Thomas Maiwald

Structural and practical identifiability analysis of partially observed dynamical models by exploiting the profile likelihood

MOTIVATION Mathematical description of biological reaction networks by differential equations leads to large models whose parameters are calibrated in order to optimally explain experimental data. Often only parts of the model can be observed directly. Given a model that sufficiently describes the measured data, it is important to infer how well model parameters are determined by the amount and quality of experimental data. This knowledge is essential for further investigation of model predictions. For this reason a major topic in modeling is identifiability analysis. RESULTS We suggest an approach that exploits the profile likelihood. It enables to detect structural non-identifiabilities, which manifest in functionally related model parameters. Furthermore, practical non-identifiabilities are detected, that might arise due to limited amount and quality of experimental data. Last but not least confidence intervals can be derived. The results are easy to interpret and can be used for experimental planning and for model reduction. AVAILABILITY An implementation is freely available for MATLAB and the PottersWheel modeling toolbox at http://web.me.com/andreas.raue/profile/software.html. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Dynamical modeling and multi-experiment fitting with PottersWheel

Motivation: Modelers in Systems Biology need a flexible framework that allows them to easily create new dynamic models, investigate their properties and fit several experimental datasets simultaneously. Multi-experiment-fitting is a powerful approach to estimate parameter values, to check the validity of a given model, and to discriminate competing model hypotheses. It requires high-performance integration of ordinary differential equations and robust optimization. Results: We here present the comprehensive modeling framework Potters-Wheel (PW) including novel functionalities to satisfy these requirements with strong emphasis on the inverse problem, i.e. data-based modeling of partially observed and noisy systems like signal transduction pathways and metabolic networks. PW is designed as a MATLAB toolbox and includes numerous user interfaces. Deterministic and stochastic optimization routines are combined by fitting in logarithmic parameter space allowing for robust parameter calibration. Model investigation includes statistical tests for model-data-compliance, model discrimination, identifiability analysis and calculation of Hessian- and Monte-Carlo-based parameter confidence limits. A rich application programming interface is available for customization within own MATLAB code. Within an extensive performance analysis, we identified and significantly improved an integrator–optimizer pair which decreases the fitting duration for a realistic benchmark model by a factor over 3000 compared to MATLAB with optimization toolbox. Availability: PottersWheel is freely available for academic usage at http://www.PottersWheel.de/. The website contains a detailed documentation and introductory videos. The program has been intensively used since 2005 on Windows, Linux and Macintosh computers and does not require special MATLAB toolboxes. Contact: maiwald@fdm.uni-freiburg.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Systems-level interactions between insulin-EGF networks amplify mitogenic signaling.

Crosstalk mechanisms have not been studied as thoroughly as individual signaling pathways. We exploit experimental and computational approaches to reveal how a concordant interplay between the insulin and epidermal growth factor (EGF) signaling networks can potentiate mitogenic signaling. In HEK293 cells, insulin is a poor activator of the Ras/ERK (extracellular signal‐regulated kinase) cascade, yet it enhances ERK activation by low EGF doses. We find that major crosstalk mechanisms that amplify ERK signaling are localized upstream of Ras and at the Ras/Raf level. Computational modeling unveils how critical network nodes, the adaptor proteins GAB1 and insulin receptor substrate (IRS), Src kinase, and phosphatase SHP2, convert insulin‐induced increase in the phosphatidylinositol‐3,4,5‐triphosphate (PIP3) concentration into enhanced Ras/ERK activity. The model predicts and experiments confirm that insulin‐induced amplification of mitogenic signaling is abolished by disrupting PIP3‐mediated positive feedback via GAB1 and IRS. We demonstrate that GAB1 behaves as a non‐linear amplifier of mitogenic responses and insulin endows EGF signaling with robustness to GAB1 suppression. Our results show the feasibility of using computational models to identify key target combinations and predict complex cellular responses to a mixture of external cues.

Testing statistical significance of multivariate time series analysis techniques for epileptic seizure prediction

Nonlinear time series analysis techniques have been proposed to detect changes in the electroencephalography dynamics prior to epileptic seizures. Their applicability in practice to predict seizure onsets is hampered by the present lack of generally accepted standards to assess their performance. We propose an analytic approach to judge the prediction performance of multivariate seizure prediction methods. Statistical tests are introduced to assess patient individual results, taking into account that prediction methods are applied to multiple time series and several seizures. Their performance is illustrated utilizing a bivariate seizure prediction method based on synchronization theory.

Data-based identifiability analysis of non-linear dynamical models

MOTIVATION Mathematical modelling of biological systems is becoming a standard approach to investigate complex dynamic, non-linear interaction mechanisms in cellular processes. However, models may comprise non-identifiable parameters which cannot be unambiguously determined. Non-identifiability manifests itself in functionally related parameters, which are difficult to detect. RESULTS We present the method of mean optimal transformations, a non-parametric bootstrap-based algorithm for identifiability testing, capable of identifying linear and non-linear relations of arbitrarily many parameters, regardless of model size or complexity. This is performed with use of optimal transformations, estimated using the alternating conditional expectation algorithm (ACE). An initial guess or prior knowledge concerning the underlying relation of the parameters is not required. Independent, and hence identifiable parameters are determined as well. The quality of data at disposal is included in our approach, i.e. the non-linear model is fitted to data and estimated parameter values are investigated with respect to functional relations. We exemplify our approach on a realistic dynamical model and demonstrate that the variability of estimated parameter values decreases from 81 to 1% after detection and fixation of structural non-identifiabilities.

