Terence Done

Palaeoecological evidence of a historical collapse of corals at Pelorus Island, inshore Great Barrier Reef, following European settlement.

The inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have undergone significant declines in water quality following European settlement (approx. 1870 AD). However, direct evidence of impacts on coral assemblages is limited by a lack of historical baselines prior to the onset of modern monitoring programmes in the early 1980s. Through palaeoecological reconstructions, we report a previously undocumented historical collapse of Acropora assemblages at Pelorus Island (central GBR). High-precision U-series dating of dead Acropora fragments indicates that this collapse occurred between 1920 and 1955, with few dates obtained after 1980. Prior to this event, our results indicate remarkable long-term stability in coral community structure over centennial scales. We suggest that chronic increases in sediment flux and nutrient loading following European settlement acted as the ultimate cause for the lack of recovery of Acropora assemblages following a series of acute disturbance events (SST anomalies, cyclones and flood events). Evidence for major degradation in reef condition owing to human impacts prior to modern ecological surveys indicates that current monitoring of inshore reefs on the GBR may be predicated on a significantly shifted baseline.

Simulation of the effects of Acanthaster planci on the population structure of massive corals in the genus Porites: evidence of population resilience?

Scleractinian corals in the genus Porites are slow growing, can live for centuries, and can attain great size. In these respects they differ from the majority of coral species, which grow faster and live for years to decades. The predatory starfish Acanthaster planci L. feeds on a wide range of coral species including Porites spp., and during outbreaks in its populations, causes high coral mortality and injury over much of the affected reefs. Because they are slow growing and because recent outbreaks of the starfish occurred only 15 years apart, it may be argued that the Porites populations on affected reefs will be sent into a period of prolonged decline. The present study uses a size stage model of the transition matrix type to predict effects of starfish outbreaks of various frequencies on Porites populations. A transition matrix characterizing the mortality and injury caused in different Porites size classes at John Brewer Reef during an “outbreak” year was determined from field data. Transition matrices for “non-outbreak” years were constructed on the basis of realistic growth rates and postulated survivorship and recruitment schedules. The medium term (∼100 years) effects of outbreaks were simulated by alternation of a single iteration of the outbreak matrix with many iterations of each non-outbreak matrix. By varying the interval between simulated outbreaks it was possible to define combinations of growth rate, survivorship and recruitment which were viable for various outbreak intervals. Simulations based on estimates of the initial size frequency distribution, recruitment rates and colony growth rates for the John Brewer Reef population predicted that the population would remain viable in the face of outbreaks every 15 years only if juvenile and adult survivorship were high. However, within the range of colony growth rates known to occur throughout the Great Barrier Reef and at recruitment rates of the same order as those estimated in the field population, it appears that a much wider range of survivorship schedules could lead to parity or even sustained growth in the face of outbreaks recurring at intervals of from 1 to 3 decades. It is suggested that because the key measurable parameters (initial size structure, damage characteristics, recruitment rate and growth rate) are likely to be very patchy at the scale of whole reefs, no general statement concerning the prognosis for Porites would be meaningful. However the model provides a tool by which a standardized evaluation of this type of field data may be made on a reef by reef basis.

Simulation of recovery of pre-disturbance size structure in populations of Porites spp. damaged by the crown of thorns starfish Acanthaster planci

Outbreaks of the crown of thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (L.) have caused high levels of mortality and injury in corals on the Great Barrier Reef. In surveys conducted in 1985 and 1986, it was estimated that a quarter of the massive Porites spp. corals surveyed at five reefs — John Brewer, Rib, Potter, Feather and Green Island — had been killed outright. In addition, there was minor to severe injury to colonies throughout the corals size range. A population model was used to evaluate this damage. The evaluations were based on simulations of the time necessary for prior abundances of large colonies (>2 m diam) to be re-established and on simulations of the number of additional disturbances the populations could withstand before becoming locally extinct. The affect of recurrent disturbances on populations receiving recruits was also simulated. Assuming no further disturbance, the model predicts minimum recovery times in excess of 50 yr for most of the populations, and 9 to 100 yr for sub-populations within reefs. For populations subjected to repeated disturbance every 10 to 30 yr, it predicted that all large colonies would soon be lost unless there was both low background mortality and a major recruitment of Porites spp. between outbreaks. In the worst-case scenario of failed recruitment and high background mortality, four of the five populations could withstand as few as two to three additional disturbances equivalent to those earlier in this decade.

Influences of habitat and natural disturbances on contributions of massive Porites corals to reef communities

We compared densities, distributions and size frequencies of massive corals in the genus Porites on five relatively exposed, mid-shelf reefs (∼50 km offshore) in the central Great Barrier Reef with those on a sheltered inshore reef (∼10 km offshore). Data included various transect and mapping studies between 1984 and 1990, estimates of size-dependent damage from the crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci, estimated densities of herbivorous sea urchins (potential predators of juveniles), and observations of size-specific effects of tropical cyclones. Assemblages of Porites spp. on mid-shelf reefs were dominated by small colonies (2 to 10 cm diam) established either from planula larvae or from small tissue remnants that had survived A. planci predation in the early to mid-1980s. Large colonies (up to 10 m diam) were scarce, except for localized aggregations on terraces at the base of reef slopes (∼6 to 12 m deep). Extensive space suitable for settlement by coral larvae can be attributed to recurrent cyclones and A. planci outbreaks. Despite low sea urchin predation, the slowly growing Porites juveniles are likely to die from overgrowth by numerous, much faster growing corals. On the sheltered inshore reef, the coral community was dominated by very large (>5 m diam) Porites colonies, several centuries old; recruitment was mainly by fragmentation of large colonies; there was little space available for settlement, and probabilities of juvenile mortality from grazing urchins were high. Differences in settlement and early survival of Porites spp. are exacerbated by different regimes of storm damage. A model is proposed that links wave climate with the size and age reached by corals before dislodgement by storm waves, and which is consistent with observed densities and size-frequency distributions of Porites in sheltered and exposed areas.

