Thomas M. Fraker

The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs

This study investigates empirically the strengths and limitations of using experimental versus nonexperimental designs for evaluating employment and training programs. The assessment involves comparing results from an experimental-design study-the National Supported Work Demonstration-with the estimated impacts of Supported Work based on analyses using comparison groups constructed from the Current Population Surveys. The results indicate that nonexperimental designs cannot be relied on to estimate the effectiveness of employment programs. Impact estimates tend to be sensitive both to the comparison group construction methodology and to the analytic model used. There is currently no way a priori to ensure that the results of comparison group studies will be valid indicators of the program impacts.

The effect of food stamps on labor supply: A bivariate selection model

Abstract Although there is a large literature on the effects of U.S. transfer programs on labor supply, this is the first such study of the Food Stamp Program. We model the nonlinearity and nonconvexity of the budget constraint and use maximum-likelihood methods to estimate hours- of-work functions for female heads of household, the largest recipient group in the program. We also model the joint response to AFDC and Food Stamps and we account for the existence of a significant number of eligible households who do not participate in the programs. A three- equation, bivariate selection model is estimated on a sample of eligible households with maximum likelihood.

The Effect of Food Stamp Cashout on Food Expenditures: An Assessment of the Findings from Four Demonstrations

Using findings from four demonstrations, we examine estimates of the effect on household food expenditures of converting food stamps into a cash transfer. We provide arguments for why the estimate produced by one of the demonstrations should be regarded as an outlier. The disparity in the difference-in-means estimates from the remaining three demonstrations is reduced when each is normalized by dividing by the average value of benefits in the respective demonstration site. The normalized estimates imply a reduction in food expenditures of between 18 and 28 cents for each dollar of food stamps cashed out. At the aggregate level, these estimates imply that nationwide cashout would result in a reduction in household food spending of between 4.2 and 6.5 billion dollars, whereas the associated reduction in the cost of administering the Food Stamp Program would be about 0.3 billion dollars.

Effective Tax Rates and Guarantees in the AFDC Program, 1967-1982

Estimates of effective tax rates on earned and unearned income and estimates of effective guarantees in the AFDC program by state are provided for the period 1967-1982. The results indicate that effective real guarantees fell every year from 1967 to 1981 but stabilized in 1982. Effective tax rates on unearned income rose steadily from 1967 to 1981 and took a particularly large additional jump in 1982. Effective tax rates on earned income fell after 1967, but then gradually rose throughout the 1970s until 1982, when they took a much larger jump. Thus, guarantees fell and tax rates rose over the 1970s as tight budgets forced states to restrict benefits, and in the early 1980s tax rates were pushed even higher by federal legislation.

The Dietary Impacts of the School Breakfast Program

This study examines the dietary impacts of the School Breakfast Program based on twenty-four-hour dietary recall data collected during the 1980–81 school year. An important finding is that program availability has no significant relationship with the likelihood of eating breakfast, suggesting that a major program policy objective—to provide a breakfast to children who would not otherwise eat one—is not being achieved. Principal findings from the nutrient intake analysis are: (a) calcium intake, both at breakfast and over twenty-four hours, is positively related to program participation; (b) participation in the program is associated with lower intakes of cholesterol, both at breakfast and over twenty-four hours; and (c) iron intake at breakfast is negatively related to program participation.

The Social Security Administration's youth transition demonstration projects

The Social Security Administration (SSA) is funding Youth Transition Demonstration (YTD) projects in multiple sites across the country. These projects seek to improve transitions to adulthood for youth whose disabilities are so severe that they either are currently receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) or Social Security disability benefits, or are at high risk of receiving them in the future. Youth participating in the projects are eligible for more generous earnings disregards and other incentives under SSA waivers of certain disability program rules. In addition, the projects provide them with individualized employment and benefits planning services. The waivers and services are designed to increase the likelihood that the YTD participants will become employed, earn enough to reduce their disability benefits, and eventually leave the disability rolls. Under contract with SSA, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. is conducting a rigorous random assignment evaluation of six of the demonstration projects. Approximately 880 youth at each site who agree to participate in the evaluation are being randomly assigned to treatment or control groups. The treatment group members are eligible for the SSA waivers and YTD services; the control group members are eligible for neither, but they can receive standard disability program work incentives and whatever alternative services may be available in their communities. Mathematica is gathering data on the treatment and control group members for up to four years following random assignment through surveys and SSA administrative records. By comparing mean values of outcomes such as earnings and disability benefit amounts for the treatment and control groups, the evaluation will assess whether the YTD projects are successful at improving transitions to adulthood. Findings from the evaluation will be presented in site-specific interim reports in 2010-2012 and in a comprehensive final report in 2014.

An Analysis of 1-Year Impacts of Youth Transition Demonstration Projects

This article examines the impacts of the Youth Transition Demonstration, an initiative of the Social Security Administration (SSA) to improve employment outcomes for youth with disabilities. Based on a random assignment design, the analysis uses data from a 1-year follow-up survey and SSA administrative records for 5,203 youth in six research sites to estimate demonstration effects. Three of the six demonstration projects had positive impacts on the rate at which youth were employed during the year after they entered the evaluation. Those impacts were concentrated in sites where the projects provided more hours of services, counterfactual services were weak, and the target population of youth had more severe disabilities.

Impact of Early Work Experiences on Subsequent Paid Employment for Young Adults With Disabilities

To better understand how early work experience shapes subsequent employment outcomes for young people (ages 18 to 20) with disabilities, we analyzed longitudinal data from the Youth Transition Demonstration (YTD) evaluation to test whether the employment experiences of 1,053 youth during the initial year after entry affected their employment during the third year after entry. To derive causal estimates, we used a dynamic-panel estimation model to account for time-invariant unobserved individual characteristics that may be correlated with youth’s self-selection into both early and later employment. We also controlled for other socioeconomic and health factors that may affect later employment. We found that early work experience increases the probability of being employed 2 years later by 17 percentage points. This estimate is an important advancement over the correlational approaches that characterize the current literature and provides stronger evidence that early work experience is a key determinant of subsequent labor market success.