Covering a Broad Dynamic Range: Information Processing at the Erythropoietin Receptor

Seeing EPO The supply of red blood cells in mammals is controlled by the cytokine erythropoietin (EPO). In physiological situations, the concentration of EPO can change by 1000-fold. Becker et al. (p. 1404, published online 20 May) used a combination of mathematical modeling and experimental analysis to discern how cells can maintain a linear response to such a broad range of EPO concentrations. Critical features included internalization of EPO-bound receptors and subsequent degradation of the EPO ligand. Replenishment of receptors at the cell surface required a large supply of EPO receptors maintained in reserve inside the cell. These mechanisms allow cells to experience large increases in EPO concentration without becoming refractory to further stimulation. Modeling and experiments help to explain responsiveness of red blood cell precursors to very large changes in a proliferative signal. Cell surface receptors convert extracellular cues into receptor activation, thereby triggering intracellular signaling networks and controlling cellular decisions. A major unresolved issue is the identification of receptor properties that critically determine processing of ligand-encoded information. We show by mathematical modeling of quantitative data and experimental validation that rapid ligand depletion and replenishment of the cell surface receptor are characteristic features of the erythropoietin (Epo) receptor (EpoR). The amount of Epo-EpoR complexes and EpoR activation integrated over time corresponds linearly to ligand input; this process is carried out over a broad range of ligand concentrations. This relation depends solely on EpoR turnover independent of ligand binding, which suggests an essential role of large intracellular receptor pools. These receptor properties enable the system to cope with basal and acute demand in the hematopoietic system.

Gene expression profiling in polycythaemia vera: overexpression of transcription factor NF-E2

The molecular aetiology of polycythaemia vera (PV) remains unknown and the differential diagnosis between PV and secondary erythrocytosis (SE) can be challenging. Gene expression profiling can identify candidates involved in the pathophysiology of PV and generate a molecular signature to aid in diagnosis. We thus performed cDNA microarray analysis on 40 PV and 12 SE patients. Two independent data sets were obtained: using a two‐step training/validation design, a set of 64 genes (class predictors) was determined, which correctly discriminated PV from SE patients. Separately 253 genes were identified to be upregulated and 391 downregulated more than 1·5‐fold in PV compared with healthy controls (P < 0·01). Of the genes overexpressed in PV, 27 contained Sp1 sites: we therefore propose that altered activity of Sp1‐like transcription factors may contribute to the molecular aetiology of PV. One Sp1 target, the transcription factor NF‐E2 [nuclear factor (erythroid‐derived 2)], is overexpressed 2‐ to 40‐fold in PV patients. In PV bone marrow, NF‐E2 is overexpressed in megakaryocytes, erythroid and granulocytic precursors. It has been shown that overexpression of NF‐E2 leads to the development of erythropoietin‐independent erythroid colonies and that ectopic NF‐E2 expression can reprogram monocytic cells towards erythroid and megakaryocytic differentiation. Transcription factor concentration may thus control lineage commitment. We therefore propose that elevated concentrations of NF‐E2 in PV patients lead to an overproduction of erythroid and, in some patients, megakaryocytic cells/platelets. In this model, the level of NF‐E2 overexpression determines both the severity of erythrocytosis and the concurrent presence or absence of thrombocytosis.

Addressing parameter identifiability by model-based experimentation.

Mathematical description of biological processes such as gene regulatory networks or signalling pathways by dynamic models utilising ordinary differential equations faces challenges if the model parameters like rate constants are estimated from incomplete and noisy experimental data. Typically, biological networks are only partially observed. Only a fraction of the modelled molecular species is measurable directly. This can result in structurally non-identifiable model parameters. Furthermore, practical non-identifiability can arise from limited amount and quality of experimental data. In the challenge of growing model complexity on one side, and experimental limitations on the other side, both types of non-identifiability arise frequently in systems biological applications often prohibiting reliable prediction of system dynamics. On theoretical grounds this article summarises how and why both types of non-identifiability arise. It exemplifies pitfalls where models do not yield reliable predictions of system dynamics because of non-identifiabilities. Subsequently, several approaches for identifiability analysis proposed in the literature are discussed. The aim is to provide an overview of applicable methods for detecting parameter identifiability issues. Once non-identifiability is detected, it can be resolved either by experimental design, measuring additional data under suitable conditions; or by model reduction, tailoring the size of the model to the information content provided by the experimental data. Both strategies enhance model predictability and will be elucidated by an example application. [Includes supplementary material].

Do False Predictions of Seizures Depend on the State of Vigilance? A Report from Two Seizure-Prediction Methods and Proposed Remedies

Summary:  Purpose: Available seizure‐prediction algorithms are accompanied by high numbers of false predictions to achieve high sensitivity. Little is known about the extent to which changes in EEG dynamics contribute to false predictions. This study addresses potential causes and the circadian distribution of false predictions as well as their relation to the sleep–wake cycle.

Computational processing and error reduction strategies for standardized quantitative data in biological networks

High‐quality quantitative data generated under standardized conditions is critical for understanding dynamic cellular processes. We report strategies for error reduction, and algorithms for automated data processing and for establishing the widely used techniques of immunoprecipitation and immunoblotting as highly precise methods for the quantification of protein levels and modifications. To determine the stoichiometry of cellular components and to ensure comparability of experiments, relative signals are converted to absolute values. A major source for errors in blotting techniques are inhomogeneities of the gel and the transfer procedure leading to correlated errors. These correlations are prevented by randomized gel loading, which significantly reduces standard deviations. Further error reduction is achieved by using housekeeping proteins as normalizers or by adding purified proteins in immunoprecipitations as calibrators in combination with criteria‐based normalization. Additionally, we developed a computational tool for automated normalization, validation and integration of data derived from multiple immunoblots. In this way, large sets of quantitative data for dynamic pathway modeling can be generated, enabling the identification of systems properties and the prediction of targets for efficient intervention.