Tyler D. Tunney

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming.

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050–2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions

Changing temperature can substantially shift ecological communities by altering the strength and stability of trophic interactions. Because many ecological rates are constrained by temperature, new approaches are required to understand how simultaneous changes in multiple rates alter the relative performance of species and their trophic interactions. We develop an energetic approach to identify the relationship between biomass fluxes and standing biomass across trophic levels. Our approach links ecological rates and trophic dynamics to measure temperature-dependent changes to the strength of trophic interactions and determine how these changes alter food web stability. It accomplishes this by using biomass as a common energetic currency and isolating three temperature-dependent processes that are common to all consumer-resource interactions: biomass accumulation of the resource, resource consumption and consumer mortality. Using this framework, we clarify when and how temperature alters consumer to resource biomass ratios, equilibrium resilience, consumer variability, extinction risk and transient vs. equilibrium dynamics. Finally, we characterise key asymmetries in species responses to temperature that produce these distinct dynamic behaviours and identify when they are likely to emerge. Overall, our framework provides a mechanistic and more unified understanding of the temperature dependence of trophic dynamics in terms of ecological rates, biomass ratios and stability.

Food web expansion and contraction in response to changing environmental conditions

Macroscopic ecosystem properties, such as major material pathways and community biomass structure, underlie the ecosystem services on which humans rely. While ecologists have long sought to identify the determinants of the trophic height of food webs (food chain length), it is somewhat surprising how little research effort is invested in understanding changes among other food web properties across environmental conditions. Here we theoretically and empirically show how a suite of fundamental macroscopic food web structures respond, in concert, to changes in habitat accessibility using post-glacial lakes as model ecosystems. We argue that as resource accessibility increases in coupled food webs, food chain length contracts (that is, reduced predator trophic position), habitat coupling expands (that is, increasingly coupled macrohabitats) and biomass pyramid structure becomes more top heavy. Our results further support an emerging theoretical view of flexible food webs that provides a foundation for generally understanding ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions.

The Body Size Dependence of Trophic Cascades

Trophic cascades are indirect positive effects of predators on resources via control of intermediate consumers. Larger-bodied predators appear to induce stronger trophic cascades (a greater rebound of resource density toward carrying capacity), but how this happens is unknown because we lack a clear depiction of how the strength of trophic cascades is determined. Using consumer resource models, we first show that the strength of a trophic cascade has an upper limit set by the interaction strength between the basal trophic group and its consumer and that this limit is approached as the interaction strength between the consumer and its predator increases. We then express the strength of a trophic cascade explicitly in terms of predator body size and use two independent parameter sets to calculate how the strength of a trophic cascade depends on predator size. Both parameter sets predict a positive effect of predator size on the strength of a trophic cascade, driven mostly by the body size dependence of the interaction strength between the first two trophic levels. Our results support previous empirical findings and suggest that the loss of larger predators will have greater consequences on trophic control and biomass structure in food webs than the loss of smaller predators.

The adaptive capacity of lake food webs: from individuals to ecosystems

Aquatic ecosystems support size structured food webs, wherein predator-prey body sizes span orders of magnitude. As such, these food webs are replete with extremely generalized feeding strategies, especially among the larger bodied, higher trophic position taxa. The movement scale of aquatic organisms also generally increases with body size and trophic position. Together, these body size, mobility, and foraging relationships suggest that organisms lower in the food web generate relatively distinct energetic pathways by feeding over smaller spatial areas. Concurrently, the potential capacity for generalist foraging and spatial coupling of these pathways often increases, on average, moving up the food web toward higher trophic levels. We argue that these attributes make for a food web architecture that is inherently ‘adaptive’ in its response to environmental conditions. This is because variation in lower trophic level dynamics is dampened by the capacity of predators to flexibly alter their foraging behavior. We argue that empirical, theoretical, and applied research needs to embrace this inherently adaptive architecture if we are to understand the relationship between structure and function in the face of ongoing environmental change. Toward this goal, we discuss empirical patterns in the structure of lake food webs to suggest that ecosystems change consistently, from individual traits to the structure of whole food webs, under changing environmental conditions. We then explore an empirical example to reveal that explicitly unfolding the mechanisms that drive these adaptive responses offers insight into how human-driven impacts, such as climate change, invasive species, and fisheries harvest, ought to influence ecosystem structure and function (e.g., stability, secondary productivity, maintenance of major energy pathways). We end by arguing that such a directed food web research program promises a powerful across-scale framework for more effective ecosystem monitoring and management.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming

