Tim Oxley

Integrated modelling and decision-support tools: a Mediterranean example

A great deal of new knowledge and research material have been generated from research carried out under the auspices of the European Union (EU). However, only a small amount has been made available as practical policy-support tools. In this paper, we describe how EU funded research models and understanding have been integrated into an interactive decision-support system addressing physical, economic and social aspects of land degradation in the Mediterranean. We summarise the 10 constituent models that simulate hydrology, human influences, crops, natural vegetation and climatic conditions. The models operate on very different spatial and temporal scales and utilise different modelling techniques and implementation languages. Many scientific, modelling and technical issues were encountered during the transformation of ‘research’ models into ‘policy’ models. We highlight the differences between each type of model and discuss some of the ontological and technical problems in re-using research models for policy-support, including resolving differences in temporal scale and some of the software engineering aspects of model integration. The involvement of policy-makers, ‘stakeholders’ and other end-users is essential for the specification of relevant decision-making issues and the development of useful interactive support tools. We discuss the problems of identifying both the decision-makers and the issues they perceive as important, their receptivity to such tools, and their roles in the policy-making process. Finally, we note the lessons learned, the resources needed, and the types of end-users, scientists and mediators required to ensure effective communication, technical development and exploitation of spatial modelling tools for integrated environmental decision-making.

Space, time and nesting Integrated Assessment Models

Integrated Assessment Modelling in the field of air pollution has advanced greatly since the 1985 Helsinki Protocol on the reduction of Sulphur emissions and their transboundary fluxes. With subsequent protocols and increased understanding of the inter-relationships between local air quality, transboundary air pollution and climate change, a variety of spatio-temporal issues must be addressed in order to model the multi-scalar processes involved and nest Integrated Assessment Models. We describe the state-of-the-art in Integrated Assessment Modelling using a conceptual framework which locates the research activities driving integrated assessment in relation both to each other and to flows of information between activities, and identify inter-relationships with scientific and policy domains beyond the scope of the UN/ECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, recognising the utility of social science in understanding the effects of policy on socio-cultural behaviours. We discuss how the issues identified are being captured by integrated assessment models, with particular focus on the treatment of non-technical pollution abatement measures, noting current developments at the micro-scale addressing the dynamics of behavioural responses to abatement policies. Finally, we identify three key challenges for issue-driven Integrated Assessment Modelling: (i) capturing the dynamics of behavioural responses to value-driven policy mechanisms designed to promote non-technical abatement measures; (ii) the development of new tools to handle the delay times, inter-dependencies and multi-pollutant effects of abatement measures; and (iii) the identification of boundaries between knowledge domains and the effective transfer of multi-disciplinary scientific and socio-cultural knowledge to an increasingly trans-disciplinary policy domain.

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM).

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10 and PM2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.

The UK Integrated Assessment Model, UKIAM: A National Scale Approach to the Analysis of Strategies for Abatement of Atmospheric Pollutants Under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

Integrated assessment modelling aims to bring together information on emissions, atmospheric transport between sources and exposed areas or populations, criteria for environmental protection, and potential emission control measures and their costs, in order to explore effective abatement strategies. We describe the development of a new UK scale Integrated Assessment Model which can be used to investigate strategies for the attainment of national emission ceilings. The model optimises abatement strategies in relation to acidification, eutrophication, and/or human-exposure to particulate PM10, with reference to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen (oxidised and reduced), and concentrations of primary and secondary particles. The model combines sector specific emissions, atmospheric transport and deposition, ecosystem specific critical load exceedances, and pollution abatement costs to determine optimised abatement strategies using benefit and, where applicable, recovery functions.

Synergies in addressing air quality and climate change

Air quality is a serious concern for the protection of human health and our natural environment. The pollutants contributing the most to both local and transboundary air pollution problems are SO2, NOx, NH3, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and fine particulate matter (PM), and mostly originate from the same sources as greenhouse gases. There are thus strong interactions between strategies designed to improve air quality and those addressing climate change. This article examines these interactions, and the benefits of combined strategies with greater attention to the overall environmental impacts, and finding the ‘win—win’ solutions. Illustrations are provided from the development of policy in Europe under the UN ECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, which is now inextricably linked with strategies to control greenhouse gases.

Illustrative national scale scenarios of environmental and human health impacts of Carbon Capture and Storage.

Integrated Assessment, and the development of strategies to reduce the impacts of air pollution, has tended to focus only upon the direct emissions from different sources, with the indirect emissions associated with the full life-cycle of a technology often overlooked. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) reflects a number of new technologies designed to reduce CO2 emissions, but which may have much broader environmental implications than greenhouse gas emissions. This paper considers a wider range of pollutants from a full life-cycle perspective, illustrating a methodology for assessing environmental impacts using source-apportioned effects based impact factors calculated by the national scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM). Contrasting illustrative scenarios for the deployment of CCS towards 2050 are presented which compare the life-cycle effects of air pollutant emissions upon human health and ecosystems of business-as-usual, deployment of CCS and widespread uptake of IGCC for power generation. Together with estimation of the transboundary impacts we discuss the benefits of an effects based approach to such assessments in relation to emissions based techniques.

