Trevor Duke

Reduction of paediatric in-patient cardiac arrest and death with a medical emergency team: preliminary results

Aims: To determine the impact of a paediatric medical emergency team (MET) on cardiac arrest, mortality, and unplanned admission to intensive care in a paediatric tertiary care hospital. Methods: Comparison of the retrospective incidence of cardiac arrest and death during 41 months before introduction of a MET service with the prospective incidence of these events during 12 months after its introduction. Comparison of transgression of MET call criteria in patients who arrested and died before and after introduction of MET. Results: Cardiac arrest decreased from 20 among 104 780 admissions (0.19/1000) to 4 among 35 892 admissions (0.11/1000) (risk ratio 1.71, 95% CI 0.59 to 5.01), while death decreased from 13 (0.12/1000) to 2 (0.06/1000) during these periods (risk ratio 2.22, 95% CI 0.50 to 9.87). Unplanned admissions to intensive care increased from 20 (SD 6) to 24 (SD 9) per month. The incidence of transgression of MET call criteria in patients who arrested decreased from 17 to 0 (risk difference 0.16/1000, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.24), and in those who died, decreased from 12 to 0 (risk difference 0.11/1000, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.18) after introduction of MET. Conclusions: Introduction of a medical emergency team service was coincident with a reduction of cardiac arrest and mortality and a slight increase in admissions to intensive care.

Measles: not just another viral exanthem.

Measles is the most frequent cause of vaccine-preventable childhood deaths. Infants younger than the recommended age for vaccination are susceptible to the disease, and in developing countries they have a high risk of complications and mortality. Vaccine coverage in excess of 95% interrupts endemic transmission of measles in many countries, but achievement of such coverage almost always requires coordinated supplementary mass vaccination campaigns. There are substantial health gains if countries improve measles vaccine coverage, irrespective of whether or not high coverage is achieved; these gains include much lower measles complication and case fatality rates, long-term interepidemic duration, and possibly non-specific improvements in survival of children. Investigation into the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for measles control, including mass campaigns, two-dose schedules, and young-infant doses, would help countries to formulate control policies appropriate to their setting. Pneumonia is the most common fatal complication associated with measles, and at least 50% of measles-related pneumonias are due to bacterial superinfection. WHO has developed standard case management programmes for measles, but there are several unresolved clinical issues, including optimum indications for antibiotic treatment, the importance of intravenous immunoglobulin, the role of viral coinfection, and the risk of tuberculosis after measles. The priority in worldwide efforts to control measles is to lend support to poor countries, helping them to increase vaccine coverage and sustain improvements to vaccination infrastructure, and to address technical issues with respect to optimum vaccination schedules. Measles represents a specific challenge, whereby partnerships between high-income and developing nations would reduce child mortality in developing countries; such partnerships are not without incentive for high-income countries, since without them imported measles cannot be prevented.

Improved oxygen systems for childhood pneumonia: a multihospital effectiveness study in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND In rural hospitals of developing countries, oxygen supplies are poor and detection of hypoxaemia is difficult. Oxygen concentrators and pulse oximeters might help to manage the disease; however, use of such technology in developing countries needs comprehensive assessment. We studied the effect of an improved oxygen system on death rate in children with pneumonia in Papua New Guinea. METHODS We installed an improved oxygen system in five hospitals in Papua New Guinea, and assessed its use in more than 11 000 children with pneumonia (2001-07) and compared case-fatality rates. Admissions between January, 2001, and December, 2004, formed the pre-intervention group, and those between July, 2005, and October, 2007, formed the post-intervention group. Oxygen concentrators and pulse oximeters were introduced in the five hospitals, and a protocol for detection of hypoxaemia and clinical use of oxygen was supplied. All children admitted had their oxygen saturation measured; if it was less than 90%, oxygen was delivered via nasal prongs at a starting flow rate of 0.5-1 L/min. We recorded all costs associated with the establishment and maintenance of this system. The study was approved by the Medical Research Advisory Committee of Papua New Guinea, number MRAC 04.02. FINDINGS Before the use of this system, 356 of 7161 children admitted in the five hospitals for pneumonia died (case-fatality rate 4.97% [95% CI 4.5-5.5]), whereas 133 of 4130 children died in the 27 months after the introduction of the system (3.22% [2.7-3.8]). After the improved system was introduced, the risk of death for a child with pneumonia was 35% lower than was that before the project began (risk ratio 0.65 [0.52-0.78], p<0.0001). Mortality rates varied between hospitals. The estimated costs of this system were US

Early markers of major adverse events in children after cardiac operations

51 per patient treated, US

Pneumonia in severely malnourished children in developing countries - mortality risk, aetiology and validity of WHO clinical signs: a systematic review

1673 per life saved, and US

Intravenous fluids for seriously ill children: time to reconsider

50 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. INTERPRETATION Pulse oximetry and oxygen concentrators can alleviate oxygen shortages, reduce mortality, and improve quality of care for children with pneumonia in developing countries. The cost-effectiveness of this system compared favourably with that of other public-health interventions. FUNDING The Papua New Guinea National Department of Health; WHO, Papua New Guinea and Western Pacific Regional Office; AirSep corporation, Buffalo, NY, USA; the Ross Trust, VIC, Australia; AusAID; Jacques Gostelli, Switzerland; and a grant from the University of Melbourne.

