Tracy Ewen

Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years

Large progress has been made in the past few years towards quantifying and understanding climate variability during past centuries. At the same time, present-day climate has been studied using state-of-the-art data sets and tools with respect to the physical and chemical mechanisms governing climate variability. Both the understanding of the past and the knowledge of the processes are important for assessing and attributing the anthropogenic effect on present and future climate. The most important time period in this context is the past approximately 100 years, which comprises large natural variations and extremes (such as long droughts) as well as anthropogenic influences, most pronounced in the past few decades. Recent and ongoing research efforts steadily improve the observational record of the 20th century, while atmospheric circulation models are used to underpin the mechanisms behind large climatic variations. Atmospheric chemistry and composition are important for understanding climate variability and change, and considerable progress has been made in the past few years in this field. The evolving integration of these research areas in a more comprehensive analysis of recent climate variability was reflected in the organisation of a workshop “Climate variability and extremes in the past 100 years” in Gwatt near Thun (Switzerland), 24–26 July 2006. The aim of this workshop was to bring together scientists working on data issues together with statistical climatologists, modellers, and atmospheric chemists to discuss gaps in our understanding of climate variability during the past approximately 100 years.

The Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network

To better understand variability in weather and climate, it is vital to address past atmospheric circulation. This need requires meteorological information not just from the surface but also at upper levels. Current global upper-level datasets only reach back to the 1940s or 1950s and do not cover some important periods in the first half of the twentieth century. Extending the observational record is therefore considered important in order to analyze climate variability in the past and verify global climate models used to predict future climate change. Although earlier upper-air data from platforms such as radiosondes, aircraft, pilot balloons, registering balloons, and kites are available from various sources, no systematic compilation and quality assessment of upper-level data prior to the International Geophysical Year (1957/58) has ever been performed. Here we present the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network (CHUAN). It is a consistent global historical upper-air dataset that has been derived fr...

A multi-data set comparison of the vertical structure of temperature variability and change over the Arctic during the past 100 years

We compare the daily, interannual, and decadal variability and trends in the thermal structure of the Arctic troposphere using eight observation-based, vertically resolved data sets, four of which have data prior to 1948. Comparisons on the daily scale between historical reanalysis data and historical upper-air observations were performed for Svalbard for the cold winters 1911/1912 and 1988/1989, the warm winters 1944/1945 and 2005/2006, and the International Geophysical Year 1957/1958. Excellent agreement is found at mid-tropospheric levels. Near the ground and at the tropopause level, however, systematic differences are identified. On the interannual time scale, the correlations between all data sets are high, but there are systematic biases in terms of absolute values as well as discrepancies in the magnitude of the variability. The causes of these differences are discussed. While none of the data sets individually may be suitable for trend analysis, consistent features can be identified from analyzing all data sets together. To illustrate this, we examine trends and 20-year averages for those regions and seasons that exhibit large sea-ice changes and have enough data for comparison. In the summertime Pacific Arctic and the autumn eastern Canadian Arctic, the lower tropospheric temperature anomalies for the recent two decades are higher than in any previous 20-year period. In contrast, mid-tropospheric temperatures of the European Arctic in the wintertime of the 1920s and 1930s may have reached values as high as those of the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

Reconstruction of Global Monthly Upper-Level Temperature and Geopotential Height Fields Back to 1880

Abstract This work presents statistically reconstructed global monthly mean fields of temperature and geopotential height (GPH) up to 100 hPa for the period 1880–1957. For the statistical model several thousand predictors were used, comprising a large amount of historical upper-air data as well as data from the earth’s surface. In the calibration period (1958–2001), the statistical models were fit using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as the predictand. After the weighting of the predictors, principal component (PC) analyses were performed on both the predictand and predictor dataset. Multiple linear regression models relate each principal component time series from the predictand with an optimal subset of principal component time series from the predictor. To assess the quality of the reconstructions, statistical split-sample validation (SSV) experiments were performed within the calibration period. Furthermore, the reconstructions were compared w...

