Kenneth S Kurani

Interpersonal Influence within Car Buyers' Social Networks: Applying Five Perspectives to Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Drivers

Although interpersonal influence is thought to play in important role in proenvironmental consumption behavior, mechanisms of influence are not well understood. Through literature review, we identify five theoretical perspectives on interpersonal influence: contagion, conformity, dissemination, translation, and reflexivity. We apply these perspectives to car buyer perceptions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), a technology with attributes that can be perceived as functional, symbolic, private, and societal. The context is a PHEV demonstration project in which 275 interpersonal interactions were elicited from interviews with 40 individuals in 11 different social networks in northern California. Results demonstrate how perspectives shape research findings. Contagion, conformity, and dissemination provide useful concepts regarding perceptions of functional, symbolic and societal PHEV attributes, respectively. However, translation and reflexivity provide language and theoretical depth to describe observed perceptions and motives, while also addressing dynamics in these perceptions and in consumer values. Utilizing these differing perspectives facilitated observation that participants are more amenable to developing new, prosocietal interpretations of PHEVs if they: (i) easily form a basic functional understanding of PHEV technology, (ii) are in a transitional state in their lifestyle practices, and (iii) find supportive prosocietal values within their social network. Results demonstrate the importance of integrating complementary research perspectives to better understand consumer valuation of technologies with environmental benefits.

TESTING ELECTRIC VEHICLE DEMAND IN 'HYBRID HOUSEHOLDS' USING A REFLEXIVE SURVEY

The debate over electric vehicles (EVs) pivots largely on issues of market demand: will consumers purchase a vehicle that provides substantially less driving range, yet can be refueled at home, than an otherwise comparable gasoline vehicle? Also, what role do other unique attributes of EVs play in the purchase decision? Most previous studies find that limited driving range is a serious market barrier; many of those same studies ignore or under-value other novel attributes. To prove these future consumer decision processes deeply and robustly, we first devised and conducted detailed, interactive and experiment-oriented interviews. Then, incorporating what we learned, we designed an innovative mail survey and administered it to 454 multi-car households in California. The four-stage mail survey included a video of EV use and recharging and other informational material, completion of a 3-day trip diary and map of activity locations, and vehicle choice experiments. In addition to propulsion systems, respondents made choices of body styles, driving ranges, and other features. We formalized and tested what we call the hybrid household hypothesis: households who choose EVs will be purposefully diversifying their vehicle holdings to achieve the unique advantages of different propulsion systems. The hypothesis is supported, given the assumptions in our experimental design. In fact, a significantly larger number of EVs are chosen than the minimum number that would support our hypothesis. We find that purchases of battery-powered EVs by hybrid households would account for between 7 and 18% of annual light duty vehicle sales in California. EVs sold to fleets and other households would be in addition to those identified by this study.

Households’ Stories of Their Encounters With a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle

One way to progress toward greenhouse gas reductions is for people to drive plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Households in this study participated in a 4- to 6-week PHEV driving trial. A narrative of each household’s encounter with the PHEV was constructed by the researchers from multiple in-home interviews, questionnaires completed by each household at the start and end of their 4- to 6-week PHEV demonstration period, and quantitative measures of driving and recharging behavior from the data systems onboard the vehicles. Thematic analysis was used to create themes from the narratives. Bridging from the idiosyncratic experience of each household toward a societal narrative, the authors describe the following themes: confusion, recharging habits and etiquette, changing driving behavior, payback analysis, saving money, expectations, and the future. No theme explicitly identified global warming, indicating a gap between lay and expert understandings of both the technology and motivations. The themes lead to suggestions for education, information, marketing, and direct experience.

A Scalable Stochastic Model for the Electricity Demand of Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

In this paper we propose a stochastic model, based on queueing theory, for electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging demand. Compared to previous studies, our model can provide 1) more accurate forecasts of the load using real-time sub-metering data, along with the level of uncertainty that accompanies these forecasts; 2) a mathematical description of load, along with the level of demand flexibility that accompanies this load, at the wholesale level. This can be useful when designing demand response and dynamic pricing schemes. Our numerical experiments tune the proposed statistics on real PHEV charging data and demonstrate that the forecasting method we propose is more accurate than standard load prediction techniques.

Early U.S. Market for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Anticipating Consumer Recharge Potential and Design Priorities

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are proposed as both a near-term technology to achieve energy and environmental goals and as a transitional step toward viable all-electric vehicles. To replace assumptions with observations of potential PHEV drivers’ behavior in market and impact analyses, an Internet-based survey of 2,373 new-car–buying households in the United States was conducted. The instrument required households to answer questions, complete a driving and parking diary, and then complete several PHEV design exercises. Three conclusions could be drawn from the resulting data. First, at least half of the target population is already equipped for at-home vehicle recharging but has little opportunity for recharging at the workplace or other locations. Second, the study found that the respondents had widely varied interests in four possible PHEV attributes: fuel economy (in both charge-depleting and charge-sustaining operations), blended versus all-electric operation, the distance over which the vehicle is in the charge-depleting mode, and the recharging speed. Nevertheless, the appeal of increased fuel economy appears to be the highest and that of faster recharging appears to be the lowest. Furthermore, there is little interest in all-electric operation. Third, given the previous two points, it was estimated that about a third of the target population has both the infrastructure to recharge a PHEV and interest in a vehicle with plug-in capabilities. Policy, technology, and energy providers may use this information to understand whether their plans, designs, and goals align with these present understandings or whether it would be collectively beneficial to foster new understandings of PHEVs among U.S. car buyers.

