Tuula Nuutinen

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70° N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.

Integrating scenic and recreational amenities into numerical forest planning.

This study proposes an operational way of computing the amenity value of a forest area that consists of several stands or compartments. Such a method produces an amenity index suitable for numerical optimization. With this method of computation, amenity is divided into scenic and recreation values. Scenic value of the forest depends on the visibility, area, and scenic beauty score of different compartments. Recreation value of the forest is a weighted mean of variety and the area-weighted mean recreation value of compartments. Variety is described by the total length of boundaries between distinctly different compartments. Recreation value of a compartment is the product of accessibility and recreation score of the compartment. Recreation and scenic beauty scores are computed from stand characteristics using empirical models. The study describes a complete planning system that uses the developed amenity index as a decision criterion, and relates a case study to illustrate the effect of amenity objective on choice of treatments for compartments.

Site‐specific constraints in integrated forest planning

This study describes an approach for incorporating several forest products and functions into a mathematical programming for integrated forest planning. The method is based on the combined use of a geographic information system and a planning system that generates several treatment schedules for management units and selects optimal schedule combinations using linear programming. The geographic information system is used to create management zones based on the production potential of the area, the preferences of the decision‐maker and the external requirements set by society. In linear programming, constraints are specified to domains corresponding to zones. A case study is presented to illustrate the derivation of opportunity cost of multiple use.

Litterfall in relation to volume growth of trees: Analysis based on literature

Abstract For the calculation of carbon balance, estimates of litterfall are needed as a measure of carbon accumulation into soil. Estimation of litterfall should reflect the structural and functional properties of stands that are affected by changes in growing conditions caused, for example, by management activities or climate change. In this context, possibilities taking into account this dynamic relationship between growing conditions and litterfall were analysed by correlating litterfall with growth of trees. As extensive data for modelling this relationship are difficult to obtain, existing literature were analysed to formulate a general model applicable to forestry scenario modelling in practical forest planning under varying conditions. Empirical results from the literature were analysed to ascertain how litterfall is related to the structural and functional properties of tree stands, including the volume growth of stemwood. Further analysis related tree-level growth to litterfall for forest scenario modelling purposes. Data from the literature showed a clear relationship between forest growth and litterfall, and a tree-level linear model was estimated.

Valtakunnan metsien 9. inventointiin perustuvat hakkuumahdollisuusarviot vuosille 2003–2032 Lapin metsäkeskuksen alueella

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää Lapin metsäkeskuksen alueen hakkuumahdollisuudet vuosille 2003–2032. Hakkuulaskelmat tehtiin MELA-ohjelmistolla. Laskelmissa käytettiin valtakunnan metsien 9. inventoinnin (VMI9) koealaja puutiedoista muodostettua laskelma-aineistoa. Kymmenvuotiskaudella 2003–2012 metsänkäsittelysuositusten perusteella hakkuukypsää ja hakkuukypsäksi tulevaa puuta riittäisi hakattavaksi 5,9 miljoonaa kuutiometriä vuodessa eli 1,6-kertaisesti vuosina 1998–2002 keskimäärin toteutuneisiin hakkuisiin verrattuna (noin 3,8 miljoonaa kuutiometriä käyttöpuuta vuodessa). Vaikka välittömät hakkuumahdollisuudet hyödynnettäisiin kokonaan, puuvaranto puuntuotantoon käytettävissä olevalla metsäja kitumaalla suurenisi lähivuosikymmeninä ja hakkuumahdollisuudet säilyisivät 5,5 miljoonan kuutiometrin tasolla vuodessa. Suurimman jatkuvasti hakattavissa olevan käyttöpuumäärän arvio on ensimmäisellä kymmenvuotiskaudella 5,1 miljoonaa kuutiometriä vuodessa ja se kohoaa 5,4 miljoonaan kuutiometriin vuodessa 30 vuoden tarkastelujakson aikana. Tarkastelujakson jälkeen kestävien hakkuumahdollisuuksien ennakoidaan nousevan yli 6,0 miljoonaan kuutiometriin vuodessa. Metsäja kitumaasta on tiukasti suojeltu noin 20 prosenttia ja rajoitetussa käytössä on noin 23 prosenttia. Suojelu ja käytönrajoitukset supistivat ensimmäisen kymmenvuotiskauden välittömiä hakkuumahdollisuuksia 3,2 miljoonaa kuutiometriä ja kestäviä hakkuumahdollisuuksia 2,0 miljoonaa kuutiometriä vuodessa. Esitetyt hakkuumahdollisuusarviot eivät ole puun tarjonnan eivätkä todennäköisesti toteutuvan tulevaisuuden ennusteita. Käytännössä puunostajat ja metsänomistajat ratkaisevat, miten metsiä hakataan ja hoidetaan.

Request-driven generation of calculation chains for adaptive forest analysis

Abstract The aim of this study was to introduce a new method – request-driven generation of calculation (data and model) chains – to facilitate the automatic adaptation of analysis tools to varying output demands or input supply, and consequently reducing programming efforts. The method was implemented in a prototype for a calculation algorithm based on meta-information. To demonstrate the potential of the method, the algorithm was integrated with a model library and xml-based end-user interfaces for a case study where several calculation chains were generated for the comparison of different forest inventory systems. In our application, the autonomic analysis tool automatically adapted itself to varying output requests, input data sources, and contents of the model library. To summarize, the algorithm supports sharing and re-using of models and existing analysis tools. As a stand-alone calculation system, the algorithm can be utilized as a research and development tool, e.g. when testing and comparing models, calculation chains and cost-effective combinations of models, and data for practical forest inventory and planning systems. As an add-on or embedded component, the algorithm makes it easy to enhance data with varying models, or to adapt the existing analysis tools to locally accessible models or specific user requirements.