Ingo Ellersdorfer

Model-based long-term electricity generation system planning under uncertainty

Within this paper a stochastic linear mixed-integer model for power plant investment planning under uncertainty is presented. Technical constraints relating to thermal power plants are implemented to better determine their operational flexibility. Modeled with a scenario recombining tree, uncertain wind power generation is explicitly considered in the unit commitment planning. In order to investigate the enhanced impact of heat supply on the electricity market due to increasing capacity of combined heat and power units, district heating systems are incorporated. Modeling results for the German electricity market are discussed regarding the significant influence of uncertainty on investment decisions.

A CGE-Analysis of Energy Policies Considering Labor Market Imperfections and Technology Specifications

The paper establishes a CGE/MPSGE model for evaluating energy policy measures with emphasis on their employment impacts. It specifies a dual labor market with respect to qualification, two different mechanisms for skill specific unemployment, and a technology detailed description of electricity generation. Non clearing of the dual labor market is modeled via minimum wage constraints and via wage curves. The model is exemplarily applied for the analysis of capital subsidies on the application of technologies using renewable energy sources. Quantitative results highlight that subsidies on these technologies do not automatically lead to a significant reduction in emissions. Moreover, if emission reductions are achieved these might actually partly result from negative growth effects induced by the promotion of cost inefficient technologies. Inefficiencies in the energy system increase unemployment for both skilled and unskilled labor.

Typical hour based modeling of the power generation system

In the current research trend, numerous publications dealing with investment decisions focus on modeling approaches adapted to the liberalized electricity market. Among these, short-term risks are however seldom sufficiently considered due to the significantly simplified modeling of unit commitment. Within this paper, a short-term unit commitment model with a high level of detail is extended into a long-term model with investment decisions based on typical hours. As the most innovative part, an algorithm is introduced to effectively identify the chronological relation among the typical hours and to transform the real hour based constraints to typical hour based formulations.

Energieprognose Bayern 2030

Im Gutachten „Energieprognose Bayern 2030“ wird untersucht, wie sich die erfolgten Veranderungen der energiewirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen auf die Entwicklung von Energieversorgung und -anwendung in Bayern auswirken und welche Folgen dies wiederum auf die Entwicklung der energiebezogenen Emissionen haben wird. Damit sollen Daten und Analysen vorgelegt werden, die eine belastbare Basis fur die Ausgestaltung der energiepolitischen Rahmenbedingungen in Bayern darstellen, die sich an den Zielen einer sicheren, wirtschaftlichen, umwelt- und nachweltvertraglichen, d. h. dem Leitbild der „nachhaltigen Entwicklung“ entsprechenden Energieversorgung orientiert, so dass sowohl die okonomischen als auch die okologischen Anforderungen an die Energieversorgung bestmoglich erfullt werden konnen.

Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Integrated Assessment Modellinstrumentariums für die Analyse nachhaltiger Entwicklungen der Energieversorgung in Deutschland : Schlussbericht

Ziel des Forschungsvorhabens ist es, ein Integrated Assessment Modellinstrumentarium zu entwickeln und fur die Analyse nachhaltiger Entwicklungen der Energieversorgung in Deutschland im globalen und europaischen Kontext anzuwenden. Das Modellinstrumentarium setzt sich aus vier Bausteinen zusammen. Zur Beurteilung der ressourcenbezogenen Effekte der globalen wie regionalen Nachfrage nach Primarenergietragern ist das neu entwickelte Ressourcenmodell LOPEX an das Allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell NEWAGE-World gekoppelt worden. Auf der Basis der mit NEWAGE ermittelten weltweiten regionalisierten Nachfragen nach Energietragern werden mit LOPEX Produktions- und Abbaupfade sowie Preispfade fur die Energietrager Erdol, Erdgas und Steinkohle abgeschatzt. Zum anderen wird durch die Anbindung des Umwelt Wirkungsmodells EcoSense an das europaische Energiesystemmodell TIMES-ES, das Deutschland und seine Nachbarstaaten hinsichtlich der gesamten Energieflusse von den Energiedienstleistungen bis zur Primarenergiebereitstellung und die dabei entstehenden Emissionen erfasst, eine effiziente und zuverlassige Bewertung von Emissionsminderungsstrategien unter Berucksichtigung externer Effekte und Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren auf europaischer Ebene ermoglicht. The objective of this research project is to create a model system for integrated assessment and to use it for the analysis of sustainable developments of energy supply in Germany, both in a European and a global context. The model system consists of four components. The newly developed resource model LOPEX has been linked to the general equilibrium model NEWAGE-World, in order to carry out assessments of the resource-related effects of global and regional demands for primary energy carriers. LOPEX will evaluate the production paths and price evolution for crude oil, natural gas and coal, based upon the globally regionalized demands for energy carriers computed by NEWAGE. The European energy systems model TIMES-ES describes Germany and its neighbouring countries in terms of all energy flows ranging from energy services to the supply of primary energy and the resultant emissions. The integration of the environmental effects model EcoSense with TIMES-ES thus enables an efficient and reliable assessment of emission reduction strategies to be made, taking into account external effects and indicators of sustainability on a European level.