Tomoaki Ose

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM*

AbstractNew versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCM version 3.2) have been developed and used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Compared with the previous version (version 3.1), version 3.2 yields a more realistic simulation of the present-day (1979–2003) global distribution of TCs. Moreover, the 20-km-mesh model version 3.2 is able to simulate extremely intense TCs (categories 4 and 5), which is the first time a global climate model has been able to simulate such extremely intense TCs through a multidecadal simulation. Future (2075–99) projections under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario are conducted using versions 3.1 and 3.2, showing consistent decreases in the number of TCs globally and in both hemispheres as climate warms. Although projected future changes in basin-scale TC numbers show some differences between the two versions, t...

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

AbstractWhile a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences...

AMIP Simulations of the MRI GCM.

This paper summarizes the results of a 10-year integration of the MRI GCMs participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Models are integrated with the lower boundary conditions of the observed SST and sea ice distributions from January 1979 to December 1988. Standard outputs with the 15-layer model are compared to observations and those with the 5-layer tropospheric model. It is shown that some of model deficiencies in the 5-layer model reported in previous papers are improved in the new 15-layer model climatology. Some of the differences in interannual variations in the mid-latitudes responding to the tropical SST forcing between the two models can be attributed to different model climatology.

Effect of air‐sea coupling on the frequency distribution of intense tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific

Effect of air-sea coupling on the frequency distribution of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) region is investigated using an atmosphere and ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). Monthly varying flux adjustment enables AOGCM to simulate both subseasonal air-sea interaction and realistic seasonal to interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The maximum of intense TC distribution around 20–30°N in the AGCM shifts equatorward in the AOGCM due to the air-sea coupling. Hence, AOGCM reduces northward intense TC distribution bias seen in AGCM. Over the NWP, AOGCM-simulated SST variability is large around 20–30°N where the warm mixed layer becomes shallower rapidly. Active entrainment from subsurface water over this region causes stronger SST cooling, and hence, TC intensity decreases. These results suggest that air-sea coupling characterized by subsurface oceanic condition causes more realistic distribution of intense TCs over the NWP.

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM

Atmosphere-ocean coupling effect on the frequency distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and its future change is studied using an atmosphere and ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). In the present climate simulation, the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the AOGCM improves biases in the AGCM such as the poleward shift of the maximum of intense TC distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and too many intense TCs in the Southern Hemisphere. Particularly, subsurface cold water plays a key role to reduce these AGCM biases of intense TC distribution. Besides, the future change of intense TC distribution is significantly different between AOGCM and AGCM despite the same monthly SST. In the north Atlantic, subsurface warming causes larger increase in frequency of intense TCs in AOGCM than that in AGCM. Such subsurface warming in AOGCM also acts to alter large decrease of intense TC in AGCM to no significant change in AOGCM over the southwestern Indian Ocean. These results suggest that atmosphere-ocean coupling characterized by subsurface oceanic structure is responsible for more realistic intense TC distribution in the current climate simulation and gives significant impacts on its future projection.

Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

A comparison between general circulation model simulations using two sea surface temperature datasets for January 1979

Abstract Simulations with the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using two different global sea surface temperature (SST) datasets for January 1979 are compared. One of these datasets is based on COADS (SSTs) at locations where there are ship reports, and climatology elsewhere; the other is derived from measurements by instruments onboard NOAA satellites. In the former dataset (COADS SST), data are concentrated along shipping routes in the Northern Hemisphere; in the latter dataset (HIRS SST), data cover the global domain. Ensembles of five 30-day mean fields are obtained from integrations performed in the perpetual-January mode. The results are presented as anomalies, that is, departures of each ensemble mean from that produced in a control simulation with climatological SSTs. Large differences are found between the anomalies obtained using COADS and HIRS SSTs, even in the Northern Hemisphere where the datasets am most similar to each other. The internal variability of the circulation in t...