Tetsuo Nakazawa

Retrieval of Latent Heating from TRMM Measurements

Rainfall is a fundamental process within the Earths hydrological cycle because it represents a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, while its energetics corollary, latent heating, is the principal source of atmospheric diabatic heating well into the middle latitudes. Latent heat production itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The properties of the vertical distribution of latent heat release modulate large-scale meridional and zonal circulations within the Tropics, as well as modify the energetic efficiencies of midlatitude weather systems. This paper highlights the retrieval of latent heating from satellite measurements generated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observatory, which was launched in November 1997 as a joint American–Japanese space endeavor. Since then, TRMM measurements have been providing credible four-dimensional accounts of rainfall over the global Tropics and subtropics, information that c...

International Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Program and Mission: An Overview

Eric A. Smith , Ghassem Asrar , Yoji Furuhama , Amnon Ginati , Christian Kummerow , Vincenzo Levizzani , Alberto Mugnai , Kenji Nakamura , Robert Adler , Vincent Casse , Mary Cleave , Michele Debois , John Durning , Jared Entin , Paul Houser , Toshio Iguchi , Ramesh Kakar , Jack Kaye , Masahiro Kojima , Dennis Lettenmaier , Michael Luther , Amita Mehta , Pierre Morel , Tetsuo Nakazawa , Steven Neeck , Ken’ichi Okamoto , Riko Oki , Garudachar Raju , Marshall Shepherd , Erich Stocker , Jacques Testud , and Eric Wood 19

Tropical 45 Day Oscillations during the 1979 Northern Hemisphere Summer

Abstract Based on FGGE 1,cvel IIIb data, the structural features of 45 day perturbations over a tropical belt (15°N-15°S) during the 1979 summer are detailed. At the equator, 45 day perturbations which are primarily associated with the zonal wind components of wavenumber 1, propagate eastward (8° of longitude per day) and upward (0.7 km per day), probably indicating downward energy flux. In the Southern Hemisphere tropics (0°–15°S), the 45 day zonal mean wind perturbations propagate downward with an approximate phase speed of 0.8 km per day. In the Northern Hemisphere tropics, they are largely of standing character with the maximum amplitude (3 m s−1) near 200 mb at 15°N. There exists a strong association between monsoon activity over South Asia and changes in the intensity of the equatorial Walker circulation. When active monsoons occur over South Asia, the Walker circulation becomes stronger than usual with prominent 850 mb easterlies (200 mb easterlies) over the eastern Pacific east of the date line an...

The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR

Abstract Starting from 2003, a new typhoon surveillance program, Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), was launched. During 2004, 10 missions for eight typhoons were conducted successfully with 155 dropwindsondes deployed. In this study, the impact of these dropwindsonde data on tropical cyclone track forecasts has been evaluated with five models (four operational and one research models). All models, except the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, show the positive impact that the dropwindsonde data have on tropical cyclone track forecasts. During the first 72 h, the mean track error reductions in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Global Spectral Model (GSM) are 14%, 14%, and 19%, respectively. The tra...

The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track and Midlatitude Forecasts

A unique dataset of targeted dropsonde observations was collected during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in the autumn of 2008. The campaign was supplemented by an enhancement of the operational Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) program. For the first time, up to four different aircraft were available for typhoon observations and over 1500 additional soundings were collected. This study investigates the influence of assimilating additional observations during the two major typhoon events of T-PARC on the typhoon track forecast by the global models of the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Additionally, the influence of T-PARC observations on ECMWF midlatitude forecasts is investigated. All models show an improving tendency of typhoon track forecasts, but the degree of improvement varied fromabout20%to40%inNCEPandWRFtoacomparablylowinfluenceinECMWFandJMA.Thisislikely related to lower track forecast errors without dropsondes in the latter two models, presumably caused by a more extensive use of satellite data and four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) of ECMWF and JMA compared to three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) of NCEP and WRF. The different behavior of the models emphasizes that the benefit gained strongly depends on the quality of the first-guess field and the assimilation system.

