Howard Oxley

Fiscal Implication of Ageing: Projections of Age-related Spending

This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained ... Cette etude contient de nouvelles projections sur l’impact budgetaire des depenses liees a l’âge dans les pays de l’OCDE pour les cinquante prochaines annees. Ces resultats reposent sur des modeles nationaux utilisant un cadre macroeconomique et demographique normalise pour tous les pays. Les reformes recentes des regimes de retraite ont compense en partie l’incidence du vieillissement de la population sur les depenses et les situations budgetaires sous-jacentes se sont nettement ameliorees dans les annees 90. Toutefois, les depenses liees a l’âge (c’est-a-dire aux pensions de vieillesse, a la sante et aux enfants) devraient augmenter en moyenne de 6 a 7 pour cent du PIB au cours de la periode de projection. Il est donc necessaire de maintenir les efforts de reforme et de les intensifier dans plusieurs pays si l’on veut preserver la viabilite budgetaire ...

Poverty Dynamics in Four OECD Countries

This study examines the dynamics of poverty for four OECD countries (Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States). It provides information on patterns of poverty, which groups stay in poverty the longest, and household/individual characteristics and life-course events which appear to be most closely associated with transitions into and out of poverty and the length of time individuals stay in poverty. The analysis finds that the number of people touched by poverty over a six year period is significantly larger that the poverty rate might suggest, but the share of those staying poor for a long time is much smaller. The data suggest that longer-term poor are concentrated among women, lone parents and older single individuals. The study finds that employment status is the main factor affecting transitions into and out of poverty and the duration of poverty ... Cette etude examine la dynamique de la pauvrete dans quatre pays de l’OCDE (Canada, Allemagne, Royaume Unis et Etats Unis). Elle fournit des informations detaillees sur la structure de la pauvrete, les groupes qui se trouvent dans la pauvrete de longue duree, les caracteristiques des menages/ individus et les evenements etroitement associes aux periodes de transitions ainsi que la longueur des periodes de pauvrete. Le nombre d’individus touches au moins une fois par la pauvrete au cours des 6 dernieres annees est plus important que ne le suggerent les taux de pauvretes statiques. En revanche, les individus subissant un etat de pauvrete persistante s’averent etre moins nombreux. Les donnees montrent que les femmes, les familles monoparentales et les retraites vivant seuls sont plus fortement concentres dans la pauvrete de longue duree. Enfin, parmi les facteurs analyses, l’emploi et ses changements apparaissent comme determinant sur les mouvements d’entree et de sortie ainsi que ...

Fiscal Implications of Ageing

This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained ...

Policies for Healthy Ageing

This paper reviews policies in the area of healthy ageing. With the ageing of OECD countries’ population over coming decades, maintaining health in old age will become increasingly important. Successful policies in this area can increase the potential labour force and the supply of non-market services to others. They can also delay the need for longer-term care for the elderly. A first section briefly defines what is meant by healthy ageing and discusses similar concepts – such as “active ageing”. The paper then groups policies into four different types and within each, it describes the range of individual types of programmes that can be brought to bear to enhance improved health of the elderly. A key policy issue in this area concerns whether such programmes have a positive effect on health outcomes and whether they are costeffective. Ce document de travail examine les politiques relatives au vieillissement en bonne sante. Compte tenu du vieillissement demographique annonce dans les pays de l’OCDE au cours des prochaines decennies, preserver la bonne sante des personnes âgees deviendra de plus en plus important. Des politiques reussies dans ce domaine peuvent augmenter la main-d’oeuvre potentielle ainsi que l’offre de services non marchands. Elles peuvent aussi retarder le besoin de soins de longue duree pour les personnes âgees. Une premiere partie definit brievement ce que l’on entend par « vieillir en bonne sante » et analyse des concepts similaires – tels que le « vieillissement actif ». Le rapport presente ensuite quatre groupes de politiques et, pour chacun, les differents programmes mobilisables afin d’ameliorer l’etat de sante des personnes âgees. Une question importante sur l’action publique dans ce domaine consiste a savoir si ces programmes ont un effet positif sur les resultats de sante et s’ils sont cout-efficaces.

Policies for an Ageing Society

This paper provides a synthesis of age-related developments and policies for a range of OECD countries, drawing on recent OECD work. It describes the expected impact of ageing on expenditure and fiscal pressures taking into account the current configuration of age-related policies. Since later retirement appears to be a key policy to easing the burden of ageing, it looks at indicators of the incentives for early retirement via pension systems and other transfer programmes permitting early withdrawal from the labour market for those approaching retirement. The report discussed the different types of age-related reforms undertaken up to now and areas where further reforms appear needed ... Ce document presente une synthese des evolutions et des politiques liees au vieillissement pour un ensemble de pays de l’OCDE, basee sur des travaux recents de l’OCDE. Il decrit l’impact prevu du vieillissement sur les depenses et les pressions budgetaires en tenant compte de la configuration actuelle des politiques liees au vieillissement.Dans la mesure ou le recul de l’âge de la retraite est un moyen essentiel pour alleger le poids du vieillissement, ce papier examine certains indicateurs d’incitation a la retraite anticipee par le biais de systemes de retraite et d’autres programmes de transferts sociaux permettant aux individus approchant de la retraite de quitter plus tot le marche du travail. Ce rapport etudie les differents types de reformes liees au vieillissement mises en place jusqu’a present, ainsi que les domaines dans lesquels des reformes supplementaires seraient necessaires ...

How Will Ageing Affect Finland

In Finland, as in most OECD countries, the ageing of the population is one of the major long-term policy challenges. This paper first explores the scale of the demographic changes in Finland, the relevant institutions and their effect on the decision to retire. In light of the increase in the number of elderly expected over the coming years, various issues concerning their economic position and health care are considered. The paper then considers the impact that demographic changes will have on public finances: the cost of the pension system will increase by a third; health care spending and the cost of care for the frail elderly are also likely to rise substantially. The paper ends by outlining the policy options to copy with ageing ... En Finlande, comme dans la plupart des pays de l’OCDE, le vieillissement demographique est l’un des principaux defis que devront relever les pouvoirs publics a long terme. La premiere section de ce document examine l’ampleur de l’evolution demographique, les institutions concernees et l’effet qu’elles exercent sur la decision de depart en retraite. Compte tenu de l’augmentation prevue du nombre des personnes âgees au cours de prochaines annees, on passera en revue differents aspects de leur situation economique et des soins de sante qu’il faudra assurer. La section suivante traite de l’incidence que l’evolution demographique aura sur les finances publiques : le cout du systeme de pensions augmentera d’un tiers et il est probable que les depenses de soins de sante et le cout de la prise en charge des personnes âgees dependantes augmenteront aussi. La derniere section decrit les mesures qui pourraient etre prises pour faire face au vieillissement de la population ...

Managing public costs in the Japanese health and nursing care sector

This chapter focuses on some of the longer-term fiscal issues in Japan arising from likely developments in the health and nursing care sector.