Todd K. BenDor

Bioenergy and land use: a spatial-agent dynamic model of energy crop production in Illinois

To reduce dependence on foreign oil and natural gas and address concerns about climate change, the USA is increasingly developing renewable, domestic energy sources, notably biomass for the production of ethanol and biodiesel. Illinois, as one of the farming states of the Midwest, has significant potential to produce bioenergy crops. Land requirements place these crops in competition with traditional agricultural uses. To understand this interaction, this study examines the spatial and economic conditions for introducing bioenergy crops into the landscape in Illinois, which varies in soil quality and climatic conditions, and therefore in the profitability of various land uses. We use a spatial dynamic model to represent the decisions of individual farmer agents who select crops to increase their income. With this dynamic, evolutionary game approach we study the changing spatial arrangement of four key crops (corn, soybeans, miscanthus and switchgrass) which is influenced by decision rules, demands, prices, subsidies and carbon credits as well as the location of ethanol plants and transportation patterns. With a growing demand for biofuels farmers adjust their priorities towards productive bioenergy crops such as switchgrass and miscanthus which result in new land-use patterns across Illinois.

Stacking ecosystem services

Ecosystem service markets are increasingly used as a policy solution to environmental problems ranging from endangered species to climate change. Such markets trade in ecosystem credits created at restoration sites where conservation projects are designed and built to compensate for regulated environmental impacts. “Credit stacking” occurs when multiple, spatially overlapping credits representing different ecosystem services are sold separately to compensate for different impacts. Discussion of stacking has grown rapidly over the past three years, and it will generate increasing interest given the growing multibillion-dollar international market in carbon, habitat, and water-quality credits. Because ecosystem functions at compensation sites are interdependent and integrated, stacking may result in net environmental losses. Unless stacked compensation sites and impact sites are treated symmetrically in the accounting of environmental gains and losses, stacking may also cause environmental gains at compensa...

Sharing the floodplain: Mediated modeling for environmental management

Complex ecosystems, such as the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), present major management challenges. Such systems often provide a range of ecosystem services that are differentially valued by stakeholders representing distinct interests (e.g., agriculture, conservation, navigation) or institutions (e.g., federal and state agencies). When no single entity has the knowledge or authority to resolve conflicts over shared resource use, stakeholders may struggle to jointly understand the scope of the problem and to reach reasonable compromises. This paper explores mediated modeling as a group consensus building process for understanding relationships between ecological, economic and cultural well-being in the UMR floodplain. We describe a workshop structure used to engage UMR stakeholders that may be extended to resource use conflicts in other complex ecosystems. We provide recommendations for improving on these participatory methods in structuring future efforts. In conclusion, we suggest that tools which facilitate collaborative learning, such as mediated modeling, need to be incorporated at an institutional level as a vital element of integrated ecosystem management.

The Social Impacts of Wetland Mitigation Policies in the United States

Concern over the threat to wetlands from urban development has increased with rising levels of suburbanization. This article provides an extensive overview of the literature on the history and structure of U.S. wetland conservation policy. The authors focus on regulations that permit wetland destruction in return for mitigation of wetland damage and highlight concerns that current wetland mitigation policies may lead to the redistribution of wetland benefits among specific population groups. Researchers and planners have yet to construct systems that enable them to answer a very basic question : Does wetland mitigation contribute to social disparity and inequity? The authors outline a data collection framework for use in determining if and how social disparities may occur during mitigation. They also discuss the use of spatial and temporal preference measures as a tool for addressing these considerations. Finally, they discuss how recent Supreme Court limitations on federal jurisdiction over wetlands may alter the roles and responsibilities of planners, arguing that these new roles may provide the opportunity for planners to fully incorporate social considerations into mitigation decisions.

Estimating the Size and Impact of the Ecological Restoration Economy

Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broad-scale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actions — the activities that are part of what we term the “restoration economy.” In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national input-output model (IMPLAN 3.1) in order to estimate the indirect and induced economic impacts of restoration activities. Based on this analysis we conclude that the domestic ecological restoration sector directly employs ~ 126,000 workers and generates ~

Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Wetland Mitigation in the Chicago Region

9.5 billion in economic output (sales) annually. This activity supports an additional 95,000 jobs and

A Technique for Rapidly Forecasting Regional Urban Growth

15 billion in economic output through indirect (business-to-business) linkages and increased household spending.

Overcompliance in Water Quality Trading Programs: Findings from a Qualitative Case Study in North Carolina

Abstract Under current federal and local wetland protection regulations, damage to wetlands from urban development must be mitigated. A variety of mitigation methods exist, several of which create or restore wetlands elsewhere to compensate for losses at the site of the original wetland impact. Critics assert that such mitigation programs relocate wetlands from urban to rural areas, causing disparities. This article analyzes 1,058 permitted wetland mitigation transactions in the Chicago region between 1993 and 2004. Our analysis shows that some wetlands are relocated from urban to rural areas, but we also find that wetlands are moved between suburban areas. Most relocated wetlands move from areas with high population densities to areas with much lower densities, though one mitigation method did not have this effect. Our analysis demonstrates that the mitigation method chosen affects whether there are significant socioeconomic differences between the area where the original wetland impact occurs and that in which the newly created or renovated wetland is located. These findings suggest that planners must take relocation and redistributive effects into account in setting up and administering mitigation programs, particularly as responsibility for wetland protection shifts from federal to local regulators.

The land value impacts of wetland restoration

Recent technological and theoretical advances have helped produce a wide variety of computer models for simulating future urban land-use change. However, implementing these models is often cost prohibitive due to intensive data-collection requirements and complex technical implementation. There is a growing need for a rapid, inexpensive method to project regional urban growth for the purposes of assessing environmental impacts and implementing long-term growth-management plans. We present the Regional Urban Growth (RUG) model, an extensible mechanism for assessing the relative attractiveness of a given location for urban growth within a region. This model estimates development attraction for every location in a rasterized landscape on the basis of proximity to development attractors, such as existing dense development, roads, highways, and natural amenities. RUG can be rapidly installed, parameterized, calibrated, and run on almost any several-county region within the USA. We implement the RUG model for a twelve-county region surrounding the Jordan Lake Reservoir, an impoundment of the Haw River Watershed (North Carolina, USA). This reservoir is experiencing major water-quality problems due to increased runoff from rapid urban growth. We demonstrate the RUG model by testing three scenarios that assume (1) ‘business-as-usual’ growth levels, (2) enforcement of state-mandated riparian buffer regulations, and (3) riparian buffer regulations augmented with forecast conservation measures. Our findings suggest that the RUG model can be useful not only for environmental assessments, stakeholder engagement, and regional planning purposes, but also for studying specific state and regional policy interventions on the direction and location of future growth pressure.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio‐environmental modeling

Nutrient trading systems are increasingly common elements of water pollution control programs. Participants in these programs often appear to be economically irrational since programs can drive regulatory overcompliance, while promoting few transactions. We examine this behavior through a case study of a nitrogen trading program in the rapidly urbanizing Neuse River basin, North Carolina (USA). Program analysis, meeting observations, and a series of semistructured interviews with wastewater dischargers (point sources) revealed factors promoting overcompliance by the Neuse River Compliance Association (NRCA). In particular, overcompliance and low trading volume in the NRCA can be explained by participant hedging against uncertainty in the regions future population growth and land-use change. Public sector participants in high-growth areas are likely to engage in high levels of information sharing and collaborative abatement activities. This work has implications for water-quality trading program design, particularly those involving public sector participants concerned about undercompliance due to future growth.