Timothy M. Merlis

Atmospheric Dynamics of Earth‐Like Tidally Locked Aquaplanets

We present simulations of atmospheres of Earth-like aquaplanets that are tidally locked to their star, that is, planets whose orbital period is equal to the rotation period about their spin axis, so that one side always faces the star and the other side is always dark. Such simulations are of interest in the study of tidally locked terrestrial exoplanets and as illustrations of how planetary rotation and the insolation distribution shape climate. As extreme cases illustrating the effects of slow and rapid rotation, we consider planets with rotation periods equal to one current Earth year and one current Earth day. The dynamics responsible for the surface climate (e.g., winds, temperature, precipitation) and the general circulation of the atmosphere are discussed in light of existing theories of atmospheric circulations. For example, as expected from the increasing importance of Coriolis accelerations relative to inertial accelerations as the rotation rate increases, the winds are approximately isotropic and divergent at leading order in the slowly rotating atmosphere but are predominantly zonal and rotational in the rapidly rotating atmosphere. Free-atmospheric horizontal temperature variations in the slowly rotating atmosphere are generally weaker than in the rapidly rotating atmosphere. Interestingly, the surface temperature on the night side of the planets does not fall below ∼240 K in either the rapidly or slowly rotating atmosphere; that is, heat transport from the day side to the night side of the planets efficiently reduces temperature contrasts in either case. Rotational waves and eddies shape the distribution of winds, temperature, and precipitation in the rapidly rotating atmosphere; in the slowly rotating atmosphere, these distributions are controlled by simpler divergent circulations. Both the slowly and rapidly rotating atmospheres exhibit equatorial superrotation. Systematic variation of the planetary rotation rate shows that the equatorial superrotation varies non-monotonically with rotation rate, whereas the surface temperature contrast between the day side and the night side does not vary strongly with changes in rotation rate.

Direct weakening of tropical circulations from masked CO2 radiative forcing.

Significance The response of the atmospheric circulation to anthropogenic carbon dioxide changes has consequences for socially important aspects of climate, including rainfall and hurricane development. A substantial body of literature relates circulation weakening to temperature changes; however, it has been recently discovered that there is also a direct weakening of tropical overturning circulations from increased carbon dioxide concentration, which are independent of temperature changes. However, the cause of this direct slowing of the circulation has not been revealed. Here, I introduce a physical mechanism for the direct circulation weakening that accounts for its ubiquity across climate simulations. The previously unidentified mechanism is demonstrated across a hierarchy of atmospheric simulations including those used in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate models robustly simulate weakened mean circulations of the tropical atmosphere in direct response to increased carbon dioxide (CO2). The direct response to CO2, defined by the response to radiative forcing in the absence of changes in sea surface temperature, affects tropical precipitation and tropical cyclone genesis, and these changes have been tied to the weakening of the mean tropical circulation. The mechanism underlying this direct CO2-forced circulation change has not been elucidated. Here, I demonstrate that this circulation weakening results from spatial structure in CO2’s radiative forcing. In regions of ascending circulation, such as the intertropical convergence zone, the CO2 radiative forcing is reduced, or “masked,” by deep-convective clouds and high humidity; in subsiding regions, such as the subtropics, the CO2 radiative forcing is larger because the atmosphere is drier and deep-convective clouds are infrequent. The spatial structure of the radiative forcing reduces the need for the atmosphere to transport energy. This, in turn, weakens the mass overturning of the tropical circulation. The previously unidentified mechanism is demonstrated in a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulation model simulations with altered radiative transfer to suppress the cloud masking of the radiative forcing. The mechanism depends on the climatological distribution of clouds and humidity, rather than uncertain changes in these quantities. Masked radiative forcing thereby offers an explanation for the robustness of the direct circulation weakening under increased CO2.

The Tropical Precipitation Response to Orbital Precession

Orbital precession changes the seasonal distribution of insolation at a given latitude but not the annual mean. Hence, the correlation of paleoclimate proxies of annual-mean precipitation with orbital precession implies a nonlinear rectification in the precipitation response to seasonal solar forcing. It has previously been suggested that the relevant nonlinearity is that of the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship. Here it is argued that adifferentnonlinearityrelatedtomoistureadvectionbytheatmosphericcirculationismoreimportant.When perihelion changes from one hemisphere’s summer solstice to the other’s in an idealized aquaplanet atmospheric general circulation model, annual-mean precipitation increases in the hemisphere with the brighter, warmer summer and decreases in the other hemisphere, in qualitative agreement with paleoclimate proxies that indicate such hemispherically antisymmetric climate variations. The rectification mechanism that gives rise to the precipitation changes is identified by decomposing the perturbation water vapor budget into ‘‘thermodynamic’’ and ‘‘dynamic’’ components. Thermodynamic changes (caused by changes in humidity with unchanged winds) dominate the hemispherically antisymmetric annual-mean precipitation response to precession in the absence of land‐sea contrasts. The nonlinearity that enables the thermodynamic changes to affect annual-mean precipitation is a nonlinearity of moisture advection that arises because precessioninduced seasonal humidity changes correlate with the seasonal cycle in low-level convergence. This interpretationisconfirmedusingsimulationsinwhichtheClausius‐Clapeyronrelationshipisexplicitlylinearized. The thermodynamic mechanism also operates in simulations with an idealized representation of land, although in these simulations the dynamic component of the precipitation changes is also important, adding to the thermodynamic precipitation changes in some latitudes and offsetting it in others.

