Thomas Turrentine

TESTING ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEMAND IN 'HYBRID HOUSEHOLDS' USING A REFLEXIVE SURVEY

The debate over electric vehicles (EVs) pivots largely on issues of market demand: will consumers purchase a vehicle that provides substantially less driving range, yet can be refueled at home, than an otherwise comparable gasoline vehicle? Also, what role do other unique attributes of EVs play in the purchase decision? Most previous studies find that limited driving range is a serious market barrier; many of those same studies ignore or under-value other novel attributes. To prove these future consumer decision processes deeply and robustly, we first devised and conducted detailed, interactive and experiment-oriented interviews. Then, incorporating what we learned, we designed an innovative mail survey and administered it to 454 multi-car households in California. The four-stage mail survey included a video of EV use and recharging and other informational material, completion of a 3-day trip diary and map of activity locations, and vehicle choice experiments. In addition to propulsion systems, respondents made choices of body styles, driving ranges, and other features. We formalized and tested what we call the hybrid household hypothesis: households who choose EVs will be purposefully diversifying their vehicle holdings to achieve the unique advantages of different propulsion systems. The hypothesis is supported, given the assumptions in our experimental design. In fact, a significantly larger number of EVs are chosen than the minimum number that would support our hypothesis. We find that purchases of battery-powered EVs by hybrid households would account for between 7 and 18% of annual light duty vehicle sales in California. EVs sold to fleets and other households would be in addition to those identified by this study.

ADAPTING INTERACTIVE STATED RESPONSE TECHNIQUES TO A SELF-COMPLETION SURVEY.

We report here on how we adapted Interactive Stated Response Methods to use in a self-completion survey of 454 California households to measure the market for electric vehicles in California. Electric vehicles are a novel product and have many features unfamiliar to consumers, in particular their home recharging capability and limited range. Reflexive techniques were designed to draw households into a deeper exploration of the lifestyle implications of electric vehicles than can be done in more typical self-completion surveys, and to stimulate key decision processes previously observed in detailed gaming interviews with 51 households. Reflexive self-completion techniques provide a middle course between typical large sample quantitative surveys and small sample, detailed gaming interviews. One of the benefits of the more intensive techniques was that participants reported finding the surveys interesting and return rates were high for a self-completion approach – over sixty percent. We review previous transportation and sociological methods which inspired our design, describe the design goals and features of our research, and summarize research results pertinent to testing the validity of our approach.

Consumer Perceptions and Use of Driving Distance of Electric Vehicles: Changes over Time Through Lifestyle Learning Process

Popular media and even researchers commonly assume that ownership of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) provides consumers less performance and mobility than consumers expect. A common claim is that consumers have constant worry about the range of their BEVs, often termed “range anxiety.” BMW converted 450 Mini Coopers to all-electric drive (named the Mini E) and leased them to fleets and 235 private households in the Los Angeles, California, and New York–New Jersey regions from spring 2009 to spring 2010. Through the course of the 1-year lease, University of California, Davis (UCD), researchers conducted multiple online surveys and in-person interviews and administered weeklong driving diaries. This paper explores the reactions of Mini E drivers to the driving distance of the Mini E through the framework of a lifestyle learning process. Over time, Mini E drivers learned how the 104-mi range of the Mini E fit into their lifestyles. Drivers adapted and explored with their Mini E through activities such as altering driving behavior (such as speed and trip routes), optimizing charging opportunities, planning trips, and educating themselves on distances to destinations with the help of online and mobile mapping tools. In the course of the UCD Mini E consumer study, researchers found evidence suggesting that the driving range was not a major concern for these early adopters. Even with no public charging available to their vehicle, 100% of survey respondents stated that BEVs were suitable for daily use. The results of this study will be of interest to policy makers and practitioners interested in expanding the BEV market.

Driving Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Reports from U.S. Drivers of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Converted to Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

This article examines early users’ experiences with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). At the time that this study was conducted, in the winter and spring of 2007, PHEVs were not yet commercialized. Still, Americans were becoming aware of PHEVs and 25 to 30 vehicles converted from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) to PHEVs were on the road. In interviews with 23 drivers of these vehicles, the present study explored their motivations for converting an HEV to PHEV operation, how they used and recharged their vehicles, and their visions for future PHEV designs. What drivers think about PHEVs, including the benefits and drawbacks that they perceive, was also investigated. Although todays PHEV drivers may not represent either present mainstream American car buyers or future buyers of PHEVs, their behavior and viewpoints offer hypotheses about what ideas might motivate other consumers and clues about how PHEVs will be used by other consumers and may shape both the PHEV technologies offered in the future and the reasons why future consumers will value PHEVs. For example, the group of PHEV pioneers evaluated in the present study is primarily interested in a greater all-electric driving range and performance; they are secondarily interested in high gasoline fuel economy, which they typically report without accounting for electricity from the grid. Which of these two ideas–-all-electric driving and high miles per gallon–-will motivate more consumers? The desirability of feedback to drivers on their on-road energy use and their total gasoline plus electric energy use is also highlighted.

Interplay between ethanol and electric vehicles as low carbon mobility options for passengers in the municipality of São Paulo

ABSTRACT The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazils urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO2 emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol.