We point to a number of extensions to the Ramsey literature that may help in the formulation of actual policy.

Income Inequality, Tax Progressivity and Tax Optimization Industry

This paper investigates the relationship between tax base distribution and tax collection rate. We approach the tax collection problem using traditional industrial organization tools. Thus, we model the tax optimization industry and investigate the impact of the change in aggregate demand on the price setting which, in turn, affects the number of tax payers. It is found that lower income inequality as well as a less progressive tax code may result in a decreasing number of tax payers. Furthermore, we criticize the reduction in the highest tax rate as the policy for tax collection improvement.