Thomas E. Noce

Shear-Wave Velocity of Surficial Geologic Sediments in Northern California: Statistical Distributions and Depth Dependence

Shear-wave velocities of shallow surficial geologic units were measured at 210 sites in a 140-km2 area in the greater Oakland, California, area near the margin of San Francisco Bay. Differences between average values of shear-wave velocity for each geologic unit computed by alternative approaches were in general smaller than the observed variability. Averages estimated by arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and slowness differed by 1 to 8%, while coefficients of variation ranged from 14 to 25%. With the exception of the younger Bay mud that underlies San Francisco Bay, velocities of the geologic units are approximately constant with depth. This suggests that shear-wave velocities measured at different depths in these surficial geologic units do not need to be normalized to account for overburden stress in order to compute average values. The depth dependence of the velocity of the younger Bay mud most likely is caused by consolidation. Velocities of each geologic unit are consistent with a normal statistical distribution. Average values increase with geologic age, as has been previously reported. Velocities below the water table are about 7% less than those above it.

Liquefaction hazard mapping with LPI in the Greater Oakland, California, area

Cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) of surficial geologic units were used to define the liquefaction hazard in a 140-km2 area along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. LPI values were computed for 202 cone penetration tests conducted in surficial geologic units in the study area. The hazard of each unit was defined by the cumulative frequency at LPI=5. The distributions predict that 73% and 3%, respectively, of the area underlain by artificial fill and Holocene alluvial fan deposits will show surface manifestations of liquefaction during a M7.1 earthquake on the nearby Hayward Fault. The predictions are consistent with recent earthquakes in other areas where similar types of deposits experienced near-field ground motion.

Mapping NEHRP VS30 site classes

Site-amplification potential in a 140-km2 area on the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay, California, was mapped with data from 210 seismic cone penetration test (SCPT) soundings. NEHRP VS30 values were computed on a 50-m grid by both taking into account the thickness and using mean values of locally measured shear-wave velocities of shallow geologic units. The resulting map of NEHRP VS30 site classes differs from other published maps that (1) do not include unit thickness and (2) are based on regional compilations of velocity. Although much of the area in the new map is now classified as NEHRP Site Class D, the velocities of the geologic deposits within this area are either near the upper or lower VS30 boundary of Class D. If maps of NEHRP site classes are to be based on geologic maps, velocity distributions of geologic units may need to be considered in the definition of VS30 boundaries of NEHRP site classes.

Predicted Liquefaction of East Bay Fills During a Repeat of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake

Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M∼7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault.

Liquefaction at Oceano, California, during the 2003 San Simeon Earthquake

The 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon, California, earthquake caused liquefaction-induced lateral spreading at Oceano at an unexpectedly large distance from the seismogenic rupture. We conclude that the liquefaction was caused by ground motion that was enhanced by both rupture directivity in the mainshock and local site amplification by unconsolidated fine-grained deposits. Liquefaction occurred in sandy artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand and fluvial deposits. The largest and most damaging lateral spread was caused by liquefaction of artificial fill; the head of this lateral spread coincided with the boundary between the artificial fill and undisturbed eolian sand deposits. Values of the liquefaction potential index, in general, were greater than 5 at liquefaction sites, the threshold value that has been proposed for liquefaction hazard mapping. Although the mainshock ground motion at Oceano was not recorded, peak ground acceleration was estimated to range from 0.25 and 0.28 g on the basis of the liquefaction potential index and aftershock recordings. The estimates fall within the range of peak ground acceleration values associated with the modified Mercalli intensity = VII reported at the U.S. Geological Survey (usgs) “Did You Feel It?” web site.

Scenario Liquefaction Hazard Maps of Santa Clara Valley, Northern California

Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. These curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M 7.8 event on the San Andreas fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M 6.7 event on the Hayward fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M 6.9 event on the Calaveras fault. Ground motions were esti- mated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is pre- dicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M 7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5 m deep water table is assumed, and from 0.10 to 0.14, if a 5 m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.