Abstract Earths surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature‐induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Food Web Theory and Ecological Restoration

No species exists in a vacuum. Rather, species are embedded within a network of predator-prey interactions in what Charles Darwin referred to as an “entangled bank” (Darwin 1859) and is now known more generally as a food web. In its most fundamental form, a food web provides insight into the feeding relationships in a system. More broadly, food webs represent a way of envisioning ecological systems that considers trophic (consumer-resource) interactions among species or groups of similar species (trophic guilds or trophic levels). Food web ecology is a constantly evolving subdiscipline of ecology, and it is important to appreciate the diversity of approaches to the study of food webs (Schoener 1989; Polis and Winemiller 1996; Montoya et al. 2006).

Blinded by the light? Nearshore energy pathway coupling and relative predator biomass increase with reduced water transparency across lakes

Habitat coupling is a concept that refers to consumer integration of resources derived from different habitats. This coupling unites fundamental food web pathways (e.g., cross-habitat trophic linkages) that mediate key ecological processes such as biomass flows, nutrient cycling, and stability. We consider the influence of water transparency, an important environmental driver in aquatic ecosystems, on habitat coupling by a light-sensitive predator, walleye (Sander vitreus), and its prey in 33 Canadian lakes. Our large-scale, across-lake study shows that the contribution of nearshore carbon (δ13C) relative to offshore carbon (δ13C) to walleye is higher in less transparent lakes. To a lesser degree, the contribution of nearshore carbon increased with a greater proportion of prey in nearshore compared to offshore habitats. Interestingly, water transparency and habitat coupling predict among-lake variation in walleye relative biomass. These findings support the idea that predator responses to changing conditions (e.g., water transparency) can fundamentally alter carbon pathways, and predator biomass, in aquatic ecosystems. Identifying environmental factors that influence habitat coupling is an important step toward understanding spatial food web structure in a changing world.

The consistency of a species’ response to press perturbations with high food web uncertainty

Predicting species responses to perturbations is a fundamental challenge in ecology. Decision makers must often identify management perturbations that are the most likely to deliver a desirable management outcome despite incomplete information on the pattern and strength of food web links. Motivated by a current fishery decline in inland lakes of the Midwestern United States, we evaluate consistency of the responses of a target species (walleye [Sander vitreus]) to press perturbations. We represented food web uncertainty with 193 plausible topological models and applied four perturbations to each one. Frequently the direction of the focal predator response to the same perturbation is not consistent across food web topologies. Simultaneous application of management perturbations led to less consistent outcomes compared to the best single perturbation. However, direct manipulation of the adult focal predator produced a desirable outcome in 77% of 193 plausible topologies. Identifying perturbations that produce consistent outcomes in the face of food web uncertainty can have important implications for natural resource conservation and management efforts.

Nature rewires in a changing world

Climate change is asymmetrically altering environmental conditions in space, from local to global scales, creating novel heterogeneity. Here, we argue that this novel heterogeneity will drive mobile generalist consumer species to rapidly respond through their behavior in ways that broadly and predictably reorganize—or rewire—food webs. We use existing theory and data from diverse ecosystems to show that the rapid behavioral responses of generalists to climate change rewire food webs in two critical ways. Firstly, mobile generalist species are redistributing into systems where they were previously absent and foraging on new prey, resulting in topological rewiring—a change in the patterning of food webs due to the addition or loss of connections. Secondly, mobile generalist species, which navigate between habitats and ecosystems to forage, will shift their relative use of differentially altered habitats and ecosystems, causing interaction strength rewiring—changes rerouting energy and carbon flows through existing food web connections that alter the food web’s interaction strengths. We then show that many species with shared traits can exhibit unified aggregate behavioral responses to climate change, which may allow us to understand the rewiring of whole food webs. We end by arguing that generalists’ responses present a powerful and underutilized approach to understand and predict the consequences of climate change and may serve as muchneeded early warning signals for monitoring the looming impacts of global climate change on entire ecosystems.