Tayfun Kindap

The impact of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on surface ozone concentrations in Istanbul.

Surface ozone concentrations at Istanbul during a summer episode in June 2008 were simulated using a high resolution and urban scale modeling system coupling MM5 and CMAQ models with a recently developed anthropogenic emission inventory for the region. Two sets of base runs were performed in order to investigate for the first time the impact of biogenic emissions on ozone concentrations in the Greater Istanbul Area (GIA). The first simulation was performed using only the anthropogenic emissions whereas the second simulation was performed using both anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Biogenic NMVOC emissions were comparable with anthropogenic NMVOC emissions in terms of magnitude. The inclusion of biogenic emissions significantly improved the performance of the model, particularly in reproducing the low night time values as well as the temporal variation of ozone concentrations. Terpene emissions contributed significantly to the destruction of the ozone during nighttime. Biogenic NMVOCs emissions enhanced ozone concentrations in the downwind regions of GIA up to 25ppb. The VOC/NO(x) ratio almost doubled due to the addition of biogenic NMVOCs. Anthropogenic NO(x) and NMVOCs were perturbed by ±30% in another set of simulations to quantify the sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the precursor emissions in the region. The sensitivity runs, as along with the model-calculated ozone-to-reactive nitrogen ratios, pointed NO(x)-sensitive chemistry, particularly in the downwind areas. On the other hand, urban parts of the city responded more to changes in NO(x) due to very high anthropogenic emissions.

Analysis of surface ozone and nitrogen oxides at urban, semi-rural and rural sites in Istanbul, Turkey

Ozone (O(3)) mixing ratios were measured at three different sites (urban/traffic, semi-rural and rural/island) in Istanbul from September 2007 to December 2009 in order to determine the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations of O(3) and nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) and to study the local and regional impacts. This is the first study that evaluates the O(3) levels in semi-rural and rural sites in Istanbul in addition to the urban sites. The diurnal O(3) variations are generally characterized by afternoon maxima (64 ppb at the urban, 80 ppb at the semi-rural and 100 ppb at the rural site) and the nighttime minimum being more pronounced at the polluted urban site. The monthly mean O(3) mixing ratios start to increase in March, reaching their maximum values in August for the urban (~25 ppb) and semi-rural sites (30 ppb). However, at the rural site, the monthly mean O(3) levels reach their maximum value in June (35 ppb). The O(3) mixing ratios for weekends were higher than those on weekdays at each site by up to 28%, possibly due to changes in VOC sensitivity and reduction in NO(x) levels. In order to better understand and characterize the relationship between air masses and O(3) levels, cluster analysis was applied to the back-trajectories calculated by the HYSPLIT model for the semi-rural site. The analyses clearly showed that major transport is characterized by northern and western clusters, particularly from the Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean region, as well as recirculation over Istanbul due to high pressure systems leading to accumulated levels of O(3). The results clearly suggest that extended measurement networks from urban to rural sites should be considered for a more comprehensive evaluation of O(3) levels.

Spatial and temporal analysis of black carbon aerosols in Istanbul megacity.

Black carbon (BC) is an important component of particulate matter due to its effects on human health and climate. In this study, we present the first BC concentrations measured in the Istanbul megacity (~15 million inhabitants). Two measurement campaigns have been conducted to measure BC and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at four locations, characterized by different traffic densities. In the first campaign, BC daily mean concentrations have been found to be between 4 μg/m(3) and 10 μg/m(3). In the second campaign, BC and PM2.5 have been measured at the site with the highest traffic density for an entire year. Annually averaged BC contributes by 38 ± 14% to the PM2.5 levels (annual average BC: 13 μg/m(3) and PM2.5: 36 μg/m(3)). Diurnal variations of BC concentrations followed those of traffic density (correlation coefficient of 0.87). These measurements are essential to identify the sources of BC and PM2.5 concentrations in Istanbul and develop mitigation measures.

Temporal changes in the Euphrates and Tigris discharges and teleconnections

The streamflow timings of the Euphrates and Tigris, two important snow-fed rivers in the Middle East, are found to be shifting to earlier days in the year. Six out of eight stations indicate statistically significant shifts between two consecutive 17-year periods (i.e.?1972?88 and 1990?2006). Among these stations, the average shift to earlier times is over 5?days, suggesting earlier spring melting of snowpack due to increased temperatures in the second period. A striking increase in the discharges takes place during the first half of March, and it is observed at all stream gauging sites considered in this study. An analysis based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data indicates that warming which results in this increase is associated with the switching from the northeasterly flow to southwesterly flow over the Black Sea and western Anatolia caused by the weakening of the Siberian High over eastern Europe. These changes in the circulation features from the first to second periods are found to be very consistent with the positive and negative phases of the North Sea?Caspian pattern.

The contribution of Saharan dust in PM10 concentration levels in Anatolian Peninsula of Turkey

Sahara-originated dust is the most significant natural source of particulate matter; however, this contribution is still unclear in the Eastern Mediterranean especially in Western Turkey, where significant industrial sources and metropolitan areas are located. The Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) is utilized to explore the possible effects of Saharan dust on high levels of PM10 measured in Turkey. RAQMS model is compared with 118-air quality stations distributed throughout Turkey (81 cities) for April 2008. MODIS aerosol product (MOD04 for Terra and MYD04 for Aqua) is used to see columnar aerosol loading of the atmosphere at 550 nm (Aerosol optical depth (AOD) values found to be between 0.6 and 0.8 during the episode). High-resolution vertical profiles of clouds and aerosols are provided from CALIOP, on board of CALISPO satellite. The results suggest a significant contribution of Sahara dust to high levels of PM10 in Turkey with RAQMS and in situ time series showing similar patterns. The two data sets are found to be in agreement with a correlation of 0.87.

