Thomas L. Holzer

Dynamics of Liquefaction During the 1987 Superstition Hills, California, Earthquake

Simultaneous measurements of seismically induced pore-water pressure changes and surface and subsurface accelerations at a site undergoing liquefaction caused by the Superstition Hills, California, earthquake (24 November 1987; M = 6.6) reveal that total pore pressures approached lithostatic conditions, but, unexpectedly, after most of the strong motion ceased. Excess pore pressures were generated once horizontal acceleration exceeded a threshold value.

Land subsidence caused by the East Mesa geothermal field, California, observed using SAR interferometry

Interferometric combination of pairs of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired by the ERS-1 satellite maps the deformation field associated with the activity of the East Mesa geothermal plant, located in southern California. SAR interferometry is applied to this flat area without the need of a digital terrain model. Several combinations are used to ascertain the nature of the phenomenon. Short term interferograms reveal surface phase changes on agricultural fields similar to what had been observed previously with SEASAT radar data. Long term (2 years) interferograms allow the study of land subsidence and improve prior knowledge of the displacement field, and agree with existing, sparse levelling data. This example illustrates the power of the interferometric technique for deriving accurate industrial intelligence as well as its potential for legal action, in cases involving environmental damages.

Shear-Wave Velocity of Surficial Geologic Sediments in Northern California: Statistical Distributions and Depth Dependence

Shear-wave velocities of shallow surficial geologic units were measured at 210 sites in a 140-km2 area in the greater Oakland, California, area near the margin of San Francisco Bay. Differences between average values of shear-wave velocity for each geologic unit computed by alternative approaches were in general smaller than the observed variability. Averages estimated by arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and slowness differed by 1 to 8%, while coefficients of variation ranged from 14 to 25%. With the exception of the younger Bay mud that underlies San Francisco Bay, velocities of the geologic units are approximately constant with depth. This suggests that shear-wave velocities measured at different depths in these surficial geologic units do not need to be normalized to account for overburden stress in order to compute average values. The depth dependence of the velocity of the younger Bay mud most likely is caused by consolidation. Velocities of each geologic unit are consistent with a normal statistical distribution. Average values increase with geologic age, as has been previously reported. Velocities below the water table are about 7% less than those above it.

Liquefaction hazard mapping with LPI in the Greater Oakland, California, area

Cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) of surficial geologic units were used to define the liquefaction hazard in a 140-km2 area along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. LPI values were computed for 202 cone penetration tests conducted in surficial geologic units in the study area. The hazard of each unit was defined by the cumulative frequency at LPI=5. The distributions predict that 73% and 3%, respectively, of the area underlain by artificial fill and Holocene alluvial fan deposits will show surface manifestations of liquefaction during a M7.1 earthquake on the nearby Hayward Fault. The predictions are consistent with recent earthquakes in other areas where similar types of deposits experienced near-field ground motion.

Liquefaction, Ground Oscillation, and Soil Deformation at the Wildlife Array, California

Excess pore-water pressure and liquefaction at the Wildlife Liquefaction Array in 1987 were caused by deformation associated with both high-frequency strong ground motion and 5.5-second-period Love waves. The Love waves produced large (∼1.5%) cyclic shear strains well after the stronger high-frequency ground motion abated. These cyclic strains generated approximately from 13 to 35% of the excess pore-water pressure in the liquefied layer and caused excess pore-water pressures ultimately to reach effective overburden stress. The deformation associated with the Love waves explains the “postearthquake” increase of pore-water pressure that was recorded at the array. This explanation suggests that conventional methods for predicting liquefaction based on peak ground acceleration are incomplete and may need to consider cyclic strains associated with long-period surface waves. A postearthquake survey of an inclinometer casing indicated permanent shear strain associated with lateral spreading primarily occurred in the upper part of the liquefied layer. Comparison of cone penetration test soundings conducted after the earthquake with pre-earthquake soundings suggests sleeve friction increased. Natural lateral variability of the liquefied layer obscured changes in tip resistance despite a ∼1% reduction in volume. The large oscillatory motion associated with surface waves explains ground oscillation that has been reported at some liquefaction sites during earthquakes.

Mapping NEHRP VS30 site classes

Site-amplification potential in a 140-km2 area on the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay, California, was mapped with data from 210 seismic cone penetration test (SCPT) soundings. NEHRP VS30 values were computed on a 50-m grid by both taking into account the thickness and using mean values of locally measured shear-wave velocities of shallow geologic units. The resulting map of NEHRP VS30 site classes differs from other published maps that (1) do not include unit thickness and (2) are based on regional compilations of velocity. Although much of the area in the new map is now classified as NEHRP Site Class D, the velocities of the geologic deposits within this area are either near the upper or lower VS30 boundary of Class D. If maps of NEHRP site classes are to be based on geologic maps, velocity distributions of geologic units may need to be considered in the definition of VS30 boundaries of NEHRP site classes.

Sand boils without earthquakes

Sedimentary deformation caused by liquefaction has become a popular means for inferring prehistoric strong earthquakes. In this report, we describe a new mechanism for generating such features in the absence of earthquakes. Sand boils and a 180-m-long sand dike formed in Fremont Valley, California, when sediment-laden surface runoff was intercepted along the upslope part of a 500-m-long preexisting ground crack, flowed subhorizonally in the crack, and then flowed upward in the downslope part of the crack where it discharged as sand boils on the land surface. If the sand boils and their feeder dike were stratigraphically preserved, they could be misinterpreted as evidence for earthquake-induced liquefaction.

Global Earthquake Fatalities and Population

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

Predicted Liquefaction of East Bay Fills During a Repeat of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake

Predicted conditional probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction during a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco (M7.8) earthquake range from 0.54 to 0.79 in the area underlain by the sandy artificial fills along the eastern shore of San Francisco Bay near Oakland, California. Despite widespread liquefaction in 1906 of sandy fills in San Francisco, most of the East Bay fills were emplaced after 1906 without soil improvement to increase their liquefaction resistance. They have yet to be shaken strongly. Probabilities are based on the liquefaction potential index computed from 82 CPT soundings using median (50th percentile) estimates of PGA based on a ground-motion prediction equation. Shaking estimates consider both distance from the San Andreas Fault and local site conditions. The high probabilities indicate extensive and damaging liquefaction will occur in East Bay fills during the next M∼7.8 earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault.

Loma Prieta damage largely attributed to enhanced ground shaking

Earthquake hazards are commonly treated independently by Earth scientists, yet when a large earthquake occurs, property losses are seldom totaled separately for each earthquake hazard. Four years after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake rolled through northern California, a quantitative answer to the following question is not yet available: How much damage was caused by ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides, tectonic ground rupture, or tsunami? Although the consequences of one earthquake do not necessarily follow for others, an answer to this question will help guide public policy and set research priorities. The cost effectiveness of earthquake hazard mitigation can be improved when the relative significance of earthquake hazards is known because it enables public agencies to concentrate mitigation efforts on the most portentous hazards.