Torsten J. Selck

Between Power and Luck: The European Parliament in the EU Legislative Process

Taking Barry’s (1980a,b) question ‘Is it better to be powerful or lucky?’ as a starting point, we try to answer the question of how influential the European Parliament is in the European Union (EU) legislative process. We assess the proximity between what the Parliament wants and what it eventually gets and whether this is the result of its own power or the similarity between its position and the positions of other EU actors. The empirical analysis uses different models of legislative decision-making and shows that the European Parliament has been rather influential under co-decision and it has been ‘lucky’ for most legislation negotiated under the consultation procedure. Differentiating between capabilities and preferences, and therefore between ‘power’ and ‘luck’, remains crucial in explaining political outcomes.

Mapping Out Political Europe: Coalition Patterns in EU Decision-Making

This article evaluates member states’ and supranational institutions’ preference patterns in European Union decision-making. We present a research design that encompasses data on the policy profiles of the 15 member states, the Commission, and the European Parliament for 70 European legal acts that were negotiated just before the May 2004 enlargement. We apply principal-component analysis which results in reduction of the different policy issues into a three-dimensional solution. The Commission and the European Parliament are much more favorable toward increased integration than the Council members are. Thus, there appears to be a “north versus south” coalition pattern rather than a “Franco-German axis.” The positions of Ireland and Belgium indicate that the member states’ status as net contributors or net receivers of European Union subsidies are important. Our findings do not support the pro-less integrationist argument nor the left-right dimension that reconciles economic and sociopolitical issues.

On the Dimensionality of European Union Legislative Decision-Making

In this article I test spatial models of European Union (EU) legislative decisionmaking regarding the dimensionality of the policy space. After clarifying the concept of dimensionality, I review the existing literature. I then map out possible ways to test these models based on different dimensionality assumptions. Using quantitative data on actor positions for EU legislative politics, I .rst employ dimension-reducing techniques. The results show that this technique is not appropriate for generating a decreased number of underlying dimensions for the data at hand and that a one- or two-dimensional European policy space cannot be detected. Shifting to more theory-based analysis, I calculate the predicted outcomes for voting models of the EU under different spatial con.gurations. The findings show that the formal models’ predictive power increases with the use of multi-dimensional policy spaces. I conclude by interpreting these findings in the light of a more general debate on evaluating the decision space assumed bymodels of group decision-making.

Explaining the absence of inertia in European Union legislative decision-making

Starting from the observation that supermajorities are needed to pass legislation in the European Union (EU), this article tries to answer the question why this organization passes as many new laws as it does. A possible pattern of explanation is mapped out which focuses on dissimilarity between actor preferences in relation to the legislative status quo. Using power index analysis and computer simulation, the potential for passing new legislation under the different procedural arrangements is first evaluated. Principal component analyses is then used to focus on likely coalition patterns of the actors who are involved in the EU legislative process and to locate the positions of these actors in relation to the position of the current state of affairs. The findings show that the absence of legislative inertia in the European Union can be explained, firstly, by the relative distance between a majority of EU policy-makers to the legislative status quo; and, secondly, by the dimensionality of the underlying issue space.

Shared hesitance, joint success: Denmark, Finland, and Sweden in the European Union policy process

This paper analyses the roles of Denmark, Finland, and Sweden in the area of EU legislative decision-making. After reviewing the literature, a research design is presented which incorporates information on the policy preferences of these three political states for seventy recent EU legislative decisions. The findings of the analysis are that the positions of the Nordics are quite similar and that these three states are rather successful. Denmark is doing slightly worse than Finland and Sweden Sanneke Kuipers, Department of Public Administration, Leiden University, PO Box 9555, 2300 RB Leiden, The Netherlands. email: kuiperss@fsw.leidenuniv.nlThis paper analyses the roles of Denmark, Finland, and Sweden in the area of EU legislative decision-making. After reviewing the literature, a research design is presented which incorporates information on the policy preferences of these three political states for seventy recent EU legislative decisions. The findings of the analysis are that the positions of the Nordics are quite similar and that these three states are rather successful. Denmark is doing slightly worse than Finland and Sweden Sanneke Kuipers, Department of Public Administration, Leiden University, PO Box 9555, 2300 RB Leiden, The Netherlands. email: kuiperss@fsw.leidenuniv.nl

The European Parliament's Legislative Powers Reconsidered – Assessing the Current State of the Procedural Models Literature

This article maps out the state of affairs of the academic literature which uses procedural spatial voting models to explain legislative decision-making in the European Union. Employing Tsebeliss (1994) article in which the author models the Unions co-operation procedure and using it as a reference point, I show that there is no clarity yet as to which of the several existing procedural model specifications yields the most convincing results. I conclude by suggesting how the current situation could be improved, and that procedural modelling might be integrated with other rational choice theory for a better understanding of the ongoing evolution of the policymaking instruments in the European Union.

Evaluating the predictive power of a procedural model for the European Union legislative process

This article analyses the European Union legislative process with the help of formal models of decision-making. The predictions gained from a procedural model are compared with the power of a much simpler model that is informed by the median voter theorem. The finding of the analysis shows that the simpler model out-performs the more complex one. The article proceeds by deriving the hypothesis that the more salient an issue is for EU policy-makers, the higher the probability becomes that the procedural model out-performs the median model. The test results show that this hypothesis can be confirmed.

Principal Agent Theory and Artificial Information Asymmetry

This article evaluates the potential for the concept of ‘artificial information asymmetry’ to be used in political studies which focus on principal agent theory. We present real-world examples and excerpts from political writings to support our argument that, although artificial information asymmetry appears to be an important factor in principal agent relations, the concept has been underemployed in the political science agency literature. To be able to present more realistic scenarios of delegation, political scientists might be well advised to incorporate the concept so that it can be used in applied research.

New Labour's Ethical Dimension: Statistical Trends in Tony Blair's Foreign Policy Speeches

Debate has raged over the extent to which New Labour has succeeded in incorporating an ethical dimension in British foreign policy. The assumption has been that New Labour at least changed the context of foreign policy by adopting a more moralistic language. However, there has been no attempt as yet to show this statistically. Using computer-assisted content analysis of Margaret Thatchers, Robin Cooks and Tony Blairs foreign policy speeches, and assuming that Blair, as opposed to Cook, is the representative voice of New Labour, this research finds that New Labour has indeed changed the context significantly. However, this change did not occur until after the events of 9/11.

Improving the explanatory power of bargaining models - New evidence from European Union studies

Focusing on recent studies of European Union legislative decision-making, this research note evaluates the current literature that attempts to improve the explanatory power of bargaining models by integrating game-theoretic spatial models with micro-level data gained from expert interviews or from document analyses.