Limited scope for latitudinal extension of reef corals

Not as deep As our climate warms, many species ranges are predicted to shift toward the warmer poles. Focusing solely on temperatures, however, ignores many factors that change across latitudes, such as the intensity of solar radiation. Muir et al. looked at global distributions of two groups of reef-building corals (see the Perspective by Kleypas). Most reef-building corals occur deep enough to be protected from surge. However, corals require sunlight to sustain their symbiotic photosynthetic algae. Because solar radiation is more limited farther away from the equator, future populations might be limited to more turbulent shallow waters. Science, this issue p. 1135; see also p. 1086 Solar irradiation during winter constrains how far coral reefs can spread sideways despite ocean warming. [Also see Perspective by Kleypas] An analysis of present-day global depth distributions of reef-building corals and underlying environmental drivers contradicts a commonly held belief that ocean warming will promote tropical coral expansion into temperate latitudes. Using a global data set of a major group of reef corals, we found that corals were confined to shallower depths at higher latitudes (up to 0.6 meters of predicted shallowing per additional degree of latitude). Latitudinal attenuation of the most important driver of this phenomenon—the dose of photosynthetically available radiation over winter—would severely constrain latitudinal coral range extension in response to ocean warming. Latitudinal gradients in species richness for the group also suggest that higher winter irradiance at depth in low latitudes allowed a deep-water fauna that was not viable at higher latitudes.

Reliability and utility of citizen science reef monitoring data collected by Reef Check Australia, 2002–2015

Reef Check Australia (RCA) has collected data on benthic composition and cover at >70 sites along >1000km of Australias Queensland coast from 2002 to 2015. This paper quantifies the accuracy, precision and power of RCA benthic composition data, to guide its application and interpretation. A simulation study established that the inherent accuracy of the Reef Check point sampling protocol is high (<±7% error absolute), in the range of estimates of benthic cover from 1% to 50%. A field study at three reef sites indicated that, despite minor observer- and deployment-related biases, the protocol does reliably document moderate ecological changes in coral communities. The error analyses were then used to guide the interpretation of inter-annual variability and long term trends at three study sites in RCAs major 2002-2015 data series for the Queensland coast.

U-Th dating reveals regional-scale decline of branching Acropora corals on the Great Barrier Reef over the past century

Significance Branching Acropora corals are highly sensitive to environmental change and warrant close monitoring to avoid irreversible changes in ecosystem health. For the Great Barrier Reef, limited baseline information of ecological dynamics prior to ∼1980 makes it difficult to understand recent ecosystem trends. We demonstrate the use of high-resolution uranium–thorium dating, modern and palaeoecological techniques to improve our understanding of mortality and recovery dynamics over much broader scales. We found a loss of resilience in ecologically important branching Acropora corals at a regional scale. This work will prove valuable to reef managers by providing a reliable baseline for ongoing monitoring and identifying reefs at risk for deterioration, especially for those where modern observations are lacking. Hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is on a trajectory of decline. However, little is known about past coral mortality before the advent of long-term monitoring (circa 1980s). Using paleoecological analysis and high-precision uranium-thorium (U-Th) dating, we reveal an extensive loss of branching Acropora corals and changes in coral community structure in the Palm Islands region of the central GBR over the past century. In 2008, dead coral assemblages were dominated by large, branching Acropora and living coral assemblages by genera typically found in turbid inshore environments. The timing of Acropora mortality was found to be occasionally synchronous among reefs and frequently linked to discrete disturbance events, occurring in the 1920s to 1960s and again in the 1980s to 1990s. Surveys conducted in 2014 revealed low Acropora cover (<5%) across all sites, with very little evidence of change for up to 60 y at some sites. Collectively, our results suggest a loss of resilience of this formerly dominant key framework builder at a regional scale, with recovery severely lagging behind predictions. Our study implies that the management of these reefs may be predicated on a shifted baseline.

An underwater trilateration

Abstract A description is presented of an underwater trilateration that was carried out to provide control points for a block adjustment of 360 overlapping photographs of a section of a coral reef.

Interactive Geolocational and Coral Compositional Visualisation of Great Barrier Reef Heat Stress Data

The Great Barrier Reef is at critical risk of rapid decline, with mass coral bleaching following heatwave conditions constituting the most recent impact on the ecosystem. Here we describe an information-rich integrative visualisation suite of tools, tailored to ecologist users, for exploring a rich data set collected from the 2002 Great Barrier Reef heat stress event. Integration of data from multiple resources demonstrates how this visualisation is easily adaptable to any equivalent data, including data integration and visualisation from coral reef monitoring programs. The toolkit also makes such data accessible to any user for education, exploration and decision-making purposes.

Response to letter regarding “Limited Scope for Latitudinal Extension of Reef Corals”

In their recent letter, Madin et al. (2016) dispute our findings in Muir et al. (2015a) that reduced levels of light during winter confine staghorn corals to shallower depths at higher latitudes and will ultimately limit their scope for latitudinal expansion as oceans warm. We based our conclusions on a rich global dataset analysed using two types of analyses: polynomial quantile regression models and species distribution models. Madin and colleagues’ reanalysis of our data focuses only on the quantile regression model, and in our view, provides no convincing quantitative evidence in support of their proposition that most species exhibit either no trend or a reverse trend to the one we described.