Ulrich Fahl

Energy consumption for space heating of West-German households: empirical evidence, scenario projections and policy implications

Abstract Both, the technical characteristics of buildings, e.g. insulation standards, and the utilisation patterns of households are important determinants of the space heating demand of private households. Therefore, this paper examines to what extent socio-economic characteristics of households (household size, social position, income, etc.) are suitable to explain households behaviour concerning space heating given technical building characteristics. On the other hand, energy efficiency factors derived from technical simulation models are scrutinised. The empirical basis of this analysis is the official household survey 1988 for West Germany containing about 44,000 data sets. Therefrom it turns out that the German insulation standards of buildings have been less effective in the past than assumed on the basis of technical simulations. By means of scenario calculations projections of the heating energy demand for space heating in the future are obtained, sketching the effect of different possible socio-economic developments on the space heating consumption and analysing different political options concerning building insulation standards for new buildings and the existing building stock.

A CGE-Analysis of Energy Policies Considering Labor Market Imperfections and Technology Specifications

The paper establishes a CGE/MPSGE model for evaluating energy policy measures with emphasis on their employment impacts. It specifies a dual labor market with respect to qualification, two different mechanisms for skill specific unemployment, and a technology detailed description of electricity generation. Non clearing of the dual labor market is modeled via minimum wage constraints and via wage curves. The model is exemplarily applied for the analysis of capital subsidies on the application of technologies using renewable energy sources. Quantitative results highlight that subsidies on these technologies do not automatically lead to a significant reduction in emissions. Moreover, if emission reductions are achieved these might actually partly result from negative growth effects induced by the promotion of cost inefficient technologies. Inefficiencies in the energy system increase unemployment for both skilled and unskilled labor.

Greenhouse gas emissions and abatement costs of biofuel production in South Africa

Transport accounts for about one quarter of South Africas final energy consumption. Most of the energy used is based on fossil fuels causing significant environmental burdens. This threat becomes even more dominant as a significant growth in transport demand is forecasted, especially in South Africas economic hub, Gauteng province. The South African government has realized the potential of biofuel usage for reducing oil import dependency and greenhouse gas (GHG) and has hence developed a National Biofuels Industrial Strategy to enforce their use. However, there is limited experience in the country in commercial biofuel production and some of the proposed crops (i.e. rapeseed and sugar beet) have not been yet cultivated on a larger scale. Furthermore, there is only limited research available, looking at the feasibility of commercial scale biofuel production or abatement costs of GHG emissions. To assess the opportunities of biofuel production in South Africa, the production costs and consumer price levels of the fuels recommended by the national strategy are analysed in this article. Moreover, the lifecycle GHG emissions and mitigation costs are calculated compared to the calculated fossil fuel reference including coal to liquid (CTL) and gas to liquid (GTL) fuels. The results show that the cost for biofuel production in South Africa are currently significantly higher (between 30% and 80%) than for the reference fossil fuels. The lifecycle GHG emissions of biofuels (especially for sugar cane) are considerably lower (up to 45%) than the reference fossil GHG emissions. The resulting GHG abatement costs are between 1000 and 2500 ZAR2007 per saved ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is high compared to the current European CO2 market prices of ca. 143 ZAR2007 t−1. The analysis has shown that biofuel production and utilization in South Africa offers a significant GHG‐mitigation potential but at relatively high cost.

Analysing the interaction between emission trading and renewable electricity support in TIMES

As the number of instruments applied in the area of energy and climate policy is rising, the issue of policy interaction needs to be explored further. This article analyses the interdependencies between the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the German feed-in tariffs (FITs) for renewable electricity in a quantitative manner using a bottom-up energy system model. Flexible modelling approaches are presented for both instruments, with which all impacts on the energy system can be evaluated endogenously. It is shown that national climate policy measures can have an effect on the supranational emissions trading system by increasing emission reduction in the German electricity sector by up to 79 MtCO2 in 2030. As a result, emission certificate prices decline by between 1.9 €/tCO2 and 6.1 €/tCO2 and the burden sharing between participating countries changes, but no additional emission reduction is achieved at the European level. This also implies, however, that the cost efficiency of such a cap-and-trade system is distorted, with additional costs of the FIT system of up to €320 billion compared with lower costs for ETS emission certificates of between €44 billion and €57 billion (cumulated over the period 2013–2020). Policy relevance In order to fulfil ambitious emission reduction targets a large variety of climate policy instruments are being implemented in Europe. While some, like the EU ETS, directly address CO2 emissions, others aim to promote specific low-carbon technologies. The quantitative analysis of the interactions between the EU ETS and the German FIT scheme for renewable sources in electricity generation presented in this article helps to understand the importance of such interaction effects. Even though justifications can be found for the implementation of both types of instrument, the impact of the widespread use of support mechanisms for renewable electricity in Europe needs to be taken into account when fixing the reduction targets for the EU ETS in order to ensure a credible long-term investment signal.