INDICATORS OF SOCIO-NATURAL CHANGE: SCIENTIFIC MEANING AND CONTEXTUAL INTERPRETATION

This paper addresses the disparity and conflict between scientific meaning and the contextualised interpretation of (predominately) empirical indicators. This disparity arises due to the difficulty that the scientific community experiences when attempting to communicate with the political and planning community whose perspective remains outside the scope of both the indicator and the tools used. We suggest that for empirical science to be communicated effectively to a policy oriented audience it must be transformed through both theoretical and virtual contexts. The significance of this approach is that at every stage communication becomes possible through a common negotiated reference point, or set of reference points. We highlight a mismatch between the science and the response, emphasising the value of an integrative approach to assessing environmental change and the need for accessible decision support tools in formulating responses to changes in the human-environmental balance. We propose a framework which directly addresses the perceptual, empirical, theoretical and virtual dimensions of indicators and through which the conflicts between the science and the interpretation of socio-natural change may be overcome.

Health and environmental co-benefits and conflicts of actions to meet UK carbon targets

Many actions to reduce GHG emissions have wider impacts on health, the economy, and the environment, beyond their role in mitigating climate change. These ancillary impacts can be positive (co-benefits) or negative (conflicts). This article presents the first quantitative review of the wider impacts on health and the environment likely to arise from action to meet the UKs legally-binding carbon budgets. Impacts were assessed for climate measures directed at power generation, energy use in buildings, and industry, transport, and agriculture. The study considered a wide range of health and environmental impacts including air pollution, noise, the upstream impacts of fuel extraction, and the lifestyle benefits of active travel. It was not possible to quantify all impacts, but for those that were monetized the co-benefits of climate action (i.e. excluding climate benefits) significantly outweigh the negative impacts, with a net present value of more than £85 billion from 2008 to 2030. Substantial benefits arise from reduced congestion, pollution, noise, and road accidents as a result of avoided journeys. There is also a large health benefit as a result of increased exercise from walking and cycling instead of driving. Awareness of these benefits could strengthen the case for more ambitious climate mitigation action. Policy relevance This article demonstrates that actions to mitigate GHG emissions have significant wider benefits for health and the environment. Including these impacts in cost–benefit analysis would strengthen the case for the UK (and similar countries) to set ambitious emissions reduction targets. Understanding co-benefits and trade-offs will also improve coordination across policy areas and cut costs. In addition, co-benefits such as air quality improvements are often immediate and local, whereas climate benefits may occur on a longer timescale and mainly in a distant region, as well as being harder to demonstrate. Dissemination of the benefits, along with better anticipation of trade-offs, could therefore boost public support for climate action.

Investigating the sensitivity of health benefits to focussed PM2.5 emission abatement strategies

Modelling, pollution monitoring and epidemiological studies all have a role to play in developing effective policies to improve air quality and human health. Epidemiological studies have shown that of particular importance are the effects of fine particulate matter, PM10 and PM2.5 which can penetrate into human lungs. At present it is not clear which components of PM are responsible for health effects although toxicological studies have identified several potential factors. Hence, based on WHO guidance, current legislation has focused on the total mass, with the EC setting limit values on total PM10, followed by target reductions for population exposure to PM2.5 in urban agglomerations. Trends in measured concentrations at selected urban monitoring stations are required as evidence for achievement of these reductions. This paper addresses these issues at the borough level in London using the integrated assessment model UKIAM, developed originally for application at the national scale, with illustrations comparing abatement of two contrasting sources - domestic combustion and road transport. The former, dominated by natural gas generating NOX emissions, contributes to longer range secondary PM formation extending beyond the city. The latter is an important source of black carbon as a primary pollutant causing local exposure, as well as NOX. WHO data is used in relation to impacts of particle concentrations by mass, and response functions for black carbon are taken from the literature. The results show that from a city perspective there are enhanced benefits from reducing the road transport emissions, especially with regard to potential toxicity of black carbon. The scenarios modelled also highlight the spatial variations of benefits across London, and illustrate deviations from trends as represented by limited monitoring data from the different boroughs, together with the influence upon exposure of mobile population within the city. We use integrated assessment modelling to focus strategies to benefit human health.We quantify the variable potential for health benefits in different London boroughs.We highlight the greatly increased health benefits of focussing upon black carbon.We discuss the uncertainties in reported health impacts of fine particulate matter.We suggest greater possible benefit under the EC Directive by reducing BC emissions.

UNDERSTANDING PERCEPTIONS OF CHANGE: A PATHWAYS CONTRIBUTION TO COMMUNITY CONSULTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING

Participation has become part of the language of environmental management. While this move is positive there remains a danger that overly formalised and restricted participatory procedures, in terms of the information sought, may constrain and hinder dialogue and learning between the public and management agencies. Responses to specific issues are often sought from members of the public without a clear understanding about whether those issues are salient to them, where they are salient or how they fit into multiple and dynamic interpretations of environmental change. This paper uses case study material from the UK to demonstrate a novel Pathways Approach to the recording and analysis of individual perceptions about environmental change. The approach seeks to concentrate on experience and interpretation and is based on the conceptualisation of perceived cause–effect relationships and the pathways that support them. The links between time, space and community are considered within this analysis, as is the potential for improved participation through the provision of policy relevant information to planners and environmental managers operating in complex, multi-perspective situations.