Predictors of mortality and multiple organ failure in children with sepsis

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to determine the physiologic variables that predict major adverse events in children in the intensive care unit after cardiac operations. METHODS A cohort observational study was conducted. At the time of admission to the intensive care unit and 4, 8, 12, and 24 hours later the following variables were recorded: mean arterial pressure, heart rate, cardiac index, oxygen delivery, mixed venous oxygen saturation, base deficit, blood lactate, gastric intramucosal pH, carbon dioxide difference (the difference between arterial carbon dioxide tension and gastric intraluminal carbon dioxide tension), and toe-core temperature gradient. Major adverse events were prospectively identified as cardiac arrest, need for emergency chest opening, development of multiple organ failure, and death. RESULTS Ninety children were included in the study; 12 had major adverse events and there were 4 deaths. Blood lactate level, mean arterial pressure, and duration of cardiopulmonary bypass were the only significant, independent predictors of major adverse events when measured at the time of admission to the intensive care unit. The odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) for major adverse events if a lactate level was greater than 4.5 mmol/L was 5.1 (1.2 to 21.1), for admission hypotension 2.3 (0.5 to 9.8), and for a cardiopulmonary bypass time greater than 150 minutes 13.7 (3.3 to 57.2). Four hours after admission lactate and carbon dioxide difference, and 8 hours after admission lactate and base deficit, were independently significant predictors. The odds ratios for major adverse events if the blood lactate level was greater than 4 mmol/L at 4 and 8 hours were 8.3 (1.8 to 38.4) and 9.3 (1.9 to 44.3), respectively. At no time in the first 24 hours were cardiac output, oxygen delivery, mixed venous oxygen saturation, toe-core temperature gradient, or heart rate significant predictors of major adverse events. CONCLUSIONS In the context of our current treatment strategies, the duration of cardiopulmonary bypass and blood lactate level, measured in the early postoperative period, were the best predictors of impending major adverse events.

The effect of case management on childhood pneumonia mortality in developing countries

Objectives  To quantify the degree by which moderate and severe degrees of malnutrition increase the mortality risk in pneumonia, to identify potential differences in the aetiology of pneumonia between children with and without severe malnutrition, and to evaluate the validity of WHO‐recommended clinical signs (age‐specific fast breathing and chest wall indrawing) for the diagnosis of pneumonia in severely malnourished children.

The prevalence of hypoxaemia among ill children in developing countries: a systematic review.

Intravenous (iv) fluids are used for many sick and injured children. Such fluids generally used are 0·18% or 0·2% saline with 5% dextrose. These fluids are often given at maintenance rates—100 mL/kg for the first 10 kg of bodyweight, 50 mlL/kg for the next 10 kg, and 20 mL/kg for bodyweight exceeding 20 kg. 1 Some standard paediatric texts caution the need to modify maintenance requirements according to disease states, but this specification has been lost in some recent empirical recommendations: for example, WHO now suggests full maintenance fluids for the routine treatment of bacterial meningitis (albeit with a caution about cerebral oedema), with an emphasis on glucose but not sodium content. 2

Neonatal pneumonia in developing countries

Objectives: To assess the markers of perfusion which best discriminate survivors from non-survivors of childhood sepsis and to compare the information derived from gastric tonometry with conventionally measured haemodynamic and laboratory parameters. Design: Prospective clinical study of children with sepsis syndrome or septic shock. Setting: Paediatric intensive care unit in a tertiary referral centre. Patients: 31 children with sepsis syndrome or septic shock. Interventions: A tonometer was passed into the stomach via the orogastric route. Measurements and main results: The following data were recorded at admission, 12, 24 and 48 h: heart rate, mean arterial pressure, arterial pH, base deficit, arterial lactate, gastric intramucosal pH (pHi) and DCO2 (intramucosal carbon dioxide tension minus arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide). The principal outcome measure was survival. The secondary outcome measure was the number of organ systems failing at 48 h after admission. There were 10 deaths and 21 survivors. No variable discriminated survival from death at presentation. Blood lactate level was the earliest discriminator of survival. Using univariate logistic regression, lactate discriminated survivors from those who died at 12 and 24 h after admission, but not at 48 h (p = 0.049, 0.044 and 0.062, respectively). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for lactate was 0.81, 0.88 and 0.89 at 12, 24 and 48 h, respectively. At 12 h after admission, a blood lactate level > 3 mmol/l had a positive predictive value for death of 56 % and a lactate level of 3 mmol/l or less had a positive predictive value for survival of 84 %. At 24 h a lactate level > 3 mmol/l had a positive predictive value for death of 71 % and a level of 3 mmol/l or less had a positive predictive value for survival of 86 %. No other variable identified non-survivors from survivors at 12 h. Gastric tonometry could only be done on 19 of the 31 children, of whom 8 died and 11 survived. In these 19 children, DCO2 measured at 24 h, but not at 12 or 48 h, distinguished those who died from those who survived (p = 0.045 and p = 0.20, respectively). The area under the ROC curve for DCO2 measured at 24 h as a predictor of survival was 0.71. Neither the absolute value of pHi nor the trend of change in pHi at any time in the first 48 h identified survivors in this series. The mean arterial pressure distinguished survivors from non-survivors at 24 and 48 h (area under ROC curve = 0.80 and 0.78, respectively). The base deficit and heart rate did not identify non-survivors from survivors at any time in the first 48 h. Conclusions: Blood lactate level was the earliest predictor of outcome in children with sepsis. In this group of patients, gastric tonometry added little to the clinical information that could be derived more simply by other means.