Urban J. Jermann

Efficiency, Equilibrium, and Asset Pricing with Risk of Default

We introduce a new equilibrium concept and study its efficiency and asset pricing implications for the environment analyzed by Kehoe and Levine (1993) and Kocherlakota (1996). Our equilibrium concept has complete markets and endogenous solvency constraints. These solvency constraints prevent default at the cost of reducing risk sharing. We show versions of the welfare theorems. We characterize the preferences and endowments that lead to equilibria with incomplete risk sharing. We compare the resulting pricing kernel with the one for economies without participation constraints: interest rates are lower and risk premia depend on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Additionally, we show that asset prices depend only on the valuation of agents with substantial idiosyncratic risk.

International portfolio diversification and endogenous labor supply choice

This paper presents a multi-country general equilibrium model driven by productivity shocks, where labor supply and consumption are chosen endogenously. Weuse this framework to study the effect of labor supply for optimal international diversification. We find that the models ability to help explain home-bias depends crucially on the level of substituability between consumption and non-working time.

Financial Markets' Views about the Euro-Swiss Franc Floor

Exchange rates and option prices incorporate market participants’ views about the credibility and the effects of exchange rate targets. I present a model to determine exchange rates under policy targets that can be used to price options. The model is estimated with Euro-Swiss Franc exchange rate and options price data. In the first few months of the minimum exchange rate policy, the implied survival probability of the policy for a three month horizon was typically less than 75%. Over time, the credibility increased and this probability reached 95% in August 2014. The analysis also implies that during the second quarter of 2012, when reserve accumulation was high, the exchange rate without the policy would have been as low as about 1 Swiss franc per euro.

Negative Swap Spreads and Limited Arbitrage

Since October 2008, fixed rates for interest rate swaps with a 30-year maturity have been mostly below Treasury rates with the same maturity. Under standard assumptions, this implies the existence of arbitrage opportunities. This paper presents a model for pricing interest rate swaps, where frictions for holding bonds limit arbitrage. I analytically show that negative swap spreads should not be surprising. In the calibrated model, swap spreads can reasonably match empirical counterparts without the need for large demand imbalances in the swap market. Empirical evidence is consistent with the relation between term spreads and swap spreads in the model.Received April 16, 2017; editorial decision Januray 3, 2019 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Bitcoin and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation

The drivers of Bitcoins price fluctuations are studied within a framework based on Cagans model of hyperinflation. In the model, the price of Bitcoin is driven by stochastic adoption and payments technology, as well as endogenous expectations of future values. The model is estimated with bitcoin prices, transaction volumes, and money supply data. A majority of price fluctuations can be attributed to stochastic adoption, shocks to the payments technology are less important. The money demand elasticity is estimated to be larger than for fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.

Should the U.S. Government Issue Floating Rate Notes

Since January 2014 the U.S. Treasury has been issuing floating rate notes (FRNs). We estimate that the U.S. FRNs have been paying excess interest between 5 and 39 basis points above the implied cost for other Treasury securities. We find a strong positive relation between our estimated excess spreads on FRNs and the subsequent realized excess returns of FRNs over related T-bill investment strategies. With more than 300 billion dollars of FRNs outstanding, the yearly excess borrowing costs are estimated to be several hundreds of millions of dollars. To rationalize this finding, we examine the role of FRNs from the perspective of optimal government debt management to smooth taxes. In the model, bills can be cheaper to issue than FRNs, and the payoffs for FRNs are perfectly correlated with future short rates. FRNs can be used to manage the refinancing risk from rolling over short-term debt. We derive conditions under which the issuance of FRNs can optimally be positive. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.