Thomas Weitzenblum

Optimal unemployment insurance: transitional dynamics vs. steady state

In this study, we ask whether the presence of precautionary savings substantially reduces the optimal replacement rate in an European economy type characterized by high unemployment benefits and moral hazard. We build a simple job search model calibrated on French data and, in line with previous studies, find that the optimality criterion based on comparisons of steady states leads to a low optimal ratio. Yet, this result ignores potential transitional costs due to the necessity for agents to increase their savings and reduce their consumption whenever the ratio is cut. We therefore build a dynamic model taking full account of the transition, and show that a reduction in benefits reduces welfare. Even though the long-run optimal replacement rate is lower than the current one, transitional costs dominate long-run gains. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Why Do Governments End Up with Debt? Short‐Run Effects Matter

This paper reconsiders the impact of public debt in an economy with heterogeneous households and incomplete markets to emphasize the short-run effects of an increase in public debt. As compared to models that rest on steady-state analysis, we show that the welfare gains of a public debt increase are substantially higher when transitional dynamics are accounted for. The additional debt issue allows for a temporary reduction in the income tax rate, which stimulates labor supply and generates an overshooting of the interest rate. The short-run gains create a temptation to deviate toward higher levels of debt. Debt increases continue to generate welfare gains even when debt is considerably higher than its long-run optimal level.