REFUELING AND THE VEHICLE PURCHASE DECISION: THE DIESEL CAR CASE

A survey of diesel car and light truck owners was conducted in California to determine the importance of limited fuel availability in a households vehicle purchase decision. Behavioral, attitudinal, and perceptual differences toward limited fuel availability are reported. In particular, the importance of fuel availability is examined as a function of the number of diesel fuel stations. Results are generalized to other non-gasoline vehicles.

An assessment of electric vehicles: technology, infrastructure requirements, greenhouse-gas emissions, petroleum use, material use, lifetime cost, consumer acceptance and policy initiatives.

Concerns about climate change, urban air pollution and dependence on unstable and expensive supplies of foreign oil have led policy-makers and researchers to investigate alternatives to conventional petroleum-fuelled internal-combustion-engine vehicles in transportation. Because vehicles that get some or all of their power from an electric drivetrain can have low or even zero emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and urban air pollutants, and can consume little or no petroleum, there is considerable interest in developing and evaluating advanced electric vehicles (EVs), including pure battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles. To help researchers and policy-makers assess the potential of EVs to mitigate climate change and reduce petroleum use, this paper discusses the technology of EVs, the infrastructure needed for their development, impacts on emissions of GHGs, petroleum use, materials use, lifetime costs, consumer acceptance and policy considerations.

ADAPTING INTERACTIVE STATED RESPONSE TECHNIQUES TO A SELF-COMPLETION SURVEY.

We report here on how we adapted Interactive Stated Response Methods to use in a self-completion survey of 454 California households to measure the market for electric vehicles in California. Electric vehicles are a novel product and have many features unfamiliar to consumers, in particular their home recharging capability and limited range. Reflexive techniques were designed to draw households into a deeper exploration of the lifestyle implications of electric vehicles than can be done in more typical self-completion surveys, and to stimulate key decision processes previously observed in detailed gaming interviews with 51 households. Reflexive self-completion techniques provide a middle course between typical large sample quantitative surveys and small sample, detailed gaming interviews. One of the benefits of the more intensive techniques was that participants reported finding the surveys interesting and return rates were high for a self-completion approach – over sixty percent. We review previous transportation and sociological methods which inspired our design, describe the design goals and features of our research, and summarize research results pertinent to testing the validity of our approach.

Driving Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Reports from U.S. Drivers of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Converted to Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

This article examines early users’ experiences with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). At the time that this study was conducted, in the winter and spring of 2007, PHEVs were not yet commercialized. Still, Americans were becoming aware of PHEVs and 25 to 30 vehicles converted from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) to PHEVs were on the road. In interviews with 23 drivers of these vehicles, the present study explored their motivations for converting an HEV to PHEV operation, how they used and recharged their vehicles, and their visions for future PHEV designs. What drivers think about PHEVs, including the benefits and drawbacks that they perceive, was also investigated. Although todays PHEV drivers may not represent either present mainstream American car buyers or future buyers of PHEVs, their behavior and viewpoints offer hypotheses about what ideas might motivate other consumers and clues about how PHEVs will be used by other consumers and may shape both the PHEV technologies offered in the future and the reasons why future consumers will value PHEVs. For example, the group of PHEV pioneers evaluated in the present study is primarily interested in a greater all-electric driving range and performance; they are secondarily interested in high gasoline fuel economy, which they typically report without accounting for electricity from the grid. Which of these two ideas–-all-electric driving and high miles per gallon–-will motivate more consumers? The desirability of feedback to drivers on their on-road energy use and their total gasoline plus electric energy use is also highlighted.

Field Test of Energy Information Feedback: Driver Responses and Behavioral Theory

The Energy Information Administration estimates that, in 2007, U.S. domestic passenger vehicles burned 113 billion gallons of fuel and thus generated more than 16% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Past field experiments and simulations suggest that energy information feedback to drivers could have spared 10% to 25% of those gallons. However, the theoretical underpinnings of past experiments have primarily been ad hoc, with application of their results limited to specific conditions of the experiment and feedback design. More rigorous behavioral theory would allow researchers to account for more variation in driver response to feedback, create testable hypotheses about the effectiveness of current systems, and provide a basis for designing more-effective systems. This paper presents drivers’ responses to energy feedback in a field test involving 98 participants from 43 households in California and compares the results with the concepts that underlie the theory of planned behavior and the extended model of goal-directed behavior. About 40% of participants reported more economical driving behaviors after viewing the feedback; estimation of actual changes in fuel use is left for future research. After viewing real-time energy information, numerous drivers reported setting goals, having emotional reactions, and creating new driving behaviors. Distraction from the primary driving task was a persistent problem for some drivers. Web-accessible information was not as motivating to participants. Finally, the study finds evidence of correspondence between theoretical behavioral factors and drivers’ responses.