David P. Schwartz

Paleoseismology Along the 1980 Surface Rupture of the Irpinia Fault' Implications for Earthquake Recurrence in the Southern Apennines, Italy

The Irpinia fault was the source of the Ms 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake and produced the first unequivocal historical surface faulting in Italy. Trenching of the 1980 fault scarp at Piano di Pecore, a flat intermontane basin about 5 km south of the 1980 instrumental epicenter, provides the first data on earthquake recurrence intervals, slip per event, and slip rate on a major normal fault in the Southern Apennines fault zone. The trenches exposed evidence of four pre-1980 paleoearthquakes that occurred during the past 8600 years. A best estimate average recurrence interval is 2150 years, although the time interval between individual events varies by as much as a factor of 2. Each paleo earthquake is similar to the 1980 surface rupture in amount of slip and style of deformation, which suggests that the 1980 event is characteristic for the Irpinia fault. Slip per event values average 61 cm. The net vertical displacement of 2.12–2.36 m since 8600 cal year B.P. observed in the trenches gives a vertical slip rate of 0.25–0.35 mm/yr, a dip slip rate of 0.29–0.40 mm/yr, and an extension rate of 0.14–0.20 mm/yr. Although fault behavior data are only available for the Irpinia fault they provide a starting point for evaluating earthquake recurrence and rates of deformation in southern Apennines. They suggest that (1) fault specific earthquake recurrence intervals based on the historical seismic record overestimates the occurrence of large magnitude (M7) earthquakes and (2) the Holocene rate of extension across the Apennines is ≤1 mm/yr. The 1980 earthquake and the paleoseismologic observations show that repeated and localized surface faulting occurs in southern Apennines and leaves subtle but distinct geomorphic evidence that can be detected with detailed and careful investigation.

The Wasatch fault zone, utah—segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utahs population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. We have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1–2 mm a−1, recurrence intervals of 2000–4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of <0.5 mm a−1 recurrence intervals of ≥10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2–4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene; latest Pleistocene (14–15 ka) deposits commonly have scarps as much as 15–20 m in height. Segments identified from paleoseismological studies of other major late Quaternary normal faults in the northern Basin and Range province are 20–25 km long, or about half of that proposed for the medial segments of the WFZ. Paleoseismological records for the past 6000 years indicate that a major surface-rupturing earthquake has occurred along one of the medial segments about every 395 ± 60 years. However, between about 400 and 1500 years ago, the WFZ experienced six major surface-rupturing events, an average of one event every 220 years, or about twice as often as expected from the 6000-year record. This pattern of temporal clustering is similar to that of the central Nevada—eastern California Seismic Belt in the western part of the Basin and Range province, where 11 earthquakes of M > 6.5 have occurred since 1860. Although the time scale of the clustering is different—130 years vs 1100 years—we consider the central Nevada—eastern California Seismic Belt to be a historic analog for movement on the WFZ during the past 1500 years. We have found no evidence that surface-rupturing events occurred on the WFZ during the past 400 years, a time period which is twice the average intracluster recurrence interval and equal to the average Holocene recurrence interval. In particular, the Brigham City segment (the northernmost medial segment) has not ruptured in the past 3600 years—a period that is about three times longer than this segments average recurrence interval during the early and middle Holocene. Although the WFZs seismological record is one of relative quiescence, a comparison with other historic surface-rupturing earthquakes in the region suggests that earthquakes having moment magnitudes of 7.1–7.4 (or surface-wave magnitudes of 7.5–7.7)—each associated with tens of kilometers of surface rupture and several meters of normal dip slip—have occurred about every four centuries during the Holocene and should be expected in the future.

Surface Rupture and Slip Distribution of the Denali and Totschunda Faults in the 3 November 2002 M 7.9 Earthquake, Alaska

The 3 November 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake resulted in 341 km of surface rupture on the Susitna Glacier, Denali, and Totschunda faults. The rupture proceeded from west to east and began with a 48-km-long break on the previously unknown Susitna Glacier thrust fault. Slip on this thrust averaged about 4 m (Crone et al. , 2004). Next came the principal surface break, along 226 km of the Denali fault, with average right-lateral offsets of 4.5–5.1 m and a maximum offset of 8.8 m near its eastern end. The Denali fault trace is commonly left stepping and north side up. About 99 km of the fault ruptured through glacier ice, where the trace orientation was commonly influenced by local ice fabric. Finally, slip transferred southeastward onto the Totschunda fault and continued for another 66 km where dextral offsets average 1.6–1.8 m. The transition from the Denali fault to the Totschunda fault occurs over a complex 25-km-long transfer zone of right-slip and normal fault traces. Three methods of calculating average surface slip all yield a moment magnitude of M w 7.8, in very good agreement with the seismologically determined magnitude of M 7.9. A comparison of strong-motion inversions for moment release with our slip distribution shows they have a similar pattern. The locations of the two largest pulses of moment release correlate with the locations of increasing steps in the average values of observed slip. This suggests that slip-distribution data can be used to infer moment release along other active fault traces. Online Material : Descriptions and photographs of localities with offset measurements.