AN EARTH-SYSTEM PREDICTION INITIATIVE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

Intercomparison of Targeted Observation Guidance for Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific

Abstract This study compares six different guidance products for targeted observations over the northwest Pacific Ocean for 84 cases of 2-day forecasts in 2006 and highlights the unique dynamical features affecting the tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in this basin. The six products include three types of guidance based on total-energy singular vectors (TESVs) from different global models, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) based on a multimodel ensemble, the deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, and the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV). The similarities among the six products are evaluated using two objective statistical techniques to show the diversity of the sensitivity regions in large, synoptic-scale domains and in smaller domains local to the TC. It is shown that the three TESVs are relatively similar to one another in both the large and the small domains while the comparisons of the DLM wind variance with other methods show rather low similarities. The ETKF and the ADSSV usua...

The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC

The typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) has been conducted since 2003 to obtain dropwindsonde observations around tropical cyclones near Taiwan. In addition, an international field project The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in which dropwindsonde observations were obtained by both surveillance and reconnaissanceflights was conducted in summer 2008 in the same region. In this study, the impact of the dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is investigated for DOTSTAR (2003‐09) and T-PARC (2008) experiments. Two operational global models from NCEP and ECMWF are used to evaluate the impact of dropwindsonde data. In addition, the impact on the two-model mean is assessed. The impact of dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is different in the NCEP and ECMWF model systems. Using the NCEP system, the assimilation of dropwindsonde data leads to improvements in 1- to 5-day track forecasts in about 60% of the cases. The differences between track forecasts with and without the dropwindsonde data are generallylargerforcasesinwhichthedataimprovedtheforecaststhanincasesinwhichtheforecastsweredegraded. Overall, the mean 1- to 5-day track forecast error is reduced by about 10%‐20% for both DOTSTAR and T-PARC cases in the NCEP system. In the ECMWF system, the impact is not as beneficial as in the NCEP system, likely because of more extensive use of satellite data and more complex data assimilation used in the former, leading to betterperformanceevenwithoutdropwindsondedata. Thestronger impactsofthedropwindsonde dataare revealed forthe3-to5-dayforecastinthetwo-modelmeanoftheNCEPandECMWFsystemsthanforeachindividualmodel.

Transition from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon

Abstract During the period from 15 February to 20 June 1979, the northward migration of the zones of low outgoing longwave radiation was most clearly defined over the convectively active continental regions of equatorial Africa, the maritime continent, and equatorial South America. Regionally, the withdrawal of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon over Indonesia and Australia was followed by the first establishment of the summer monsoon over the Malaysian Peninsula during the midtransition around 15 April, which is about two months earlier than the monsoon onset over central India. In investigating the wind changes during the transition period, smoothed time-series data were constructed by adding three components of winds; viz., the annual mean winds, which are approximately symmetric about the equator; and the yearly and half-yearly wind harmonics that are asymmetric about the equator with a distinct seasonal character. The 200 mb wind patterns during the midtransition exhibit new symmetric character w...

An Observing System Experiment for Typhoon Conson (2004) Using a Singular Vector Method and DOTSTAR Data

Abstract An Observing System Experiment (OSE) has been performed to investigate the effectiveness of dropwindsonde observations and a sensitivity analysis technique on a typhoon track forecast. Using dropwindsonde observations for Typhoon Conson at 1200 UTC 8 June 2004, which are derived from Dropwindsonde Observation for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR), four numerical experiments are conducted, which are different only in terms of the number of dropwindsonde observations used in a data assimilation system: (i) no observation is assimilated; (ii) all observations are assimilated; (iii) observations within a sensitive region as revealed by a singular vector method at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are assimilated; and (iv) observations outside the sensitive region are assimilated. In the comparison of the four track forecasts, Conson’s northeastward movement is expressed in the second and third simulations while in the first and fourth experiments Conson stays at almost the sam...