Quantification of the Urban Heat Island Under a Changing Climate over Anatolian Peninsula

The Anatolian Peninsula is located at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa and houses 81 cities of which 79 of them have population over 100,000. We employed some criteria to select the cities from the 81 cities. After accomplishing all the criteria, eight cities were remaining for the study. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test procedure was employed for the urban and rural stations of these cities to detect the long-term change in temperature trends. Statistical analysis of daily minimum temperatures for the period between 1965 and 2006 suggest that there is no statistically significant increase in rural areas. In contrast to the findings of the previous studies, however, all the urban sites and difference between urban and rural pairs show significant increase in temperatures, a strong indication for the existence of urban heat island (UHI) affect over the region. Regional Climate Model was also utilized to assess the changes in temperature by the end of century for the region. The findings suggest that an increase of up to 5°C is possible. Climate change effects enforced with UHI have the potential to cause serious problems for the entire region and hence needs to be studied thoroughly.

Simulated air quality and pollutant budgets over Europe in 2008

Major gaseous and particulate pollutant levels over Europe in 2008 have been simulated using the offline-coupled WRFCMAQ chemistry and transport modeling system. The simulations are compared with surface observations from the EMEP stations, ozone (O3) soundings, ship-borne O3 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations in the western Mediterranean, tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities from the SCIAMACHY instrument, and aerosol optical depths (AOD) from the AERONET. The results show that on average, surface O3 levels are underestimated by 4 to 7% over the northern European EMEP stations while they are overestimated by 7-10% over the southern European EMEP stations and underestimated in the tropospheric column (by 10-20%). Particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations are underestimated by up to 60%, particularly in southern and eastern Europe, suggesting underestimated PM sources. Larger differences are calculated for individual aerosol components, particularly for organic and elemental carbon than for the total PM mass, indicating uncertainty in the combustion sources. Better agreement has been obtained for aerosol species over urban areas of the eastern Mediterranean, particularly for nss-SO4(2), attributed to the implementation of higher quality emission inventories for that area. Simulated AOD levels are lower than the AERONET observations by 10% on average, with average underestimations of 3% north of 40°N, attributed to the low anthropogenic emissions in the model and 22% south of 40°N, suggesting underestimated natural and resuspended dust emissions. Overall, the results reveal differences in the model performance between northern and southern Europe, suggesting significant differences in the representation of both anthropogenic and natural emissions in these regions. Budget analyses indicate that O3 and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are transported from the free troposphere (FT) to the planetary boundary layer over Europe, while other species follow the reverse path and are then advected away from the source region.

The influence of atmospheric circulation types on regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara (NW Turkey)

In this study, regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara are described for the first time by means of Ward’s hierarchical cluster analysis. Daily values of winter precipitation data based on 19 meteorological stations were used for the period from 1960 to 2012. Five clusters of coherent zones were determined, namely Black Sea-Marmara, Black Sea, Marmara, Thrace, and Aegean sub-regions. To investigate the prevailing atmospheric circulation types (CTs) that cause precipitation occurrence and intensity in these five different rainfall sub-basins, objective Lamb weather type (LWT) methodology was applied to National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis of daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. Precipitation occurrence suggested that wet CTs (i.e. N, NE, NW, and C) offer a high chance of precipitation in all sub-regions. For the eastern (western) part of the region, the high probability of rainfall occurrence is shown under the influence of E (SE, S, SW) atmospheric CTs. In terms of precipitation intensity, N and C CTs had the highest positive gradients in all the sub-basins of the Marmara. In addition, although Marmara and Black Sea sub-regions have the highest daily rainfall potential during NE types, high daily rainfall totals are recorded in all sub-regions except the Black Sea during NW types.

Higher Resolution Modeling of the PM10 Levels Over Istanbul for a Winter Episode

High winter-time PM10, sulfate, nitrate and ammonium levels in Istanbul were investigated using a high resolution WRF/CMAQ mesoscale model system. The results suggested that the system was capable of producing the magnitudes. PM10 levels calculated by the model underestimated the observations with an average of 10 % at Bogazici University sampling station, whereas an overestimation of 12 % is calculated for all stations. Base case results together with the sensitivity studies pointed significant contribution of local sources.

The Impact of Anthropogenic and Biogenic Emissions on Surface Ozone Concentrations in Istanbul: A Modeling Study

Ground level ozone levels were simulated for Istanbul during a summer episode in June 2008, using MM5/CMAQ model system. Two sets of base runs were carried out in order to investigate the impact of biogenic emissions on ozone concentrations in Istanbul. The inclusion of biogenic emissions significantly improved the performance of the model, particularly the temporal variation of ozone concentrations. It was found out that biogenic NMVOCs emissions enhanced maximum ozone concentrations in the GIA up to 25 ppb. The sensitivity analysis pointed to NOx-sensitive chemistry in the region