Thomas P. Good

Recovery Planning for Endangered Species Act-listed Pacific Salmon: Using Science to Inform Goals and Strategies

Abstract Endangered and threatened populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the United States span major freshwater and marine ecosystems from southern California to northern Washington, Their wide-ranging habits and anadromous life history exposes them to a variety of risk factors and influences, including hydropower operations, ocean and freshwater harvest, habitat degradation, releases of hatchery-reared salmon, variable ocean productivity, toxic contaminants, density-dependent effects, and a suite of native and non-native predators and competitors. We review the range of analyses that form the scientific backbone of recovery plans being developed for Pacific salmon listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This process involves: identifying the appropriate conservation units (demographically independent Evolutionarily Significant Units [ESUs] and their populations), developing viability criteria for Pacific salmon populations and overall ESUs, and using coarse-resolution habitat analys...

INCORPORATING CATASTROPHIC RISK ASSESSMENTS INTO SETTING CONSERVATION GOALS FOR THREATENED PACIFIC SALMON

Catastrophic die-offs can have important consequences for vertebrate population growth and biodiversity, but catastrophic risks are not commonly incorporated into endangered-species recovery planning. Natural (e.g., landslides, floods) and anthropogenic (e.g., toxic leaks and spills) catastrophes pose a challenge for evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) of Pacific salmon listed under the Endangered Species Act and teetering at precariously low population levels. To spread risks among Puget Sound chinook salmon populations, recovery strategies for ESU-wide viability recommend at least two viable populations of historical life-history types in each of five geographic regions. We explored the likelihood of Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU persistence by examining spatial patterns of catastrophic risk and testing ESU viability recommendations for 22 populations of the threatened Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU. We combined geospatial information about catastrophic risks and chinook salmon distribution in Puget Sound watersheds to categorize relative catastrophic risks for each population. We then analyzed similarities in risk scores among regions and compared risk distributions among strategies: (1) population groups selected using the ESU viability recommendations of having populations spread out geographically and including historical life-history diversity, and (2) population groups selected at random. Risks from individual catastrophes varied among populations, but overall risk from catastrophes was similar within geographic regions. Recovery strategies that called for two viable populations in each of five geographic regions had lower risk than random strategies; strategies that included life-history diversity had even lower risks. Geographically distributed populations have varying catastrophic-risks profiles, thus identifying and reinforcing the spatial and life-history diversity critical for populations to respond to environmental change or needed to rescue severely depleted or extirpated populations. Recovery planning can promote viability of Pacific salmon ESUs across the landscape by incorporating catastrophic risk assessments.

Persistent organic pollutants in forage fish prey of rhinoceros auklets breeding in Puget Sound and the northern California Current

Organochlorine contaminants in upper trophic-level consumers inhabiting Puget Sound are consistently higher than in those species inhabiting other west coast locations. We analyzed persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the six most common fish prey of rhinoceros auklets breeding on Protection Island (Puget Sound), Tatoosh Island (WA coast), and Destruction Island (WA coast). Wet-weight concentrations of POPs ranged widely (PCBs: 1.6-25.0 ng/g; DDTs: 0.2-56.0 ng/g; PBDEs:<LOQ-49.0 ng/g), but overall patterns showed fish from Puget Sound were 2-4 times more contaminated and had similar contaminant profiles compared to fish from the outer coast. Unexpectedly elevated PCB and PBDE concentrations in Chinook salmon from the outer coast likely reflected Columbia River. Calculating contaminant loads for auklet nestlings magnified differences observed between inland and outer coast fish prey. Monitoring of breeding auklets, their prey and other resident marine birds is needed to assess biomagnification impacts in the Puget Sound marine ecosystem.

Impact of the Potholes Reservoir Caspian Tern Breeding Colony on Out-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids in the Mid-Columbia River

Abstract We examined the foraging behavior and diet of Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia breeding at Potholes Reservoir, Washington, in 2003, 2005, and 2006, and we developed a bioenergetics model to estimate impacts on juvenile salmonids Oncorhynchus spp. from Columbia River stocks. Potholes Reservoir Caspian terns mostly foraged on local fish (68–97% of tern bill loads) rather than traveling to the Columbia River. Our model suggested that only 8,913–94,139 juvenile salmonids were consumed, representing 0.02–0.38% of the salmonids available to Caspian terns. Local foraging is probably explained by higher net profitability of Potholes Reservoir fish prey. Columbia River steelhead O. mykiss were the only juvenile salmonids that were energetically comparable with local Potholes Reservoir fish, mostly due to their high energy density and relatively large size. Passive integrated transponder tag analyses showed that Potholes Reservoir Caspian terns preferred steelhead (predation rates = 0.42–1.06%) to all othe...

