Ulf Narloch

Decarbonizing development: three steps to a zero-carbon future

This report lays out three steps for a smooth transition to a zero-carbon future and provides data, examples and policy advice to help countries makes the shift. Overview Getting to zero net emissions and stabilizing climate change starts with planning for the long-term future and not stopping at short-term goals. It means getting prices right as part of a broad policy package that can trigger changes in both investments and behaviors, and it requires smoothing the transition for those most affected. A new World Bank report walks policymakers through those three steps with data, examples and policy advice to help put countries on a path to decarbonizing their development in a smooth and orderly way. The solutions exist, and they are affordable – if governments take action today, the report says.

Climate constraints on the carbon intensity of economic growth

Development and climate goals together constrain the carbon intensity of production. Using a simple and transparent model that represents committed CO2 emissions (future emissions expected to come from existing capital), we explore the carbon intensity of production related to new capital required for different temperature targets across several thousand scenarios. Future pathways consistent with the 2 °C target which allow for continued gross domestic product growth require early action to reduce carbon intensity of new production, and either (i) a short lifetime of energy and industry capital (e.g. early retrofit of coal power plants), or (ii) large negative emissions after 2050 (i.e. rapid development and dissemination of carbon capture and sequestration). To achieve the 2 °C target, half of the scenarios indicate a carbon intensity of new production between 33 and 73 g CO2/

Climate Change and Poverty -- an Analytical Framework

—much lower than the global average today, at 360 g CO2/

The varying income effects of weather variation: initial insights from rural Vietnam

. The average lifespan of energy capital (especially power plants), and industry capital, are critical because they commit emissions far into the future and reduce the budget for new capital emissions. Each year of lifetime added to existing, carbon intensive capital, decreases the carbon intensity of new production required to meet a 2 °C carbon budget by 1.0–1.5 g CO2/

Environmental Risks and Poverty: Analyzing Geo-Spatial and Household Data from Vietnam

, and each year of delaying the start of mitigation decreases the required CO2 intensity of new production by 20–50 g CO2/

Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

. Constraints on the carbon intensity of new production under a 3 °C target are considerably relaxed relative to the 2 °C target, but remain daunting in comparison to the carbon intensity of the global economy today.

Unraveling the effects of payments for ecosystem services on motivations for collective action

Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor peoples livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channels that determine household consumption and through which households may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets, productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whether and how these channels are affected by climate change and climate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability, and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable to poverty). It reviews the existing literature and offers three major conclusions. First, climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Second, climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns are carefully taken into account in their design and (ii) they are accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies. Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but it creates greater needs and more urgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact that climate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; the urgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunity given to us before climate impacts are likely to substantially increase.

What role for cooperation in conservation tenders? Paying farmer groups in the High Andes

To estimate the impact of weather on rural income changes over time, this study combines data from the panel subsample of the latest Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys 2010, 2012, and 2014 and gridded weather data from the Climate Research Unit. The analyses show: (i) crop cultivation, livestock management, forestry and fishing activities, and agricultural wages remain important income sources in rural Vietnam?especially for poorer households; (ii) rural communes are exposed to substantial inter- and intra-annual weather variation, as measured by annual, seasonal, abnormal, and extreme weather conditions and weather events; and (iii) these types of weather variation are indeed related to income variation. In particular, warmer temperatures and heat extremes can have negative income effects in all climate contexts and for all socioeconomic groups and most income activities. Only staple crops, forestry, and fishing seem to be less sensitive to hotter conditions. The effects of rainfall are more difficult to generalize. Some findings indicate that more rainfall is beneficial in drier places but harmful in wetter places. Interestingly, the incomes of poorer households seem to be negatively affected by wetter conditions, while those of wealthier households are more impacted by drier conditions. An increase in rainfall levels and flood conditions between 2012 and 2014, which were relatively wet years, is related to reduced income growth between these two years. Altogether these findings suggests that greater attention has to be paid to making rural livelihoods more resilient to weather variation which, is very likely to increase because of climate change.

Poverty and climate change

This study combines high-resolution, geo-spatial data and household data from the Vietnam Living Standard Measurement Surveys in 2010, 2012, and 2014 to investigate the relationship between environmental risks and poverty. Using recently developed data on air pollution, tree cover loss, land degradation, slope, rainfall and temperature variability, and flood and drought hazards, the study shows: (i) at the district level, there are hotspots of high poverty and environmental risks; (ii) ethnic minorities and poor households are much more exposed to multiple environmental risks than other groups, and also within rural and urban areas poorer households live in communes exposed to higher environmental risks; and (iii) environmental risks relate to lower consumption levels, but less so to lower consumption growth over time. Altogether these findings suggest that Vietnam’s poor are disproportionally exposed to environmental risks, which can result in livelihood impacts that in many ways go beyond consumption. In light of growing pressures due to population growth, economic development and climate change, green growth actions, ecosystem-based adaptation, and land-use planning could be important strategies to reduce the environmental burden on poor people.