Ula Nur
University of London
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The Lancet | 2011
Michel P. Coleman; David Forman; H. Bryant; John Butler; Bernard Rachet; Camille Maringe; Ula Nur; Elizabeth Tracey; Michael Coory; Juanita Hatcher; Colleen E. McGahan; D. Turner; L. Marrett; Ml Gjerstorff; Tom Børge Johannesen; Jan Adolfsson; Mats Lambe; G Lawrence; David Meechan; Eva Morris; Richard Middleton; John Steward; Michael Richards
Summary Background Cancer survival is a key measure of the effectiveness of health-care systems. Persistent regional and international differences in survival represent many avoidable deaths. Differences in survival have prompted or guided cancer control strategies. This is the first study in a programme to investigate international survival disparities, with the aim of informing health policy to raise standards and reduce inequalities in survival. Methods Data from population-based cancer registries in 12 jurisdictions in six countries were provided for 2·4 million adults diagnosed with primary colorectal, lung, breast (women), or ovarian cancer during 1995–2007, with follow-up to Dec 31, 2007. Data quality control and analyses were done centrally with a common protocol, overseen by external experts. We estimated 1-year and 5-year relative survival, constructing 252 complete life tables to control for background mortality by age, sex, and calendar year. We report age-specific and age-standardised relative survival at 1 and 5 years, and 5-year survival conditional on survival to the first anniversary of diagnosis. We also examined incidence and mortality trends during 1985–2005. Findings Relative survival improved during 1995–2007 for all four cancers in all jurisdictions. Survival was persistently higher in Australia, Canada, and Sweden, intermediate in Norway, and lower in Denmark, England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, particularly in the first year after diagnosis and for patients aged 65 years and older. International differences narrowed at all ages for breast cancer, from about 9% to 5% at 1 year and from about 14% to 8% at 5 years, but less or not at all for the other cancers. For colorectal cancer, the international range narrowed only for patients aged 65 years and older, by 2–6% at 1 year and by 2–3% at 5 years. Interpretation Up-to-date survival trends show increases but persistent differences between countries. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality are broadly consistent with these trends in survival. Data quality and changes in classification are not likely explanations. The patterns are consistent with later diagnosis or differences in treatment, particularly in Denmark and the UK, and in patients aged 65 years and older. Funding Department of Health, England; and Cancer Research UK.
International Journal of Social Psychiatry | 2005
Peter Tyrer; Ula Nur; M. H. Crawford; Saffron Karlsen; Claire Mclean; Bharti Rao; Tony Johnson
Background: The Social Functioning Questionnaire (SFQ), an eight-item selfreport scale (score range 0–24), was developed from the Social Functioning Schedule (SFS), a semi-structured interview which has been used primarily with non-psychotic patients and has good test-retest and inter-rater reliability as well as construct validity. The SFQ was developed following the need for a quick assessment of perceived social function. Aims: To give further details of old and new data sets from studies involving over 4000 subjects assessed with the SFQ illustrating its epidemiological and clinical associations. Method: New data were analysed from a national epidemiological study, a comparison of key-worker and subject versions of the SFQ, and reanalysis of data from three earlier clinical studies, of psychiatric emergencies, general practice psychiatric patients and those with recurrent psychotic illnesses. These data were examined further to determine their range, their relationship to other clinical measures, and change over time in clinical trials. Results: The population mean score in 4164 subjects was 4.6 and the data from all studies suggested that a score of 10 or more indicated poor social functioning. Those presenting as psychiatric emergencies had the poorest social function (mean 11.4) and psychiatric patients from general practice the best function (mean 7.7) of the clinical populations. The eight item scores had a normal distribution in psychiatric populations and a skewed one in a normal population; scores were relatively stable over the short (weeks) and long-term (months), and were high in the presence of acute mental health disturbance and personality disorder, giving support to the validity of the scale. The results from a UK sample of a randomly selected population specifically weighted for ethnic minorities showed similar social function across groups.
