Tiago V. de V. Cavalcanti

Growth, Development and Natural Resources: New Evidence Using a Heterogeneous Panel Analysis

This paper explores whether natural resource abundance is a curse or a blessing. To do so, we firstly develop a theory consistent econometric model, in which we show that there is a long run relationship between real income, the investment rate, and the real value of oil production. Secondly, we investigate the long-run (level) impacts of natural resource abundance on domestic output as well as the short-run (growth) effects. Thirdly, we explicitly recognize that there is a substantial cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity in our sample, which covers 53 oil exporting and importing countries with very different historical and institutional backgrounds, and adopt the non-stationary panel methodologies developed by Pesaran (2006) and Pedroni (2000) for estimation. Our results, using the real value of oil production, rent or reserves as a proxy for resource endowment, reveal that oil abundance has a positive effect on both income levels and economic growth. While we accept that oil rich countries could benefit more from their natural wealth by adopting growth and welfare enhancing policies and institutions, we challenge the common view that oil abundance affects economic growth negatively.

ASSESSING THE "ENGINES OF LIBERATION": HOME APPLIANCES AND FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION

The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroeconomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the declining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country data set on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to other structural determinants such as average male income. A decrease in the relative price of appliancesthe ratio of the price of appliances to the consumer price indexleads to a substantial and statistically significant increase in female labor force participation. In the United Kingdom, for instance, the decline in the relative price of home appliances alone accounts for about 10 to 15 of the increase in female labor force participation from 1975 to 1999. This result is robust to the inclusion of additional controls, such as country dummies, time trend, government spending, and the growth rate of real GDP. To assess causality, we test for exogeneity and use the manufactured price index and the terms of trade adjustment as instrumental variables confirming that lower appliance prices lead to increased female participation.

OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX AND STRUCTURAL REFORM

This paper analyzes the optimal inflation tax in economies with structural imperfections in labor, commodity, and currency markets. The Friedman rule is a classic result in economics that claims that the optimal monetary policy is to set a zero nominal interest rate. This Ramsey equilibrium is robust in a wide range of environments without imperfections in input, output, or financial markets. In many developing countries, however, a large fraction of activity takes place in the “informal†sector. Roughly speaking, the informal sector is the untaxed and unregulated market sometimes referred to as the underground economy. We obtain three results. First, we show that when structural imperfections such as an informal sector exist, the optimal inflation tax is positive. Second, we show that structural imperfections introduce an important asymmetry in the welfare cost function. Third, we provide quantitative results.

The Output Cost of Gender Discrimination: A Model‐Based Macroeconomics Estimate

Gender-based discrimination is a pervasive and costly phenomenon. To a greater or lesser extent, all economies present a gender wage gap, associated with lower female labor force participation rates and higher fertility. This paper presents a growth model where saving, fertility and labor market participation are endogenously determined, and there is wage discrimination. The model is calibrated to mimic the performance of the U.S. economy, including the gender wage gap and relative female labor force participation. We then compute the output cost of an increase in discrimination, to find that a 50 percent increase in the gender wage gap leads to a decrease in income per capita of a quarter of the original output. We then compile independent estimates of the female to male earnings ratio for a wide cross-section of countries to construct a new economy, in line with the benchmark U.S. economy, except for the degree of discrimination. We compare the level of output per capita predicted by this model economy with the actual output per capita for each country. Higher discrimination leads to lower output per capita for two reasons: a direct decrease in female labor market participation and an indirect effect through an increase in fertility. We find that for several countries a large fraction of the actual difference in output per capita between the U.S. and the different economies is due to gender inequality. For countries such as Ireland and Saudi Arabia, wage discrimination actually explainsall of the output difference with the U.S. Moreover, we find that the increase in fertility due to discrimination is responsible for almost half of the decrease in output per capita, and equivalent to the direct decrease in output due to lower female participation. Our basic model suggests the costs of gender discrimination are indeed quite substantial and should be a central concern in any macroeconomic policy aimed at increasing output per capita in the long-run.

WOMEN PREFER LARGER GOVERNMENTS: GROWTH, STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION, AND GOVERNMENT SIZE

The increase in income per capita is accompanied, in virtually all countries, by two changes in the structure of the economy, namely an increase in the share of government spending in GDP and an increase in female labour force participation. This paper suggests that these two changes are causally related. We develop a growth model where the structure of the economy is endogenous so that participation in market activities and government size are causally related. Economic growth and rising incomes are accompanied by a greater incentive for women to engage in labour market activities as the opportunity cost of staying at home increases. We hypothesize that government spending decreases the cost of performing household chores such as, but not limited to, child rearing and child care so that couples decide to engage further in the labour market and chose a higher tax rate to finance more government spending. Using a wide cross-section of data for developed and developing countries, we show that higher participation by women in the labour market are indeed positively associated with larger governments. Furthermore, we investigate the causal link between the two variables using as instrumental variables a unique and novel dataset on the relative price of home appliances across OECD countries and over time. We find strong evidence of a causal link between participation in the labour market and government size: a 10 percent rise in participation in the labour market leads to a 7 to 8 percent rise in government size. This effect is robust to the country sample, time period, and a set of controls in the spirit of Rodrik (1998). The inclusion of an endogenous choice of government spending allows a considerable extension of the model in Galor and Weil (2000) so fertility can either rise or fall and phenomena like the baby boom and baby bust in Greenwood at el. (2002) can be addressed. In addition, the paper has important implications for the analysis of the secular as well as cross-country determinants of government size.

Economic Integration without Policy Coordination: The Case of Mercosur

This paper analyses the evolution of the South American Common Market, Mercosur. It shows how the lack of coordination of macroeconomic policies, especially of the two major participants (Argentina and Brazil), had caused trade strains and conflicting interests in attracting foreign investments. Divergent macro-economic policies have had negative effects on bilateral trade due to the risk averseness (resulting from bilateral exchange rate volatilities) of exporters and importers, and due to the protectionist forces they have brought forth. The paper also shows how the lack of policy coordination caused increased confrontations with respect to Foreign Direct Investment in the region.

Does oil abundance harm growth

This article explores whether natural resource abundance is a curse. Our results reveal that oil abundance has a positive effect on both long-run income levels and short-run economic growth.

Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth

This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.

Corruption, credit market imperfections, and economic development

This paper studies the role of credit market imperfections and corruption on the process of economic development. We address the question of how much of the differences in output per capita across countries can be attributed to differences in credit market policies and corruption. In order to accomplish that, we construct and solve numerically a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, contractual imperfections and occupational choices. The quantitative exercises suggest that a country in which debt contracts are not enforced and corruption corresponds to 10% of output will be roughly 1/3 to 1/2 as rich as the United States. Though this is an important effect, it is a small fraction of the huge differences in income per capita across countries.

Cash transfers and the labor market

This paper studies the efects of cash transfers to the poor on the labor market. We investigate this issue by building a matching model of the labor market with endoge- nous job destruction in which agents can be in three states: employed, unemployed, or out of the labor force (home production). Workers are heterogenous in their labor market productivity. An idiosyncratic productivity shock arrives at constant instan- taneous rate. Depending on this shock, workers might want to leave the labor market and workers out of the labor force might decide to look for a job. We introduce cash transfers to all agents with income below some threshold level. We found two quali- tative results: (i) The size of cash transfers has a negative e®ect on the employment rate, but an ambiguous e®ect on the unemployment rate; and (ii) the coverage of this welfare program has a positive e®ect on the employment rate, and an ambiguous e®ect on the unemployment rate. We also provide some numerical simulations.