A New Look at Radiosonde Data prior to 1958

Historical radiosonde data are known to suffer from inhomogeneities. The first radiosonde intercomparison was made at Payerne, Switzerland, in 1954, and a major international effort to standardize the network, including launch times, was made for the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in 1957–58. Data from before this period, in some cases extending back as far as 1934, have been viewed with even more suspicion than recent data. These early data are scattered among numerous archives with a variety of station identifier schemes and quality-control procedures, and some of the data have only recently been digitized from paper records. Here, the first systematic compilation of pre-IGY data is made, and a novel quality-assessment technique is applied, which reveals that much of the early data have uncorrected radiation and lag errors, especially in the former Soviet Union. Incorrect geopotential height units and problematic time stamps were also found. The authors propose corrections and present corrected hemispheric fields that show large changes and improved internal consistency in height and temperature across Eurasia compared with uncorrected data. The corrections are important, especially as they have a clear spatial structure that interferes with the planetary wave structure. These corrected data are useful for climate studies and considerably enhance the length and quality of the upper-air record but may not be suitable for trend analysis. Assimilation of the uncorrected data has led to a widespread warm bias in NCEP–NCAR reanalysis in the 1950s.

An Extended Pacific-North American Index from Upper-Air Historical Data Back to 1922

Abstract This paper presents a reconstruction of a Pacific–North America (PNA) index from historical upper-level data for the period 1922–47. The data have been compiled from a number of sources and cover the Pacific–North American sector relatively well over this time period. Temperature and geopotential height profiles from aircraft, kite, and radiosonde ascents back to 1922 have been digitized and validated. Wind speed and direction from pilot balloon data back to the early 1920s, provided by NCAR, have also been used. A statistical regression approach is used for the reconstruction and calibrated in the post-1948 period using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. Split-sample validation experiments were performed within the NCEP–NCAR period, and sensitivity experiments with different subsets of predictors were performed. Similar reconstructions and validation experiments were carried out using a 540-yr control run from the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). The reconstructed index series together...

The early twentieth century warm period in the European Arctic

The European Arctic experienced a pronounced warming around 1920 and a sustained warm period in the 1920s and 1930s. The causes of this climatic event are not fully known. However, understanding this event is considered important for assessing current and future climate change in the Arctic. Here we investigate the role of atmospheric circulation variability based on newly available historical upper-air data and statistical reconstructions of atmospheric circulation. The strongest warming at the ground from the 1910s to the 1920s and 1930s was found in wintertime. Historical upper-air data in this region from the 1930s show warm temperatures also in the lower troposphere. Reconstructed geopotential height fields suggest stronger than normal meridional transport of warm air into the European Arctic during the warm period compared to the preceding cold period. We propose that the 1920-1940 warm period can be subdivided into two periods with distinct circulation regimes: During the 1920s, warm, relatively clean air masses from the North Atlantic lead to a warming, while during the 1930s warm, rather polluted air masses from Western Europe played an important role. This is reflected in a sudden increase in sulphate concentrations in an ice core from Svalbard around 1930. The aerosols might have amplified the warming via changing cloud long wave emissivity, but this mechanism remains to be further studied. The circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic region during the early 20 th century warm period that are shown in this paper form an observation-based counterpart against which model studies can be compared.

A Focus on Climate During the Past 100 Years

The past 100 years are a key period for understanding climate variability and climate change as it marks the changeover from a climate system dominated by natural influences to one significantly dominated by anthropogenic activities. This volume is a compilation of contributions to a workshop dealing with different aspects of climate change, variability, and extremes during the past 100 years. The individual contributions cover a broad range of topics, from the re-evaluation of historical marine data to the effect of solar variability on the stratosphere. In this introductory chapter we provide an overview of the book in the context of recent research.

A Monthly Upper-Air Dataset for North America Back to 1922 from the Monthly Weather Review

Abstract Upper-air observations with kites, aircraft, and radiosondes were performed in the United States operationally since the 1890s. In this paper, the authors present a reevaluation of newly digitized monthly mean values from the Monthly Weather Review back to 1922. Data from 46 U.S. weather stations are presented with a focus on early kite and aircraft observations during the 1922–38 period. A quality assessment of the data, based on reconstructed reference series, is carried out and the quality of the monthly mean data is found to be sufficient for analysis of variability in upper-level circulation. Anomalies of upper-level temperatures from the reevaluated station data, together with surface fields, are shown for selected periods.

From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate: FROM PRODUCTS TO PROCESSES

In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are gener- ally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimu- lated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.