Tatiana Kostadinova

Party Strategies and Voter Behavior in the East European Mixed Election Systems

I pursue two goals in this article: first, to explain parties’ and voters’ strategic choices in mixed electoral systems and, second, to assess the presence of such behavior in East European transitional elections. I develop a spatial model to explain parties’ decisions to form coalitions when proportional representation and plurality formulas are combined. Next, I identify factors that encourage voters to support different parties in the two tiers of the competition and use district-level data to examine these effects in Croatia, Lithuania and Ukraine. The findings suggest that considerations of spatial distribution of party support and the need to cross two thresholds shape decisions on whether or not to enter electoral coalitions. Some Croatian, Lithuanian and Ukrainian supporters of weaker parties, similar to voters in consolidated democracies, split their vote when they face strategic situations.

The impact of finance regulations on political parties: The case of Bulgaria

Abstract This article suggests that a successful explanation of the development of Bulgarias post-1989 party system must include the rules governing funding of political organisations. By examining the composition of party incomes and spending practices, I evaluate patterns and trends in fund raising using official party self-reported accounts and other data for 2001 – 05. I conclude that the specific public funding regime led to the emergence of three tiers of parties. The case of Bulgaria suggests that in the absence of strict regulations for reporting and enforcement mechanisms, the image of parties as representatives of the public interest was seriously damaged.

The puzzling success of populist parties in promoting women’s political representation:

Previous research dismisses the possibility that populist, male-dominated parties could positively affect gender equality. Yet, evidence from Eastern Europe points at the opposite: Center-rightist formations, led by notable men, have effectively nominated women to office. What can explain such a puzzling phenomenon? This study argues that i) the centralized structure and practices in these populist parties make it possible to avoid the reluctance of gatekeepers to let female candidates run; and that ii) regardless of ideological or cultural predispositions, supporters loyally approve the nomination decisions made by their charismatic leader. We analyze data on three populist parties in Bulgaria and Poland. Our findings confirm that these formations elected more women than the leftist parties because of strategies to nominate female candidates higher on the list. Voters were also more likely to favor female candidates in the open-list system in Poland.

Does Tactical Voting Matter? The Political Impact of Tactical Voting in Canadian Elections

Tactical voting primarily takes place under single-member district plurality electoral institutions and takes the form of third-party supporters voting for one of the major parties. Although much has been written about tactical voting, few studies have attempted to show its impact on seat distribution within the parliament or on the makeup of the subsequent government, in countries with single-member plurality systems. In this article, we assess the magnitude and impact of tactical voting in0 the Canadian general elections between 1988 and 2000. We build a model of tactical voting by identifying factors that are known to affect the level of tactical voting that we can measure using available data. Based on this model, we generate predicted levels of tactical voting for all parties within each district, and then use these predicted values to adjust the actual election data to produce a new set of data containing a would-be election outcome in the absence of tactical voting. By comparing actual election data, adjusted election data, and the seat share of political parties in the parliament after these elections, we discuss the political impact of tactical voting in Canada. The results of our study affirm that, in some cases, tactical voting does lead to election outcomes different from those in its absence and that arguments based on voter rationality are to some degree valid in the real world. At the same time, our results demonstrate that the impact of tactical voting on election outcomes, and thus on the actual distribution of seats within the parliament, has been minimal in Canada. It had no impact on the partisan composition of the government in any of the four elections studied.

Response to Reinoud Leenders's review of Political Corruption in Eastern Europe: Politics After Communism

Why has political corruption emerged as a major obstacle to successful democratic consolidation in Eastern Europe? Exploring the origins, scope, and impact of political corruption in the regions post-Communist states, Tatiana Kostadinova identifies the factors that favour illicit behaviour and considers how the various forms of malfeasance are threatening democracy. Rich cross-national data and an in-depth study of Bulgaria reveal how parties and their leaders have exploited the transitional environment for private benefit, as well as how domestic and external forces--including the EU integration process--are constraining corruption. Kostadinovas conclusions point to the policy-relevant implications of her study for Eastern Europe, and for transitional democracies around the world.