Tun Myint

A Portfolio Approach to Analyzing Complex Human-Environment Interactions: Institutions and Land Change

The challenge confronting those seeking to understand the institutional dimensions of global environmental change and patterns of land-use and land-cover change is to find effective methods for analyzing the dynamics of socio-ecological systems. Such systems exhibit a number of characteristics that pose problems for the most commonly used statistical techniques and may require additional and innovative analytic tools. This article explores options available to researchers working in this field and recommends a strategy for achieving scientific progress. Statistical procedures developed in other fields of study are often helpful in addressing challenges arising in research into global change. Accordingly, we start with an assessment of some of the enhanced statistical techniques that are available for the study of socio-ecological systems. By themselves, however, even the most advanced statistical models cannot solve all the problems that arise in efforts to explain institutional effectiveness and patterns of land-use and land-cover change. We therefore proceed to an exploration of additional analytic techniques, including configurational comparisons and meta-analyses; case studies, counterfactuals, and narratives; and systems analysis and simulations. Our goal is to create a portfolio of complementary methods or, in other words, a tool kit for understanding complex human-environment interactions. When the results obtained through the use of two or more techniques converge, confidence in the robustness of key findings rises. Contradictory results, on the other hand, signal a need for additional analysis.

Adaptability of International River Basin Regimes: Linkage Problems in the Rhine

The literature addressing international river basin regimes has largely focused on either local institutional arrangements or international institutional arrangements. The focus has been primarily on the linkages between the national layer and the international layer but not between local and international layer. This is consistent with the dominant international relations theories that focus on inter-state relations. Consequently, there is almost no systematic study of how actors at the local layer link to international layer and vice versa. In the Rhine River Basins, both practitioners and scholars have assessed the crucial role of local actors and industries in governance of international river basin regime. However, these assessments fall short of addressing how local actors are crucial and how they are linked to the international layer. This paper investigates how institutional drivers at the local layers link to the international layer and how the linkages characterize vulnerability and adaptability of international river basin regimes.