Lancet Oncology | 2009
Bernard Rachet; Camille Maringe; Ula Nur; Manuela Quaresma; Anjali Shah; Laura M. Woods; Libby Ellis; Sarah Walters; David Forman; John Steward; Michel P. Coleman
BACKGROUND The National Health Service (NHS) cancer plan for England was published in 2000, with the aim of improving the survival of patients with cancer. By contrast, a formal cancer strategy was not implemented in Wales until late 2006. National data on cancer patient survival in England and Wales up to 2007 thus offer the opportunity for a first formal assessment of the cancer plan in England, by comparing survival trends in England with those in Wales before, during, and after the implementation of the plan. METHODS We analysed population-based survival in 2.2 million adults diagnosed with one of 21 common cancers in England and Wales during 1996-2006 and followed up to Dec 31, 2007. We defined three calendar periods: 1996-2000 (before the cancer plan), 2001-03 (initialisation), and 2004-06 (implementation). We estimated year-on-year trends in 1-year relative survival for patients diagnosed during each period, and changes in those trends between successive periods in England and separately in Wales. Changes between successive periods in mean survival up to 5 years after diagnosis were analysed by country and by government office region of England. Life tables for single year of age, sex, calendar year, deprivation category, and government office region were used to control for background mortality in all analyses. FINDINGS 1-year survival in England and Wales improved for most cancers in men and women diagnosed during 1996-2006 and followed until 2007, although not all trends were significant. Annual trends were generally higher in Wales than in England during 1996-2000 and 2001-03, but higher in England than in Wales during 2004-06. 1-year survival for patients diagnosed in 2006 was over 60% for 12 of 17 cancers in men and 13 of 18 cancers in women. Differences in 3-year survival trends between England and Wales were less marked than the differences in 1-year survival. North-South differences in survival trends for the four most common cancers were not striking, but the North West region and Wales showed the smallest improvements during 2001-03 and 2004-06. INTERPRETATION The findings indicate slightly faster improvement in 1-year survival in England than in Wales during 2004-06, whereas the opposite was true during 2001-03. This reversal of survival trends in 2001-03 and 2004-06 between England and Wales is much less obvious for 3-year survival. These different patterns of survival suggest some beneficial effect of the NHS cancer plan for England, although the data do not so far provide a definitive assessment of the effectiveness of the plan.
Schizophrenia Research | 2008
Douglas Turkington; Tom Sensky; Jan Scott; Thomas R. E. Barnes; Ula Nur; Ronald Siddle; Katherine Hammond; Neshika Samarasekara; David Kingdon
Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials support the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in the treatment of symptoms of schizophrenia refractory to antipsychotic medication. This article addresses the issue of medium term durability. A five-year follow-up was undertaken of a sample of 90 subjects who participated in a randomized controlled trial of CBT and befriending (BF). Patients received routine care throughout the trial and the follow-up period. Intention to treat multivariate analysis was performed by an independent statistician following multiple imputation of missing data. Fifty-nine out of ninety patients were followed up at 5 years (CBT=31, BF=28). In comparison to BF and usual treatment, CBT showed evidence of a significantly greater and more durable effect on overall symptom severity (NNT=10.36, CI -10.21, 10.51) and level of negative symptoms (NNT=5.22, CI -5.06 -5.37). No difference was found between CBT and BF on either overall symptoms of schizophrenia or depression. The initial cost of an adjunctive course of CBT for individuals with medication refractory schizophrenia may be justified in light of symptomatic benefits that persist over the medium term.
British Journal of Cancer | 2010
Bernard Rachet; Libby Ellis; Camille Maringe; Thomas P. C. Chu; Ula Nur; Manuela Quaresma; Anjali Shah; Sarah Walters; Laura M. Woods; David Forman; Michel P. Coleman
Background:Socioeconomic inequalities in survival were observed for many cancers in England during 1981–1999. The NHS Cancer Plan (2000) aimed to improve survival and reduce these inequalities. This study examines trends in the deprivation gap in cancer survival after implementation of the Plan.Materials and method:We examined relative survival among adults diagnosed with 1 of 21 common cancers in England during 1996–2006, followed up to 31 December 2007. Three periods were defined: 1996–2000 (before the Cancer Plan), 2001–2003 (initialisation) and 2004–2006 (implementation). We estimated the difference in survival between the most deprived and most affluent groups (deprivation gap) at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis, and the change in the deprivation gap both within and between these periods.Results:Survival improved for most cancers, but inequalities in survival were still wide for many cancers in 2006. Only the deprivation gap in 1-year survival narrowed slightly over time. A majority of the socioeconomic disparities in survival occurred soon after a cancer diagnosis, regardless of the cancer prognosis.Conclusion:The recently observed reduction in the deprivation gap was minor and limited to 1-year survival, suggesting that, so far, the Cancer Plan has little effect on those inequalities. Our findings highlight that earlier diagnosis and rapid access to optimal treatment should be ensured for all socioeconomic groups.
British Journal of Psychiatry | 2008
Helen Seivewright; John Green; Paul M. Salkovskis; Barbara Barrett; Ula Nur; Peter Tyrer
BACKGROUND Little is known about the management of health anxiety and hypochondriasis in secondary care settings. AIMS To determine whether cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) along with a supplementary manual was effective in reducing symptoms and health consultations in patients with high health anxiety in a genitourinary medicine clinic. METHOD Patients with high health anxiety were randomly assigned to brief CBT and compared with a control group. RESULTS Greater improvement was seen in Health Anxiety Inventory (HAI) scores (primary outcome) in patients treated with CBT (n=23) than in the control group (n=26) (P=0.001). Similar but less marked differences were found for secondary outcomes of generalised anxiety, depression and social function, and there were fewer health service consultations. The CBT intervention resulted in improvements in outcomes alongside higher costs, with an incremental cost of pound 33 per unit reduction in HAI score. CONCLUSIONS Cognitive-behavioural therapy for health anxiety within a genitourinary medicine clinic is effective and suggests wider use of this intervention in medical settings.
Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology | 2009
Peter Tyrer; Sylvia Cooper; Deborah Rutter; Helen Seivewright; Conor Duggan; Tony Maden; Barbara Barrett; Eileen M. Joyce; Bharti Rao; Ula Nur; Domenic Cicchetti; Mike Crawford; Sarah Byford
Randomised controlled trials are difficult to carry out in high security prisons and very few have succeeded. We describe here a randomised controlled trial of early versus late assessment for the pilot phase of the new DSPD programme for dangerous and severe personality disorder, which assessed prisoners (n = 75) at baseline, then six months, and then one year after randomisation. The trial enjoyed 100% success in getting records and obtained useful qualitative data that helped to explain the findings, but the trial was compromised by repeated protocol violations on grounds that were seldom acknowledged openly but which we conclude were primarily due to ignorance of the purpose of such trials. This led to such contamination of the two arms of the trial that no clear conclusions could be drawn from the trial itself, except that relative costs showed expected differences. However, the trial also showed that the assessment programme was associated with better quality of life in terms of social relationships (p = .03), with an increase in aggression (p = .01), and with worse social functioning in those with less severe personality disorder (p < .01), with the qualitative data suggesting that frustration and unfulfilled expectations lay behind these findings. Suggestions are made about revisions to the assessment process and the changes necessary for successful trials to be mounted in the future.
British Journal of Cancer | 2008
Ula Nur; Bernard Rachet; Mahesh K. B. Parmar; M R Sydes; N Cooper; Côme Lepage; J M A Northover; R James; Michel P. Coleman
There is strong evidence that colorectal cancer survival differs between socioeconomic groups. We analysed data on 2481 patients diagnosed during 1989–1997 and recruited to a randomised controlled clinical trial (AXIS, ISRCTN32414363) of chemotherapy and radiotherapy for colorectal cancer. Crude and relative survival at 1 and 5 years was estimated in five categories of socioeconomic deprivation. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data on tumour stage. A multivariable fractional polynomial model was fitted to estimate the excess hazard of death in each deprivation category, adjusting for the confounding effects of age, stage, cancer site (colon, rectum) and sex, using generalised linear models. Relative survival in the trial patients was higher than in the general population of England and Wales. The socioeconomic gradient in survival was much smaller than that seen for colorectal cancer patients in the general population, both at 1 year −3.2% (95% CI −7.3 to 1.0%, P=0.14) and at 5 years −1.7% (95% CI −8.3 to 4.9%, P=0.61). Given equal treatment, colorectal cancer survival in England and Wales does not appear to depend on socioeconomic status, suggesting that the socioeconomic gradient in survival in the general population could well be due to health-care system factors.
Cancer Epidemiology | 2014
Ruoran Li; Louise Abela; Jonathan Moore; Laura M. Woods; Ula Nur; Bernard Rachet; Claudia Allemani; Michel P. Coleman
BACKGROUND Population-based cancer survival is an important measure of the overall effectiveness of cancer care in a population. Population-based cancer registries collect data that enable the estimation of cancer survival. To ensure accurate, consistent and comparable survival estimates, strict control of data quality is required before the survival analyses are carried out. In this paper, we present a basis for data quality control for cancer survival. METHODS We propose three distinct phases for the quality control. Firstly, each individual variable within a given record is examined to identify departures from the study protocol; secondly, each record is checked and excluded if it is ineligible or logically incoherent for analysis; lastly, the distributions of key characteristics in the whole dataset are examined for their plausibility. RESULTS Data for patients diagnosed with bladder cancer in England between 1991 and 2010 are used as an example to aid the interpretation of the differences in data quality. The effect of different aspects of data quality on survival estimates is discussed. CONCLUSIONS We recommend that the results of data quality procedures should be reported together with the findings from survival analysis, to facilitate their interpretation.
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health | 2015
Ula Nur; Manuela Quaresma; Bianca De Stavola; Michael Peake; Bernard Rachet
Background Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) comprises approximately 85% of all lung cancer cases, and surgery is the preferred treatment for patients. The National Health Service established Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) in 2002 to manage local health needs. We investigate whether PCTs with a lower uptake of surgical treatment are those with above-average mortality 1 year after diagnosis. The applied methods can be used to monitor the performance of any administrative bodies responsible for the management of patients with cancer. Methods All adults diagnosed with NSCLC lung cancer during 1998–2006 in England were identified. We fitted mixed effect logistic models to predict surgical treatment within 6 months after diagnosis, and mortality within 1 year of diagnosis. Results Around 10% of the NCSLC patients received curative surgery. Older deprived patients and those who did not receive surgery had much higher odds of death 1 year after being diagnosed with cancer. In total, 69% of the PCTs were below the lower control limit of surgery and have predicted random intercepts above the mean value of zero of the random effect for mortality, whereas 40% were above the upper control limit of mortality within 1 year. Conclusions Our main results suggest the presence of clear geographical variation in the use of surgical treatment of NSCLC and mortality. Mixed-effects models combined with the funnel plot approach were useful for assessing the performance of PCTs that were above average in mortality and below average in surgery.