Thomas A. Clair

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere (‘acid rain’) have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain; all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Biological Mercury Hotspots in the Northeastern United States and Southeastern Canada

ABSTRACT Biological mercury (Hg) hotspots were identified in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada using a data set of biotic Hg concentrations. Eight layers representing three major taxa and more than 7300 observations were used to locate five biological Hg hotspots and nine areas of concern. The yellow perch and common loon were chosen as indicator species for the human and ecological effects of Hg, respectively. Biological Hg hotspots receive elevated atmospheric Hg deposition, have high landscape sensitivity, and/or experience large reservoir fluctuations. In the Merrimack River watershed, local Hg emissions are linked to elevated local deposition and high Hg concentrations in biota. Time series data for this region suggest that reductions in Hg emissions from local sources can lead to rapid reductions of Hg in biota. An enhanced Hg monitoring network is needed to further document areas of high deposition, biological hotspots, and the response to emissions reductions and other mitigation strategies.

Assessing the Recovery of Lakes in Southeastern Canada from the Effects of Acidic Deposition

Abstract Reductions in North American sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions promoted expectations that aquatic ecosystems in southeastern Canada would soon recover from acidification. Only lakes located near smelters that have dramatically reduced emissions approach this expectation. Lakes in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario affected only by long-range sources show a general decline in sulfate (SO42−) concentrations, but with a relatively smaller compensating increase in pH or alkalinity. Several factors may contribute to the constrained (or most likely delayed) acidity response: declining base cation concentrations, drought-induced mobilization of SO42−, damaged internal alkalinity generation mechanisms, and perhaps increasing nitrate or organic anion levels. Monitoring to detect biological recovery in southeastern Canada is extremely limited, but where it occurs, there is little evidence of recovery outside of the Sudbury/Killarney area. Both the occurrence of Atlantic salmon in Nova Scotia rivers and the breeding success of Common Loons in Ontario lakes are in fact declining although factors beyond acidification also play a role. Chemical and biological models predict that much greater SO2 emission reductions than those presently required by legislation will be needed to promote widespread chemical and latterly, biological recovery. It may be unrealistic to expect that pre-industrial chemical and biological conditions can ever be reestablished in many lakes of southeastern Canada.

Predicting export of dissolved organic carbon from forested catchments in glaciated landscapes with shallow soils

[1] This study presents a simple model of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loading to surface waters that is applicable to headwater catchments in forested regions on glaciated landscapes. Average annual DOC export was highly variable among the 33 experimental catchments along an east-west transect, ranging from 0.90 to 13.74 g C/m 2 /a. It was hypothesized that the proportion of wetlands within the catchments would explain the majority of variation in average annual DOC export. To test this hypothesis, digital terrain analysis was used to derive wetlands automatically under both open and closed forest canopies by identifying the probability of a grid cell being a depression and/or flat. Using a 10 m digital elevation model (DEM) derived from readily available sources, the proportion of wetlands explained 63% of the variance in average annual DOC export among the 33 experimental catchments. Inclusion of regional climatic indicators, including the number of growing degree days (with a base of 10C) and the runoff coefficient, increased explanation of variance from 63% to 89%, once catchments with lakes (>5% of catchment area) adjacent to the catchment outlets were removed. This study shows that DOC export can be predicted accurately from headwater catchments in forested regions on glaciated landscapes using a simple model based on the proportion of wetlands and easily calculated climatic variables.

Using neural networks to assess the influence of changing seasonal climates in modifying discharge, dissolved organic carbon, and nitrogen export in eastern Canadian rivers

Changes in both air temperature and precipitation are expected as atmospheric CO2 increases because of anthropogenic activities. These changes will not be evenly distributed across seasons because of the complexity of climate patterns. Using climate, hydrology, and water chemistry data, we investigated how changes in the seasonal climates of the Atlantic Provinces of Canada would change both hydrology and geochemical cycling of 14 river basins influenced by wetlands. We calculated monthly discharge (Q) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) exports from 1983 to 1992 and developed three neural network models relating climate variability to hydrologic and geochemical fluxes from the basins. We then identified a series of potential temperature/precipitation scenarios which we applied to the models. We then studied how changes in climate regimes would affect water discharge and aquatic dissolved carbon and nitrogen released from these basins. Our results predict a complex series of possible outcomes for water and elemental fluxes. Warming or cooling in each season combined with potential changes in precipitation will cause completely different outcomes as snowpack melting dominates winter and early spring conditions and evapotranspiration controls summer and fall. A warming winter would cause less snow storage and more runoff, with little evapotranspiration. Warmer summers, on the other hand, will be influenced by evapotranspiration, and water flows will be lower. Carbon and nitrogen exports from basins generally mirror those of Q. Our results suggest that major hydrological changes in basins may lead to significant ecological and water resource impacts, especially in the spring and early summer.

