Thai-Thanh Dang

Fiscal Implication of Ageing: Projections of Age-related Spending

This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained ... Cette etude contient de nouvelles projections sur l’impact budgetaire des depenses liees a l’âge dans les pays de l’OCDE pour les cinquante prochaines annees. Ces resultats reposent sur des modeles nationaux utilisant un cadre macroeconomique et demographique normalise pour tous les pays. Les reformes recentes des regimes de retraite ont compense en partie l’incidence du vieillissement de la population sur les depenses et les situations budgetaires sous-jacentes se sont nettement ameliorees dans les annees 90. Toutefois, les depenses liees a l’âge (c’est-a-dire aux pensions de vieillesse, a la sante et aux enfants) devraient augmenter en moyenne de 6 a 7 pour cent du PIB au cours de la periode de projection. Il est donc necessaire de maintenir les efforts de reforme et de les intensifier dans plusieurs pays si l’on veut preserver la viabilite budgetaire ...

Poverty Dynamics in Four OECD Countries

This study examines the dynamics of poverty for four OECD countries (Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). It provides information on patterns of poverty, which groups stay in poverty the longest, and household/individual characteristics and life-course events which appear to be most closely associated with transitions into and out of poverty and the length of time individuals stay in poverty. The analysis finds that the number of people touched by poverty over a six year period is significantly larger that the poverty rate might suggest, but the share of those staying poor for a long time is much smaller. The data suggest that longer-term poor are concentrated among women, lone parents and older single individuals. The study finds that employment status is the main factor affecting transitions into and out of poverty and the duration of poverty ... Cette etude examine la dynamique de la pauvrete dans quatre pays de l’OCDE (Canada, Allemagne, Royaume Unis et Etats Unis). Elle fournit des informations detaillees sur la structure de la pauvrete, les groupes qui se trouvent dans la pauvrete de longue duree, les caracteristiques des menages/ individus et les evenements etroitement associes aux periodes de transitions ainsi que la longueur des periodes de pauvrete. Le nombre d’individus touches au moins une fois par la pauvrete au cours des 6 dernieres annees est plus important que ne le suggerent les taux de pauvretes statiques. En revanche, les individus subissant un etat de pauvrete persistante s’averent etre moins nombreux. Les donnees montrent que les femmes, les familles monoparentales et les retraites vivant seuls sont plus fortement concentres dans la pauvrete de longue duree. Enfin, parmi les facteurs analyses, l’emploi et ses changements apparaissent comme determinant sur les mouvements d’entree et de sortie ainsi que ...

Fiscal Implications of Ageing

This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained ...

An Age Perspective on Economic Well-Being and Social Protection in Nine OECD Countries

For a number of reasons, incomes vary strongly with age. The nature of this variation is of interest for a wide range of policy purposes. Since age structures differ across countries, knowledge about the incomes earned by different age groups is also necessary for understanding and interpreting international comparisons of overall inequality. This paper quantifies the economic well-being of different age groups and the extent to which they rely on incomes from public and private sources. The analysis aims at establishing how social benefits, and the taxes needed to finance them, affect income levels and income disparities across different age groups. Results are compared across nine OECD countries. Les revenus varient grandement avec l’âge pour un certain nombre de raisons. La nature de ces variations est interessante a plus d’un egard a des fins politiques. Comme la structure des âges differe d’un pays a l’autre, l’information relative aux revenus percus par les differents groupes d’âge est aussi necessaire pour comprendre et interpreter les comparaisons internationales de l’inegalite. Ce document quantifie le bien-etre economique des differents groupes d’âge et montre dans quelle mesure ces derniers dependent de revenus provenant de sources publiques et privees. L’analyse tend a etablir comment les prestations sociales, ainsi que les impots et contributions sociales devant les financer, influencent les niveaux et les disparites des revenus parmi differents groupes d’âge. Le document compare les resultats pour neuf pays de l’OCDE.