Travis Warziniack

The Effects of Water Scarcity and Natural Resources on Refugee Migration

We test the effect of water and natural resources on refugee migration. We show that water abundance decreases the number of refugees migrating out of a country and increases the number of refugees migrating into a county, all else equal. A large resource sector increases the likelihood of out-migration and decreases the likelihood of in-migration, giving support to a resource–conflict link. Opportunities in the resource sector lead to pooling of migrants into resource-dependent countries that are not at war. Expected migration is highest when the destination country has abundant water and a small resource sector. Expected migration is lowest when the source country has abundant water and a large resource sector. Characteristics of the destination country have larger impacts than characteristics of the source country, suggesting decisions are more about what the destination country has to offer than what the source country lacks.

Living with wildfire in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado

Over the past 50 years, Colorado has experienced an increase in the number and size of wildfires on its public and private lands. Nationwide, expenditures on wildfire suppression have increased for decades and now are measured in the billions of tax dollars. Current trends in climate changes, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI), which means more development within areas of heightened wildfire potential, all suggest that continued increases in the costs of wildfires are likely.

Implications for U.S. Trade and Nonindigenous Species Risk Resulting from Increased Economic Integration of the Asia-Pacific Region

ABSTRACT This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade partners. The index is based on risk of introduction, determined by changes in trade, and risk of establishment, given by terrestrial and marine climate similarities between countries. The results indicate that Japan may be the riskiest trade partner for the United States in the Asia-Pacific region from a nonindigenous species perspective. This is driven by large expected changes in trade and high environmental similarity between the two countries. This research provides the basis of a risk assessment prediction system to examine the effects of changes in trade on nonindigenous species risk, an important, novel contribution to the trade policy literature.

Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in the Northern Rockies

Ecosystem services are increasingly valued on federal lands, beyond just their economic value. Climate change effects will vary greatly within different subregions of the Northern Rockies, with some ecosystem services being affected in the short term and others in the long term. Of the many ecosystem services provided in the Northern Rockies, eight are considered here, including annual water yield, water quality, wood products, minerals and mineral extraction, forage for livestock, viewsheds and air quality, regulation of soil erosion, and carbon sequestration.

Living with wildfire in Delta County, Colorado: cross-community comparisons

This research note summarizes two linked datasets for four WUI communities in Delta County, Colorado. These data include a general population survey of residents in the community and an assessment of the physical characteristics of all residential properties in the community. This report summarizes the study design and focuses on the extent to which collected data vary across the four communities. It also provides information regarding knowledge, concern, and activities related to wildfire and wildfire risk mitigation among residents of each of the four communities, as well as the results of the corresponding assessment performed by a wildfire specialist for those same properties. The main finding of this study is that, despite the four communities being in close proximity of each other and all belonging to the same county in western Colorado, many measured variables vary significantly across communities. What variables did or did not vary across communities is complex and does not follow easy generalizations, suggesting the importance of specific, community-level context when researching or trying to influence perspectives on wildfire risk and wildfire risk mitigation actions. The information provided here may be useful to practitioners tasked with understanding and influencing the relationship of WUI residents with wildfire risk and to policymakers who must make decisions about wildfire suppression and risk mitigation.