Thomas A. A. Prowse

Propagule pressure as a driver of establishment success in deliberately introduced exotic species: fact or artefact?

A central paradigm in invasion biology is that more releases of higher numbers of individuals increase the likelihood that an exotic population successfully establishes and persists. Recently, however, it has been suggested that, in cases where the data are sourced from historical records of purposefully released species, the direction of causality is reversed, and that initial success leads to higher numbers being released. Here, we explore the implications of this alternative hypothesis, and derive six a priori predictions from it. We test these predictions using data on Acclimatization Society introductions of passerine bird species to New Zealand, which have previously been used to support both hypotheses for the direction of causality. All our predictions are falsified. This study reaffirms that the conventional paradigm in invasion biology is indeed the correct one for New Zealand passerine bird introductions, for which numbers released determine establishment success. Our predictions are not restricted to this fauna, however, and we keenly anticipate their application to other suitable datasets.

Global proliferation of cephalopods

Human activities have substantially changed the worlds oceans in recent decades, altering marine food webs, habitats and biogeochemical processes [1]. Cephalopods (squid, cuttlefish and octopuses) have a unique set of biological traits, including rapid growth, short lifespans and strong life-history plasticity, allowing them to adapt quickly to changing environmental conditions [2-4]. There has been growing speculation that cephalopod populations are proliferating in response to a changing environment, a perception fuelled by increasing trends in cephalopod fisheries catch [4,5]. To investigate long-term trends in cephalopod abundance, we assembled global time-series of cephalopod catch rates (catch per unit of fishing or sampling effort). We show that cephalopod populations have increased over the last six decades, a result that was remarkably consistent across a highly diverse set of cephalopod taxa. Positive trends were also evident for both fisheries-dependent and fisheries-independent time-series, suggesting that trends are not solely due to factors associated with developing fisheries. Our results suggest that large-scale, directional processes, common to a range of coastal and oceanic environments, are responsible. This study presents the first evidence that cephalopod populations have increased globally, indicating that these ecologically and commercially important invertebrates may have benefited from a changing ocean environment.

Passerine introductions to New Zealand support a positive effect of propagule pressure on establishment success.

There is growing consensus in the literature on biological invasions that propagule pressure (or a component thereof) is the primary determinant of establishment success in introduced species. However, a recent paper (Moulton et al. Biodiver Conserv 20:607–623, 2011) questions whether this consensus is justified. It argues that the effect of propagule pressure is not general because most of the evidence for it comes from analyses of historical bird data to New Zealand, and, moreover, that both the analyses and the data on which they are based are faulty. Moulton et al. (Biodiver Conserv 20:607–623, 2011) present a re-analysis that fails to find a relationship between establishment success and propagule pressure in New Zealand bird introductions. Here, we show why these criticisms are unjustified. A robust analysis of New Zealand bird data reveals that propagule pressure is indeed positively related to establishment success, and we present a simple population viability analysis to demonstrate why the method adopted by Moulton et al. (Biodiver Conserv 20:607–623, 2011) fails to demonstrate this result. We further show that there is abundant evidence for a relationship between establishment success and propagule pressure in biological invasions outside of historical bird introductions to New Zealand. We conclude that propagule pressure is indeed a primary determinant of establishment success in introduced species.

Dodging silver bullets: good CRISPR gene-drive design is critical for eradicating exotic vertebrates

Self-replicating gene drives that can spread deleterious alleles through animal populations have been promoted as a much needed but controversial ‘silver bullet’ for controlling invasive alien species. Homing-based drives comprise an endonuclease and a guide RNA (gRNA) that are replicated during meiosis via homologous recombination. However, their efficacy for controlling wild populations is threatened by inherent polymorphic resistance and the creation of resistance alleles via non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ)-mediated DNA repair. We used stochastic individual-based models to identify realistic gene-drive strategies capable of eradicating vertebrate pest populations (mice, rats and rabbits) on islands. One popular strategy, a sex-reversing drive that converts heterozygous females into sterile males, failed to spread and required the ongoing deployment of gene-drive carriers to achieve eradication. Under alternative strategies, multiplexed gRNAs could overcome inherent polymorphic resistance and were required for eradication success even when the probability of NHEJ was low. Strategies causing homozygotic embryonic non-viability or homozygotic female sterility produced high probabilities of eradication and were robust to NHEJ-mediated deletion of the DNA sequence between multiplexed endonuclease recognition sites. The latter two strategies also purged the gene drive when eradication failed, therefore posing lower long-term risk should animals escape beyond target islands. Multiplexing gRNAs will be necessary if this technology is to be useful for insular extirpation attempts; however, precise knowledge of homing rates will be required to design low-risk gene drives with high probabilities of eradication success.