Integrated strategies to reduce Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

Abstract Even though the issue of climate change is a topic of global relevance, there is a need for the development and assessment of mitigation strategies on national levels. A country study for Germany proposes that 50% CO 2 emission cuts until the year 2020 are technically feasible with technologies that are already available or are known to become available in the next 30 years. Nevertheless, results are strongly dependent on the political restrictions that are imposed on certain energy technologies. The enhanced use of combined heat and power production, the activation of large amounts of energy saving potentials, and renewable energy carriers will make the biggest contributions for the proposed emission reduction aim. Without politically induced constraints on the option of nuclear energy this technology can reduce CO 2 emissions even without increasing the costs of energy supply.

District Heating in Europe: Opportunities for Energy Savings, Business, and Jobs

This chapter investigates the state of the art of district heating (and cooling) in Europe (volumes of energy, localization, state of the installation, level of performance) as well as the technologies, measures, and examples of projects which have the potential to increase the performance of district heating. In this context, this chapter also discusses the integration of renewable sources into district heating networks, taking into account regional specificities. For the further development and use of district heating in the EU, taking into account the energy and climate policy objectives, the following three recommendations are of relevance: (1) District heating must become more climate-friendly; (2) efficiency gains must be considered holistically taking into account all stages of the district heating value chain; and (3) the transition to a smart district heating and cooling system should be conceptualized, developed, and implemented.Abstract This chapter investigates the state of the art of district heating (and cooling) in Europe (volumes of energy, localization, state of the installation, level of performance) as well as the technologies, measures, and examples of projects which have the potential to increase the performance of district heating. In this context, this chapter also discusses the integration of renewable sources into district heating networks, taking into account regional specificities. For the further development and use of district heating in the EU, taking into account the energy and climate policy objectives, the following three recommendations are of relevance: (1) District heating must become more climate-friendly; (2) efficiency gains must be considered holistically taking into account all stages of the district heating value chain; and (3) the transition to a smart district heating and cooling system should be conceptualized, developed, and implemented.

Curtailment: An Option for Cost-Efficient Integration of Variable Renewable Generation?

According to European Directive 2009/28/EC, renewable energies enjoy preferential treatment in the electricity grid. However, there will be times when it is not possible to accommodate all priority dispatch generation, such as from wind and solar energy, while maintaining the safe operation of the power system. The security-based curtailment of renewables should be minimized due to European directives. This chapter analyzes the future projections of curtailment needs because of security limits as well as the economic impact of curtailment in selected EU Member States. The use of renewable curtailment not only for grid security but also for economic reasons can potentially contribute to a significant reduction of investment needs in both grid and storage extension. For that purpose, the power output of renewable energy plants would have to be limited in some hours of the year, but their energy production over the year would only decrease by a small percentage.

Concentrated solar power generation: Firm and dispatchable capacity for Brazil’s solar future?

The Brazilian electricity mix is currently dominated by renewable energy forms, foremost hydropower. Large additional capacity demands are expected in the mid-term future but additional potential for hydro power is limited. In addition it is planned to construct more than 17 GW of wind power and additional capacity of photovoltaics (PV). Due to the fluctuating nature of such renewables, however, wind and PV are hardly able to provide firm capacity. Concentrated solar power (CSP) might be a feasible option to provide firm and dispatchable capacity at low carbon emissions. This study analyses the opportunities for integrating CSP into the Brazilian energy system. Making use of the TiPS-B model, a novel application of the optimization model generator TIMES, we compare different climate protection strategies with a reference scenario and analyze the contribution of CSP to the electricity mix. The analysis covers various types of CSP power plants with molten salt energy storage where we look at possible dispat...

The role of CSP in Brazil: A multi-model analysis

MESSAGE, TIMES and REMIX-CEM are potential tools for modelling a larger penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the Brazilian power system. They also allow devising the opportunities that concentrated solar power (CSP) plants offer to the power system and to the wider energy system. There are different opportunities for CSP in Brazil in the short and medium term, consolidating this technology as a feasible alternative for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in Brazil. This work verified that CSP is a cost-effective option only under very stringent mitigation scenarios (4DS and 2DS) and when carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not available. Still, according to the findings of REMIX-CEM-B, CSP can provide firm energy and dispatchable capacity in the Northeast region of Brazil, optimally complementing wind and PV generation. Moreover, CSP can offer additional flexibility to the Northeast power system, especially during winter and after 2030.

Energiewirtschaftliche Langfristszenarien für alternative Kraftstoffe und Antriebskonzepte

Dieser Beitrag vom Institut fur Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) der Universitat Stuttgart stellt eine umfassende Analyse vor, in der unterschiedliche Fahrzeugkonzepte und Kraftstoffe im Kontext der gesamtenergiewirtschaftlichen Entwicklung untersucht werden. Wahrend der Teil 1 sich mit Antriebskonzepten und Kraftstoffen befasste [12], beschreibt der vorliegende Teil 2 Langfristszenarien fur den Verkehrssektor in Deutschland.