Thomas R. Marshall

The Supreme Court as an Opinion Leader Court Decisions and the Mass Public

Evidence for the Supreme Courts legitimacy-conferring role is measured by examining shifts in pre- and postdecision public opinions polls. A study of 18 poll shifts since the 1930s indicates that the average pre- to postdecision poll shift is virtually zero. Under limited circumstances, however, larger poll shifts toward the Courts position do occur, especially when the Court makes liberal, activist decisions and when a time-lag variable is allowed for.

PUBLIC OPINION, REPRESENTATION, AND THE MODERN SUPREME COURT

Evidence suggests that the modern Supreme Court reflects nationwide public opinion in nearly three-fifths of its decisions. The post-New Deal Court has been especially majoritarian in federal-level disputes and in “crisis times” cases. Overall, the modern Court appears to be as majoritarian as other American policymakers.

Caucuses and Primaries Measuring Reform in the Presidential Nomination Process

In 1968 battles over delegate selection rules and procedures for the national party conven tions erupted anew. During the following decade, reformers advanced multiple standards for the delegate selection and presidential nomination process. While many of these goals have been incorporated into party rules and into state or federal law, little research yet exists by which to evaluate how fully presidential primaries versus caucus convention systems achieve these various standards. A review of the 1976 presidential delegate selection process suggests that presidential primaries and caucus convention systems meet most reform goals equally well, although some differences are found between these two modes of delegate selection.

The 1964 Surgeon General's Report and Americans' Beliefs about Smoking

Half a century ago, on January 11, 1964, the U.S. Surgeon General’s office released a landmark report on the health consequences of smoking. That report received massive media attention and triggered a steadily growing number of federal, state, and local restrictions on the advertising, sale, and use of cigarettes. Little is known about the report’s impact on American public opinion because all the timely public opinion polls that measured the report’s impact were privately commissioned by the tobacco industry and were not made publicly available. A review of these polls shows that the 1964 Surgeon General’s report had a large and immediate effect on Americans’ beliefs that cigarettes were a cause of lung cancer and of heart disease. However, the report had less impact on public preferences for government action or on smoking rates.