Phenotypic homogeneity of two intertidal snails across a wave exposure gradient in South Australia

Abstract Dislodgement by the large drag forces imparted by breaking waves is an important cause of mortality for intertidal snails. The risk of drag-induced dislodgement can be reduced with: (1) a smaller shell of lower maximum projected surface area (MPSA); (2) a streamlined shell shape characterized by a squatter shell; and/or (3) greater adhesive strength attained through a larger foot area or increased foot tenacity. Snails on exposed coasts tend to express traits that increase dislodgement resistance. Such habitat-specific differences could result from direct selection against poorly adapted phenotypes on exposed shores but may reflect gastropod adaptation to high wave action achieved through phenotypic plasticity or genetic polymorphism. With this in mind, we examined the size, shape and adhesive strength of populations of two gastropod species, Austrocochlea constricta (Lamarck) and Nerita atramentosa (Reeve), from two adjacent shores representing extremes in wave exposure. Over a 5 day period, maximum wave forces were more than 10 times greater on the exposed than sheltered shore. Size–frequency distributions indicate that a predator consuming snails within the 1.3–1.8 cm length range regulates sheltered shore populations of both snail species. Although morphological scaling considerations suggest that drag forces should not place physical limits on the size of these gastropods, exposed shore populations of both snails were small relative to the maximum size documented for these species. Therefore, selective forces at the exposed site might favour smaller individuals with increased access to microhabitat refuges. Unexpectedly, however, neither snail species exhibited between-shore differences in shape, foot area or foot tenacity, which are likely to have adaptive explanations. Hence, it is possible that these snails are incapable of adaptive developmental responses to high wave action. Instead, the homogeneous and wave-exposed nature of Australias southern coastline may have favoured the evolution of generalist strategies in these species.

Evolution of yolk protein genes in the Echinodermata.

Vitellogenin genes (vtg) encode large lipid transfer proteins (LLTPs) that are typically female‐specific, functioning as precursors to major yolk proteins (MYPs). Within the phylum Echinodermata, however, the MYP of the Echinozoa (Echinoidea + Holothuroidea) is expressed by an unrelated transferrin‐like gene that has a reproductive function in both sexes. We investigated egg proteins in the Asterozoa (Asteroidea + Ophiuroidea), a sister clade to the Echinozoa, showing that eggs of the asteroid Parvulastra exigua contain a vitellogenin protein (Vtg). vtg is expressed by P. exigua, a species with large eggs and nonfeeding larvae, and by the related asterinid Patiriella regularis which has small eggs and feeding larvae. In the Asteroidea, therefore, the reproductive function of vtg is conserved despite significant life history evolution. Like the echinozoan MYP gene, asteroid vtg is expressed in both sexes and may play a role in the development of both ovaries and testes. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that a putative Vtg from the sea urchin genome, a likely pseudogene, does not clade with asteroid Vtg. We propose the following sequence as a potential pathway for the evolution of YP genes in the Echinodermata: (1) the ancestral echinoderm produced YPs derived from Vtg, (2) bisexual vtg expression subsequently evolved in the echinoderm lineage, (3) the reproductive function of vtg was assumed by a transferrin‐like gene in the ancestral echinozoan, and (4) redundant echinozoan vtg was released from stabilizing selection.

