Thuan-Quoc Thach

Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong

Summary Background Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong. Methods We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients’age and the time from onset to admission. Findings After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% Cl 5.2–7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8–16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2–52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric γ distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0–9.6) and 55.0% (45.3–64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic. Interpretation Patients’age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine. Published online May 7, 2003 http://image.thelancet.com/extras/03art4453web.pdf

Cardiorespiratory and all-cause mortality after restrictions on sulphur content of fuel in Hong Kong: an intervention study

BACKGROUND In July, 1990, a restriction was introduced over one weekend that required all power plants and road vehicles in Hong Kong to use fuel oil with a sulphur content of not more than 0.5% by weight. This intervention led to an immediate fall in ambient sulphur dioxide (SO2). We assessed the effect of this intervention on mortality over the next 5 years. METHODS Changes in trends in deaths were estimated by a Poisson regression model of deaths each month between 1985 and 1995. Changes in seasonal deaths immediately after the intervention were measured by the increase in deaths from warm to cool season. We also estimated the annual proportional change in number of deaths before and after the intervention. We used age-specific death rates to estimate person-years of life gained. FINDINGS In the first 12 months after introduction of the restriction, a substantial reduction in seasonal deaths was noted, followed by a peak in the cool-season death rate between 13 and 24 months, returning to the expected pattern during years 3-5. Compared with predictions, the intervention led to a significant decline in the average annual trend in deaths from all causes (2.1%; p=0.001), respiratory (3.9%; p=0.0014) and cardiovascular (2.0%; p=0.0214) diseases, but not from other causes. The average gain in life expectancy per year of exposure to the lower pollutant concentration was 20 days (females) to 41 days (males). INTERPRETATION Pollution resulting from sulphur-rich fuels has an effect on death rates, especially respiratory and cardiovascular deaths. The outcome of the Hong Kong intervention provides direct evidence that control of this pollution has immediate and long-term health benefits.

The effects of air pollution on mortality in socially deprived urban areas in Hong Kong, China

Background Poverty is a major determinant of population health, but little is known about its role in modifying air pollution effects. Objectives We set out to examine whether people residing in socially deprived communities are at higher mortality risk from ambient air pollution. Methods This study included 209 tertiary planning units (TPUs), the smallest units for town planning in the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong, China. The socioeconomic status of each TPU was measured by a social deprivation index (SDI) derived from the proportions of the population with a) unemployment, b) monthly household income < US

Short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities: The China air pollution and health effects study (CAPES)

250, c) no schooling at all, d) one-person household, e) never-married status, and f ) subtenancy, from the 2001 Population Census. TPUs were classified into three levels of SDI: low, middle, and high. We performed time-series analysis with Poisson regression to examine the association between changes in daily concentrations of ambient air pollution and daily number of deaths in each SDI group for the period from January 1996 to December 2002. We evaluated the differences in pollution effects between different SDI groups using a case-only approach with logistic regression. Results We found significant associations of nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm, and ozone with all nonaccidental and cardiovascular mortality in areas of middle or high SDI (p < 0.05). Health outcomes, measured as all nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, in people residing in high SDI areas were more strongly associated with SO2 and NO2 compared with those in middle or low SDI areas. Conclusions Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation increases mortality risks associated with air pollution.

Both low and high temperature may increase the risk of stroke mortality

Sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) is a major air pollutant and has significant impacts upon human health. Few multi-city studies in Asia have examined the acute health effects of SO(2). As part of the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES), this study aimed at investigating the short-term association between SO(2) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We applied two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models to obtain city-specific and national average estimates for SO(2). In each city, we used Poisson regression models incorporating natural spline smoothing functions to adjust for long-term and seasonal trend of mortality, as well as other time-varying covariates. We examined the associations by age, gender and education status. As a result, the combined analysis showed that an increase of 10 μg/m(3) of two-day moving averaged SO(2) was associated with 0.75% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.47 to 1.02], 0.83% (0.95% PI, 0.47 to 1.19) and 1.25% (95% PI, 0.78 to 1.73) increase of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. The effects of SO(2) appeared more evident among the elderly. These associations were generally independent of particles with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM(10)) but did not persist after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)). In conclusions, this largest epidemiologic study of air pollution in China to date suggests that short-term exposure to SO(2) is associated with increased mortality risk; however, these associations may be attributable to SO(2) serving as a surrogate of other substances. Further studies are needed to tackle the independent health effect of SO(2).

Socioeconomic disparities in air pollution-associated mortality

Objective: To examine temperature in relation to stroke mortality in a multicity time series study in China. Methods: We obtained data on daily temperature and mortality from 8 large cities in China. We used quasi-Poisson generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the accumulative effects of temperature on stroke mortality across multiple days, adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of the week, air pollution, and relative humidity. We applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to pool city-specific effect estimates. Results: Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality. The potential effect of cold temperature might last more than 2 weeks. The pooled relative risks of extreme cold (first percentile of temperature) and cold (10th percentile of temperature) temperatures over lags 0–14 days were 1.39 (95% posterior intervals [PI] 1.18–1.64) and 1.11 (95% PI 1.06–1.17), compared with the 25th percentile of temperature. In contrast, the effect of hot temperature was more immediate. The relative risks of stroke mortality over lags 0–3 days were 1.06 (95% PI 1.02–1.10) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) and 1.14 (95% PI 1.05–1.24) for hot temperature (90th percentile of temperature), compared with the 75th percentile of temperature. Conclusions: This study showed that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in China. Our findings may have important implications for stroke prevention in China.