Dating offset fans along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault using cosmogenic 26Al and 10Be

Analysis of cosmogenic 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al in samples collected from exposed boulders (n = 20) and from buried sediment (n = 3) from offset fans along the San Andreas fault near Little Rock, California, yielded ages, ranging from 16 to 413 ka, which increase with dis-Lance from their source at the mouth of Little Rock Creek. In order to determine the age of the relatively younger fans, the erosion rate of the boulders and the cosmogenic nuclide inheritance from exposure prior to deposition in the fan were established. Cosmogenic nuclide inheritance values that range between 8.5 x 10 3 and 196 × 10 3 atoms 1 0 Be g - 1 quartz were determined by measuring the concentrations and ratios of 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al in boulders (n = 10) and fine sediment (n = 7) at the outlet of the present active stream. Boulder erosion rate, ranging between 17 and 160 mm k.y. - 1 , was estimated by measuring 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al concentrations in nearby bedrock outcrops (n = 8). Since the boulders on the fans represent the most resistant rocks in this environment, we used the lowest rate for the age calculations. Monte Carlo simulations were used to determine ages of 16 ′ 5 and 29 ′ 7 ka for the two younger fan surfaces. Older fans (older than 100 ka) were dated by analyzing 1 0 Be and 2 6 Al concentrations in buried sand samples. The ages of the three oldest fans range between 227 ′ 242 and 413 ′ 185 ka. Although fan age determinations are accompanied by large uncertainties, the results of this study show a clear trend of increasing fan ages with increasing distance from the source near Little Rock Creek and provide a long-term slip rate along this section of the San Andreas fault. Slip rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault for the past 413 k.y. can be determined in several ways. The average slip rate calculated from the individual fan ages is 4.2 ′ 0.9 cm yr - 1 . A linear regression through the data points implies a slip rate of 3.7 ′ 1.0 cm yr - 1 . A most probable slip rate of 3.0 ′ 1.0 cm yr - 1 is determined by using a Χ 2 test. These rates suggest that the average slip along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault has been relatively constant over this time period. The slip rate along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault, determined in this study, agrees well with previous slip rate calculations for the Quaternary.

Evidence for Large Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault at the Wrightwood, California, Paleoseismic Site: a.d. 500 to Present

We present structural and stratigraphic evidence from a paleoseismic site near Wrightwood, California, for 14 large earthquakes that occurred on the southern San Andreas fault during the past 1500 years. In a network of 38 trenches and creek-bank exposures, we have exposed a composite section of interbedded debris flow deposits and thin peat layers more than 24 m thick; fluvial deposits occur along the northern margin of the site. The site is a 150-m-wide zone of deformation bounded on the surface by a main fault zone along the northwest margin and a secondary fault zone to the southwest. Evidence for most of the 14 earthquakes occurs along structures within both zones. We identify paleoearthquake horizons using in-filled fissures, scarps, multiple rupture terminations, and widespread folding and tilting of beds. Ages of stratigraphic units and earthquakes are constrained by historic data and 72 14C ages, mostly from samples of peat and some from plant fibers, wood, pine cones, and charcoal. Comparison of the long, well-resolved paleoseimic record at Wrightwood with records at other sites along the fault indicates that rupture lengths of past earthquakes were at least 100 km long. Paleoseismic records at sites in the Coachella Valley suggest that each of the past five large earthquakes recorded there ruptured the fault at least as far northwest as Wrightwood. Comparisons with event chronologies at Pallett Creek and sites to the northwest suggests that approximately the same part of the fault that ruptured in 1857 may also have failed in the early to mid-sixteenth century and several other times during the past 1200 years. Records at Pallett Creek and Pitman Canyon suggest that, in addition to the 14 earthquakes we document, one and possibly two other large earthquakes ruptured the part of the fault including Wrightwood since about a.d. 500. These observations and elapsed times that are significantly longer than mean recurrence intervals at Wrightwood and sites to the southeast suggest that at least the southermost 200 km of the San Andreas fault is near failure.