The Larval Apical Organ in the Holothuroid Chiridota gigas (Apodida): Inferences on Evolution of the Ambulacrarian Larval Nervous System

Within the deuterostomes, the similarity of the dipleurula-type larvae of echinoderms (auricularia, bipinnaria) and hemichordates (tornaria) is striking. Here we describe the serotonergic system of the auricularia larvae of the apodid sea cucumber Chiridota gigas to broaden the comparison of the dipleurula-type larval nervous system in the Holothuroidea. This larva has a simple serotonergic nervous system largely composed of the apical organ. The apical organ is a concentration of cells and fibers along, and spanning between, the portions of the ciliary band that traverse the larval apex. Bipolar and multipolar cells give rise to fibers that connect the bands. In contrast to other echinoderm larvae, this larva does not develop serotonergic cells around the mouth. The similar topology and structure of the apical organ of the auricularia and the tornaria suggests that the serotonergic apical organ of the Ambulacraria (Echinodermata Hemichordata) may have originated as a group of nerve cell bodies and fibers that developed in association with ciliary band sectors at the

Integrative Analysis of the Physical Transport Network into Australia

Effective biosecurity is necessary to protect nations and their citizens from a variety of threats, including emerging infectious diseases, agricultural or environmental pests and pathogens, and illegal wildlife trade. The physical pathways by which these threats are transported internationally, predominantly shipping and air traffic, have undergone significant growth and changes in spatial distributions in recent decades. An understanding of the specific pathways and donor-traffic hotspots created by this integrated physical transport network is vital for the development of effective biosecurity strategies into the future. In this study, we analysed the physical transport network into Australia over the period 1999–2012. Seaborne and air traffic were weighted to calculate a “weighted cumulative impact” score for each source region worldwide, each year. High risk source regions, and those source regions that underwent substantial changes in risk over the study period, were determined. An overall risk ranking was calculated by integrating across all possible weighting combinations. The source regions having greatest overall physical connectedness with Australia were Singapore, which is a global transport hub, and the North Island of New Zealand, a close regional trading partner with Australia. Both those regions with large amounts of traffic across multiple vectors (e.g., Hong Kong), and those with high levels of traffic of only one type (e.g., Bali, Indonesia with respect to passenger flights), were represented among high risk source regions. These data provide a baseline model for the transport of individuals and commodities against which the effectiveness of biosecurity controls may be assessed, and are a valuable tool in the development of future biosecurity policy.

Capturing expert uncertainty in spatial cumulative impact assessments

Understanding the spatial distribution of human impacts on marine environments is necessary for maintaining healthy ecosystems and supporting ‘blue economies’. Realistic assessments of impact must consider the cumulative impacts of multiple, coincident threats and the differing vulnerabilities of ecosystems to these threats. Expert knowledge is often used to assess impact in marine ecosystems because empirical data are lacking; however, this introduces uncertainty into the results. As part of a spatial cumulative impact assessment for Spencer Gulf, South Australia, we asked experts to estimate score ranges (best-case, most-likely and worst-case), which accounted for their uncertainty about the effect of 32 threats on eight ecosystems. Expert scores were combined with data on the spatial pattern and intensity of threats to generate cumulative impact maps based on each of the three scoring scenarios, as well as simulations and maps of uncertainty. We compared our method, which explicitly accounts for the experts’ knowledge-based uncertainty, with other approaches and found that it provides smaller uncertainty bounds, leading to more constrained assessment results. Collecting these additional data on experts’ knowledge-based uncertainty provides transparency and simplifies interpretation of the outputs from spatial cumulative impact assessments, facilitating their application for sustainable resource management and conservation.

Evidence for a broad-scale decline in giant Australian cuttlefish (Sepia apama) abundance from non-targeted survey data

Little is known about the population trajectory and dynamics of many marine invertebrates because of a lack of robust observational data. The giant Australian cuttlefish (Sepia apama) is IUCN-listed as Near Threatened because the largest known breeding aggregation of this species in northern Spencer Gulf, South Australia, has declined markedly since the turn of the century. We used by-catch records from long-term trawl surveys to derive abundance data for S. apama and commercial cuttlefish harvest data as a measure of exploitation. Using Bayesian hierarchical models to account for zero-inflation and spatial dependence in these abundance counts, we demonstrated a high probability of broad-scale declines in the density of S. apama, particularly surrounding the primary aggregation site, which supports the recent closure of the entire S. apama fishery in northern Spencer Gulf. Historical harvest data were positively correlated with S. apama density estimated from the trawl surveys, suggesting that the commercial cuttlefish catch tracks the species abundance. Our results also indicated the possibility that the known S. apama breeding grounds might be supplemented by individuals that were spawned elsewhere in northern Spencer Gulf.