Satellite-Based Estimates of Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particles and Association with Mortality in Elderly Hong Kong Residents

This study aimed to determine whether individuals with lower socioeconomic status (SES) were more susceptible to the acute effects of ambient air pollution than those with higher SES. We included 24,357 Hong Kong Chinese aged 30 or above who died of natural causes in 1998. Information on individual socioeconomic characteristics was obtained by interviewing proxy informants with a standardized questionnaire in all four death registries. Individual SES was indicated by three measures: type of housing, occupational group and education attainment. Poisson regression was performed to assess the short-term effects of ambient air pollution measured by PM(10), NO(2), SO(2) and O(3) on mortality for each SES group. The differences in the effects between SES groups were estimated by the interaction between air pollution and SES. We found that PM(10) and NO(2) were associated with greater risk of mortality on people living in public rental housing than in private housing. The effects of all four pollutants were significantly greater in blue-collar workers than the never-employed and white-collar groups (p<0.05). However, we found no compelling evidence of effect modification by education attainment. Our results provide new evidence on the role of individuals SES as effect modifiers of the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. The reduction of risks associated with air pollution for socially disadvantaged populations should be a high priority in public health and environmental policies.

Modification by Influenza on Health Effects of Air Pollution in Hong Kong

Background A limited number of studies on long-term effects of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) on health suggest it can be an important cause of morbidity and mortality. In Asia where air quality is poor and deteriorating, local data on long-term effects of PM2.5 to support policy on air quality management are scarce. Objectives We assessed long-term effects of PM2.5 on the mortality in a single Asian city. Methods For 10–13 years, we followed up a cohort of 66,820 participants ≥ 65 years of age who were enrolled and interviewed in all 18 Elderly Health Centres of the Department of Health, Hong Kong, in 1998–2001. Their residential addresses were geocoded into x- and y-coordinates, and their proxy exposures to PM2.5 at their addresses in 1 × 1 km grids were estimated from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite data. We used Cox regression models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality associated with PM2.5. Results Mortality HRs per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 were 1.14 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.22) for all natural causes, 1.22 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.39) for cardiovascular causes, 1.42 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.73) for ischemic heart disease, 1.24 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.53) for cerebrovascular disease, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.22) for respiratory causes. Conclusions Our methods in using NASA satellite data provide a readily accessible and affordable approach to estimation of a sufficient range of individual PM2.5 exposures in a single city. This approach can expand the capacity to conduct environmental accountability studies in areas with few measurements of fine particles. Citation Wong CM, Lai HK, Tsang H, Thach TQ, Thomas GN, Lam KB, Chan KP, Yang L, Lau AK, Ayres JG, Lee SY, Chan WM, Hedley AJ, Lam TH. 2015. Satellite-based estimates of long-term exposure to fine particles and association with mortality in elderly Hong Kong residents. Environ Health Perspect 123:1167–1172; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408264

Cancer Mortality Risks from Long-term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particle

Background Both influenza viruses and air pollutants have been well documented as major hazards to human health, but few epidemiologic studies have assessed effect modification of influenza on health effects of ambient air pollutants. Objectives We aimed to assess modifying effects of influenza on health effects of ambient air pollutants. Methods We applied Poisson regression to daily numbers of hospitalizations and mortality to develop core models after adjustment for potential time-varying confounding variables. We assessed modification of influenza by adding variables for concentrations of single ambient air pollutants and proportions of influenza-positive specimens (influenza intensity) and their cross-product terms. Results We found significant effect modification of influenza (p < 0.05) for effects of ozone. When influenza intensity is assumed to increase from 0% to 10%, the excess risks per 10-μg/m3 increase in concentration of O3 increased 0.24% and 0.40% for hospitalization of respiratory disease in the all-ages group and ≥ 65 year age group, respectively; 0.46% for hospitalization of acute respiratory disease in the all-ages group; and 0.40% for hospitalization of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the ≥ 65 group. The estimated increases in the excess risks for mortality of respiratory disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the all-ages group were 0.59% and 1.05%, respectively. We found no significant modification of influenza on effects of other pollutants in most disease outcomes under study. Conclusions Influenza activity could be an effect modifier for the health effects of air pollutants particularly for O3 and should be considered in the studies for short-term effects of air pollutants on health.

Daily visibility and mortality: Assessment of health benefits from improved visibility in Hong Kong

Background: Few studies have assessed long-term effects of particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) on mortality for causes of cancer other than the lung; we assessed the effects on multiple causes. In Hong Kong, most people live and work in urban or suburban areas with high-rise buildings. This facilitates the estimation of PM2.5 exposure of individuals, taking into account the height of residence above ground level for assessment of the long-term health effects with sufficient statistical power. Methods: We recruited 66,820 persons who were ≥65 in 1998 to 2001 and followed up for mortality outcomes until 2011. Annual concentrations of PM at their residential addresses were estimated using PM2.5 concentrations measured at fixed-site monitors, horizontal–vertical locations, and satellite data. We used Cox regression model to assess the HR of mortality for cancer per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5. Results: PM2.5 was associated with increased risk of mortality for all causes of cancer [HR, 1.22 (95% CI, 1.11–1.34)] and for specific cause of cancer in upper digestive tract [1.42 (1.06–1.89)], digestive accessory organs [1.35 (1.06–1.71)] in all subjects; breast [1.80 (1.26–2.55)] in females; and lung [1.36 (1.05–1.77)] in males. Conclusions: Long-term exposures to PM2.5 are associated with elevated risks of cancer in various organs. Impact: This study is particularly timely in China, where compelling evidence is needed to support the pollution control policy to ameliorate the health damages associated with economic growth. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(5); 839–45. ©2016 AACR.