Thiago F. Rangel

Ice age climate, evolutionary constraints and diversity patterns of European dung beetles

Current climate and Pleistocene climatic changes are both known to be associated with geographical patterns of diversity. We assess their associations with the European Scarabaeinae dung beetles, a group with high dispersal ability and well-known adaptations to warm environments. By assessing spatial stationarity in climate variability since the last glacial maximum (LGM), we find that current scarab richness is related to the location of their limits of thermal tolerance during the LGM. These limits mark a strong change in their current species richness-environment relationships. Furthermore, northern scarab assemblages are nested and composed of a phylogenetically clustered subset of large-range sized generalist species, whereas southern ones are diverse and variable in composition. Our results show that species responses to current climate are limited by the evolution of assemblages that occupied relatively climatically stable areas during the Pleistocene, and by post-glacial dispersal in those that were strongly affected by glaciations.

Mantel test in population genetics

The comparison of genetic divergence or genetic distances, estimated by pairwise FST and related statistics, with geographical distances by Mantel test is one of the most popular approaches to evaluate spatial processes driving population structure. There have been, however, recent criticisms and discussions on the statistical performance of the Mantel test. Simultaneously, alternative frameworks for data analyses are being proposed. Here, we review the Mantel test and its variations, including Mantel correlograms and partial correlations and regressions. For illustrative purposes, we studied spatial genetic divergence among 25 populations of Dipteryx alata (“Baru”), a tree species endemic to the Cerrado, the Brazilian savannas, based on 8 microsatellite loci. We also applied alternative methods to analyze spatial patterns in this dataset, especially a multivariate generalization of Spatial Eigenfunction Analysis based on redundancy analysis. The different approaches resulted in similar estimates of the magnitude of spatial structure in the genetic data. Furthermore, the results were expected based on previous knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying genetic variation in this species. Our review shows that a careful application and interpretation of Mantel tests, especially Mantel correlograms, can overcome some potential statistical problems and provide a simple and useful tool for multivariate analysis of spatial patterns of genetic divergence.

Species Richness and Evolutionary Niche Dynamics: A Spatial Pattern–Oriented Simulation Experiment

Evolutionary processes underlying spatial patterns in species richness remain largely unexplored, and correlative studies lack the theoretical basis to explain these patterns in evolutionary terms. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to evaluate, under a pattern‐oriented modeling approach, whether evolutionary niche dynamics (the balance between niche conservatism and niche evolution processes) can provide a parsimonious explanation for patterns in species richness. We model the size, shape, and location of species’ geographical ranges in a multivariate heterogeneous environmental landscape by simulating an evolutionary process in which environmental fluctuations create geographic range fragmentation, which, in turn, regulates speciation and extinction. We applied the model to the South American domain, adjusting parameters to maximize the correspondence between observed and predicted patterns in richness of about 3,000 bird species. Predicted spatial patterns, which closely resemble observed ones ( \documentclass{aastex} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{bm} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{pifont} \usepackage{stmaryrd} \usepackage{textcomp} \usepackage{portland,xspace} \usepackage{amsmath,amsxtra} \usepackage[OT2,OT1]{fontenc} \newcommand\cyr{ \renewcommand\rmdefault{wncyr} \renewcommand\sfdefault{wncyss} \renewcommand\encodingdefault{OT2} \normalfont \selectfont} \DeclareTextFontCommand{\textcyr}{\cyr} \pagestyle{empty} \DeclareMathSizes{10}{9}{7}{6} \begin{document} \landscape

A review of techniques for spatial modeling in geographical, conservation and landscape genetics

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EXPLORING PATTERNS OF INTERSPECIFIC VARIATION IN QUANTITATIVE TRAITS USING SEQUENTIAL PHYLOGENETIC EIGENVECTOR REGRESSIONS

\end{document} ), proved sensitive to niche dynamics processes. Our simulations allow evaluation of the roles of both evolutionary and ecological processes in explaining spatial patterns in species richness, revealing the enormous potential of the link between ecology and historical biogeography under integrated theoretical and methodological frameworks.

Testing the Water-Energy Theory on American Palms (Arecaceae) Using Geographically Weighted Regression

We investigated here the demographical history of Tabebuia impetiginosa (Bignoniaceae) to understand the dynamics of the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry forests (SDFs), based on coupling an ensemble approach encompassing hindcasting species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeographical analysis. We sampled 17 populations (280 individuals) in central Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS‐trnG, psbA‐trnH, and ycf6‐trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. Phylogenetic analyses based on median‐joining network showed no haplotype sharing among population but strong evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed historical constant populations size, negligible gene flow among populations, and an ancient time to most recent common ancestor dated from ~4.7 ± 1.1 Myr BP. Most divergences dated from the Lower Pleistocene, and no signal of important population size reduction was found in coalescent tree and tests of demographical expansion. Demographical scenarios were built based on past geographical range dynamic models, using two a priori biogeographical hypotheses (‘Pleistocene Arc’ and ‘Amazonian SDF expansion’) and on two additional hypotheses suggested by the palaeodistribution modelling built with several algorithms for distribution modelling and palaeoclimatic data. The simulation of these demographical scenarios showed that the pattern of diversity found so far for T. impetiginosa is in consonance with a palaeodistribution expansion during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), strongly suggesting that the current disjunct distribution of T. impetiginosa in SDFs may represent a climatic relict of a once more wide distribution.

Conservation biogeography of anurans in Brazilian Cerrado

Most evolutionary processes occur in a spatial context and several spatial analysis techniques have been employed in an exploratory context. However, the existence of autocorrelation can also perturb significance tests when data is analyzed using standard correlation and regression techniques on modeling genetic data as a function of explanatory variables. In this case, more complex models incorporating the effects of autocorrelation must be used. Here we review those models and compared their relative performances in a simple simulation, in which spatial patterns in allele frequencies were generated by a balance between random variation within populations and spatially-structured gene flow. Notwithstanding the somewhat idiosyncratic behavior of the techniques evaluated, it is clear that spatial autocorrelation affects Type I errors and that standard linear regression does not provide minimum variance estimators. Due to its flexibility, we stress that principal coordinate of neighbor matrices (PCNM) and related eigenvector mapping techniques seem to be the best approaches to spatial regression. In general, we hope that our review of commonly used spatial regression techniques in biology and ecology may aid population geneticists towards providing better explanations for population structures dealing with more complex regression problems throughout geographic space.

Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics

Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles repeatedly forced thermal zones up and down the slopes of mountains, at all latitudes. Although no one doubts that these temperature cycles have left their signature on contemporary patterns of geography and phylogeny, the relative roles of ecology and evolution are not well understood, especially for the tropics. To explore key mechanisms and their interactions in the context of chance events, we constructed a geographical range-based, stochastic simulation model that incorporates speciation, anagenetic evolution, niche conservatism, range shifts and extinctions under late Quaternary temperature cycles along tropical elevational gradients. In the model, elevational patterns of species richness arise from the differential survival of founder lineages, consolidated by speciation and the inheritance of thermal niche characteristics. The model yields a surprisingly rich variety of realistic patterns of phylogeny and biogeography, including close matches to a variety of contemporary elevational richness profiles from an elevational transect in Costa Rica. Mountaintop extinctions during interglacials and lowland extinctions at glacial maxima favour mid-elevation lineages, especially under the constraints of niche conservatism. Asymmetry in temperature (greater duration of glacial than of interglacial episodes) and in lateral area (greater land area at low than at high elevations) have opposing effects on lowland extinctions and the elevational pattern of species richness in the model—and perhaps in nature, as well.