Exports of carbon and nitrogen from river basins in Canada's Atlantic Provinces

The loss of carbon and organic nitrogen from the terrestrial ecosystem via streams and rivers is dependent on a number of factors such as basin vegetation, geography, geology, climate, and hydrology. We studied the export of dissolved carbon and nitrogen from 26 rivers varying in size from 45 to 92,500 km{sup 2} located in Atlantic Canada. Twenty-four of the basins studied were free of significant anthropogenic activity and were covered with coniferous and mixed hardwood forests. Our results showed that total organic carbon loss from the region, normalized for area, was approximately 29 kg ha {sup -1} yr{sup -1}, while inorganic C was considerably lower at 4.3 kg ha{sup -1} yr{sup -1}. We developed predictive statistical models using total precipitation, basin size, and basin slope to predict the export of organic carbon and nitrogen. Our results suggest that increases in regional precipitation will most likely increase the loss of organic carbon and nitrogen from terrestrial systems. We also found that inorganic carbon and nitrogen were not influenced by precipitation. Inorganic carbon seemed more influenced by geology, and inorganic nitrogen seemed more influenced by basin slope. 32 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

Gaseous carbon dioxide and methane, as well as dissolved organic carbon losses from a small temperate wetland under a changing climate

Temperate forests can contain large numbers of wetlands located in areas of low relief and poor drainage. These wetlands can make a large contribution to the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) load of streams and rivers draining the forests, as well as the exchange of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere. We studied the carbon budget of a small wetland, located in Kejimkujik National Park, Nova Scotia, Canada. The study wetland was the Pine Marten Brook site, a poor fen draining a mixed hardwood-softwood forest. We studied the loss of DOC from the wetland via the outlet stream from 1990 to 1999 and related this to climatic and hydrologic variables. We added the DOC export information to information from a previously published model describing CH4 and CO2 fluxes from the wetland as a function of precipitation and temperature, and generated a new synthesis of the major C losses from the wetland. We show that current annual C losses from this wetland amount to 0.6% of its total C mass. We then predicted that under climate changes caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 expected between 2040 and 2050, total C loss from the wetland will almost double to 1.1% of total biomass. This may convert this wetland from what we assume is currently a passive C storage area to an active source of greenhouse gases.

Changes in freshwater carbon exports from Canadian terrestrial basins to lakes and estuaries under a 2×CO2 atmospheric scenario

Rain water running through soils and wetlands will leach decomposing plant organic matter into streams and lakes in the form of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In streams, lakes and eventually estuaries, DOC can be mineralized to CO2, precipitated to sediments or taken up in biological matter, and is thus an important part of many aquatic ecosystems. Using hydrological, climatological and geographical data from 32 sites located in Canada, we developed a neural network model which allowed us to estimate DOC export from the Canadian land mass. We reapplied the model to the 32 sites plus a further 43 basins to estimate area normalized exports for various regions of the country. We estimated that 14.3×106 t of DOC are currently exported from Canadian terrestrial ecosystems. We then modified climatological inputs to the model to reflect the predicted temperature and precipitation conditions under a doubled atmospheric CO2 regime. Our model suggests that DOC exports will increase by approximately 14% under a doubled CO2 atmosphere, mostly owing to increases in runoff. Our analysis also shows that DOC export is greatest in the spring in southern Canada and summer in the north.

Trends in surface water acidification at ecological monitoring sites in southeastern Canada (1981-1993)

Atmospheric deposition and surface water chemistry have been monitored intensively at 5 geologically “sensitive” sites in southeastern Canada. The sites receive differing acid inputs that span the entire range found in Canada. Surface water data collected at 9 stations from 1981 to 1993 for SO42−, NO3−, Alkalinity, DOC, pH, Ca2+ and Mg2+ have been analyzed to detect monotonic trends. Similarities between the temporal patterns and trends for SO42−in deposition and surface water suggest that they are strongly linked at our sites. Our 13-year datasets showed significant negative SO42−trends at the 3 Ontario sites and a positive trend in Nova Scotia. A climatically-induced SO42−increase in northwestern Ontario has been reversed. Mobilization and export of adsorbed SO42−and/or reoxidized S from the basins of central Ontario sites is delaying their recovery. Two of our 9 stations (in Quebec and central Ontario) are continuing to acidify. The 2 Nova Scotia stations have the highest DOC levels and both exhibit a decreasing trend. Ionic compensation for declining SO42−varies from station to station, sometimes involving an Alk increase, sometimes a base cation decrease, and sometimes more complex combinations. Additional factors (e.g. climatic variation) also influence variable trends, and data records longer than those presently available will be needed to unequivocally verify acidification recovery.

Freshwater acidification research in Atlantic Canada: a review of results and predictions for the future

Atlantic Canada receives the lowest acid deposition amounts in eastern North America, but has some of the most acidic surface waters on the continent, due to the low buffering provided by regional bedrock and wetlands that produce natural organic acids. Southwestern and eastern parts of Nova Scotia combine poor buffering, high organic acidity, and higher acid deposition, to produce extremely low surface water pH and acid neutralization capacity (ANC) values. Although sulfate deposition is decreasing, concurrent reductions in dissolved base cations, as well as the acid-base characteristics of natural organic acids, are not allowing the recovery of ANC or surface water pH. Spring-time acid pulses occur in Atlantic Canada, though these have been reduced in severity with decreases in winter acid deposition, while autumnal low pH pulses caused by organic acids are a regular occurence in Nova Scotia and must be separated from mineral acidity pulses. Geochemical modeling using both critical load and dynamic appr...