Changes in Zonal Surface Temperature Gradients and Walker Circulations in a Wide Range of Climates

Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The asymmetry in the tropical climate is generated by an imposed ocean energy flux, which does not vary with climate. The range of climates is simulated by modifying the optical thickness of an idealized longwave absorber (representing greenhouse gases). The zonal surface temperature gradient in low latitudes generally decreases as the climate warms in the idealized GCM simulations. A scaling relationship based on a two-term balance in the surface energy budget accounts for the changes in the zonally asymmetric component of the GCM-simulated surface temperature. The Walker circulation weakens as the climate warms in the idealized simulations, as it does in comprehensive simulations of climate change. The wide range of climates allows a systematic test of energetic arguments that have been proposed to account for these changes in the tropical circulation. The analysis shows that a scaling estimate based on changes in the hydrological cycle (precipitation rate and saturation specific humidity) accounts for the simulated changes in the Walker circulation. However, it must be evaluated locally, with local precipitation rates. If global-mean quantities are used, the scaling estimate does not generally account for changes in the Walker circulation, and the extent to which it does is the result of compensating errors in changes in precipitation and saturation specific humidity that enter the scaling estimate.

Large-scale ocean circulation-cloud interactions reduce the pace of transient climate change

Changes to the large-scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Hadley Circulation Response to Orbital Precession. Part I: Aquaplanets

The responseof the monsoonaland annual-meanHadley circulation to orbital precession is examined in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model with an aquaplanet slab-ocean lower boundary. Contrary to expectations, the simulated monsoonal Hadley circulation is weaker when perihelion occurs at the summer solstice than when aphelion occurs at the summer solstice. The angular momentum balance and energy balance are examined to understand the mechanisms that produce this result. That the summer with stronger insolation has a weaker circulation is the result of an increase in the atmosphere’s energetic stratification, the gross moist stability, which increases more than the amount required to balance the change in atmospheric energy flux divergence necessitated by the change in top-of-atmosphere net radiation. The solstice-season changes result in annual-mean Hadley circulation changes (e.g., changes in circulation strength).

Scales of Linear Baroclinic Instability and Macroturbulence in Dry Atmospheres

Linear stability analyses are performed on a wide range of mean flows simulated with a dry idealized general circulation model. The zonal length scale of the linearly most unstable waves is similar to the Rossby radius. It is also similar to the energy-containing zonal length scale in statistically steady states of corresponding nonlinear simulations. The meridional length scale of the linearly most unstable waves is generally smaller than the energy-containing meridional length scale in the corresponding nonlinear simulations. The growth rate of the most unstable waves increases with increasing Eady growth rate, but the scaling relationship is not linear in general. The available potential energy and barotropic and baroclinic kinetic energies of the linearly most unstable waves scale linearly with each other, with similar partitionings among the energy forms as in the corresponding nonlinear simulations. These results show that the mean flows in the nonlinear simulations are baroclinically unstable, yet there is no substantial inverse cascade of barotropic eddy kinetic energy from the baroclinic generation scale to larger scales, even in strongly unstable flows. Some aspects of the nonlinear simulations, such as partitionings among eddy energies, can be understood on the basis of linear stability analyses; for other aspects, such as the structure of heat and momentum fluxes, nonlinear modifications of the waves are important.

Hadley Circulation Response to Orbital Precession. Part II: Subtropical Continent

The responseof the monsoonaland annual-meanHadley circulation to orbital precession is examined in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model with a simplified representation of land surface processes in subtropical latitudes. When perihelion occurs in the summer of a hemisphere with a subtropical continent, changesin the top-of-atmosphereenergy balance,togetherwith a polewardshift ofthe monsoonalcirculation boundary, lead to a strengthening of the monsoonal circulation. Spatial variations in surface heat capacity determine whether radiative perturbations are balanced by energy storage or by atmospheric energy fluxes. Althoughorbitalprecessiondoesnotaffectannual-meaninsolation,theannual-meanHadleycirculationdoes respond to orbital precession because its sensitivity to radiative changes varies over the course of the year: the monsoonal circulation in summer is near the angular momentum-conserving limit and responds directly to radiative changes; whereas in winter, the circulation is affected by the momentum fluxes of extratropical eddies and is less sensitive to radiative changes.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractCoupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1% yr−1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%–15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating th...

Surface temperature dependence of tropical cyclone-permitting simulations in a spherical model with uniform thermal forcing

Tropical cyclone (TC)-permitting general circulation model simulations are performed with spherical geometry and uniform thermal forcing, including uniform sea surface temperature (SST) and insolation. The dependence of the TC number and TC intensity on SST is examined in a series of simulations with varied SST. The results are compared to corresponding simulations with doubly periodic f-plane geometry, rotating radiative convective equilibrium. The turbulent equilibria in simulations with spherical geometry have an inhomogenous distribution of TCs with the density of TCs increasing from low to high latitudes. The preferred region of TC genesis is the subtropics, but genesis shifts poleward and becomes less frequent with increasing SST. Both rotating radiative convective equilibrium and spherical geometry simulations have decreasing TC number and increasing TC intensity as SST is increased.