Misuse of Checklist Assessments in Endangered Species Recovery Efforts

ABSTRACT. Natural resource agencies worldwide must develop species recovery plans that specify threats, propose targets required for recovery, and evaluate the extent to which habitat alteration and restoration may influence species decline and recovery. To evaluate the impacts of proposed habitat alterations on species of conservation concern, standardized protocols may be adopted even when supporting data are scarce. For example, a habitat matrix was developed by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to guide consultations under the Endangered Species Act for actions that may affect the functioning of the freshwater habitat used by several federally listed salmonid species. The habitat matrix has also been advocated as a tool for recovery planning by agencies apart from the NMFS, who could use it to define the habitat conditions assumed to be necessary for salmonid population viability and hence recovery. This use of the habitat matrix in a recovery context has not been evaluated, and, despite its widespread use as a regulatory tool, the empirical relationships between many of the habitat matrix variables and salmonid populations remain unexplored. By amassing data on habitat assessments and trends in fish abundance, we empirically evaluate the relationship between habitat matrix scores and salmonid population metrics. We found that abundance trends for populations of three species of threatened and endangered salmonids (chinook, coho, and steelhead) were unrelated to these habitat matrix assessments. This study reveals the danger of assuming quantitative relationships between habitat and organism and cautions against co-opting protocols from the regulatory realm for recovery planning for endangered species.

A Model Approach for Estimating Colony Size, Trends, and Habitat Associations of Burrow-Nesting Seabirds

Abstract. We present a prototype monitoring strategy for estimating the density and number of occupied burrows of burrow-nesting seabirds. We use data and management questions from Washington State as an example that can be applied to burrow-nesting seabirds at single- or multi-island scales. We also demonstrate how habitat assessments can be conducted concurrently. Specifically, we compared the density and occupancy of burrows of the Rhinoceros Auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata) at nesting colonies in the California Current and the Salish Sea and in the 1970s, 1980s, and today. We estimated 36 152, 1546, and 6494 occupied burrows on Protection and Smith islands (Salish Sea), and Destruction Island (California Current), respectively. Our estimates for the Salish Sea are 52% greater than those from the 1970s and 1980s, while that for the California Current is 60% less than that of 1975. This suggests that the Salish Sea population has increased, despite greater human effects on that ecosystem. However, some of the estimated changes between the periods could be the result of methodological and analytical differences. To address these issues we recommend an unbiased and representative sampling approach (stratified random) and an approach for optimally allocating the samples among strata within and among islands, depending on the scale of the question being addressed. Optimally allocating the sample would save a great deal of field effort; using this approach, we achieve relatively high power (>0.80) to detect moderate changes (20%) sampling hundreds of fewer plots than in a sample not optimally allocated.

Estimating Effects of Tidal Power Projects and Climate Change on Threatened and Endangered Marine Species and Their Food Web

Marine hydrokinetic power projects will operate as marine environments change in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We considered how tidal power development and stressors resulting from climate change may affect Puget Sound species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) and their food web. We used risk tables to assess the singular and combined effects of tidal power development and climate change. Tidal power development and climate change posed risks to ESA-listed species, and risk increased with incorporation of the effects of these stressors on predators and prey of ESA-listed species. In contrast, results of a model of strikes on ESA-listed species from turbine blades suggested that few ESA-listed species are likely to be killed by a commercial-scale tidal turbine array. We applied scenarios to a food web model of Puget Sound to explore the effects of tidal power and climate change on ESA-listed species using more quantitative analytical techniques. To simulate development of tidal power, we applied results of the blade strike model. To simulate environmental changes over the next 50 years, we applied scenarios of change in primary production, plankton community structure, dissolved oxygen, ocean acidification, and freshwater flooding events. No effects of tidal power development on ESA-listed species were detected from the food web model output, but the effects of climate change on them and other members of the food web were large. Our analyses exemplify how natural resource managers might assess environmental effects of marine technologies in ways that explicitly incorporate climate change and consider multiple ESA-listed species in the context of their ecological community. Estimación de los Efectos de Proyectos de Energía de las Mareas y el Cambio Climático sobre Especies Marinas Amenazadas y en Peligro y su Red Alimentaria.