Denali fault slip rates and Holocene–late Pleistocene kinematics of central Alaska

The Denali fault is the principal intracontinental strike-slip fault accommodating deformation of interior Alaska associated with the Yakutat plate convergence. We obtained the first quantitative late Pleistocene–Holocene slip rates on the Denali fault system from dating offset geomorphic features. Analysis of cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in boulders ( n = 27) and sediment ( n = 13) collected at seven sites, offset 25–170 m by the Denali and Totschunda faults, gives average ages that range from 2.4 ± 0.3 ka to 17.0 ± 1.8 ka. These offsets and ages yield late Pleistocene– Holocene average slip rates of 9.4 ± 1.6, 12.1 ± 1.7, and 8.4 ± 2.2 mm/yr−1 along the western, central, and eastern Denali fault, respectively, and 6.0 ± 1.2 mm/yr−1 along the Totschunda fault. Our results suggest a westward decrease in the mean Pleistocene– Holocene slip rate. This westward decrease likely results from partitioning of slip from the Denali fault system to thrust faults to the north and west.

A 100-year average recurrence interval for the San Andreas fault at Wrightwood, California

Evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the San Andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of Los Angeles, California, indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought. Rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150-meter-wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21-meter-thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers. Fault scarps, colluvial wedges, fissure infills, upward termination of ruptures, and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470.

Late Pleistocene to Holocene slip rates for the Gurvan Bulag thrust fault (Gobi-Altay, Mongolia) estimated with 10Be dates

[1] We surveyed morphotectonic markers along the central part of the Gurvan Bulag thrust, a fault that ruptured with the Bogd fault during the Gobi-Altay earthquake (1957, M 8.3), to document climatic and tectonic processes along the fault for the late PleistoceneHolocene period. The markers were dated using 10 Be produced in situ. Two major periods of alluviation ended at 131 ± 20 and 16 ± 4.8 ka. These appear to be contemporaneous with global climatic changes at the terminations of marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2. The vertical slip rates, determined from offset measurements and surfaces ages, are 0.14 ± 0.03 mm/yr over the late Pleistocene-Holocene and between 0.44 ± 0.11 and 1.05 ± 0.25 mm/yr since the end of the late Pleistocene. The higher of these slip rates for the last � 16 kyr is consistent with paleoseismic investigations along the fault [Prentice et al., 2002], and suggests that, at the end of late Pleistocene, the fault evolved from quiescence to having recurrence intervals of 4.0 ± 1.2 kyr for surface ruptures with � 4 m vertical offset (similar to that of 1957). The inferred recurrence interval is comparable to that of the Bogd fault (3.7 ± 1.3 kyr) suggesting that the two faults may have ruptured together also earlier during the last � 16 kyr. INDEX TERMS: 7221 Seismology: Paleoseismology; 1208 Geodesy and Gravity: Crustal movements—intraplate (8110); 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology (1625); 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and seismotectonics; 8107 Tectonophysics: Continental neotectonics; KEYWORDS: Late Pleistocene, Holocene, thrust fault, slip rate, 10Be dating, Mongolia

A Record of Large Earthquakes on the Southern Hayward Fault for the Past 500 Years

The Hayward fault, a major branch of the right-lateral San Andreas fault system, traverses the densely populated eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. We conducted a paleoseismic investigation to better understand the Hayward fault9s past earthquake behavior. The site is near the south end of Tyson9s Lagoon, a sag pond formed in a right step of the fault in Fremont. Because the Hayward fault creeps at the surface, we identified paleoseismic events using features that we judge to be unique to ground ruptures or the result of strong ground motion, such as the presence of fault-scarp colluvial deposits and liquefaction. We correlate the most recent event evidence (E1) to the historical 1868 M 6.9 earthquake that caused liquefaction in the pond and recognize three additional paleoruptures since A.D. 1470 ± 110 yr. Event ages were estimated by chronological modeling, which incorporated historical and stratigraphic information and radiocarbon and pollen data. Modeled, mean age and 95-percentile ranges of the three earlier events are A.D. 1730 (1650-1790) yr (E2), A.D. 1630 (1530-1740) yr (E3), and A.D. 1470 (1360-1580) (E4). The ages of these paleoearthquakes yield a mean recurrence of 130 ± 40 yr. Although the mean recurrence is well determined for the period A.D. 1470-1868, individual intervals are less well determined: E1-E2, 140 +80/-70 yr; E2-E3, 100 +90/-100 yr; and E3-E4, 150 +130/-110 yr.

A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA)

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.