V.A.W.J. Marchau

Dynamic adaptive policies: a way to improve the cost–benefit performance of megaprojects?

Megaprojects are large, costly, complex infrastructure projects. To assess the financial viability of a megaproject, a cost—benefit analysis (CBA) is usually performed; the results depend upon the accuracy of the cost estimations and the predictive models used to forecast future demand for the use of the infrastructure. The outcomes of the models are very vulnerable to unexpected events. As a result, the CBA may become unreliable and give an unrealistic picture of the financial viability of a project. An alternative way of policy making that tries to take uncertainty into account is the dynamic adaptive policy (DAP) approach. This approach involves a systematic method for designing and implementing a policy over time that is based on a clear set of constraints and objectives and that involves monitoring the environment, gathering information, and adjusting and readjusting to new circumstances. The efficacy of this type of policy making has already been shown, but whether DAP leads to a better cost—benefit performance of megaprojects is unknown. In this paper we focus on answering two research questions: How can CBA be applied to DAP? How good is the cost—benefit performance of megaprojects when using DAP compared with the cost—benefit performance when using the static policy-making approach? In this paper a framework based on real options theory is specified, enabling a CBA to be performed on a dynamic adaptive policy. This framework is then applied to a case involving Schiphol Airport, Amsterdam, to compare the cost—benefit performance of the static policy with the cost—benefit performance using the DAP approach. For this case, the cost—benefit performance of the megaproject under the DAP approach turns out to be better compared with its performance under the static policy. This result provides a first indication that adaptive policies might be able to improve the cost—benefit performance of megaprojects.

Introducing advanced electronic driver support systems: An exploration of market and technological uncertainties

R&D in the field of driver support systems is increasingly paid attention to. These systems can contribute significantly to public traffic goals. However, there is much uncertainty about future technology developments, market introduction, and impacts on driver and traffic behaviour. An international Delphi study collecting expert opinions on these issues is partly described here. The Delphi study was organized in three rounds. Opinions of 50 experts from the USA, Japan and Europe were collected. The paper is limited to market introduction, and technological and driver-behavioural barriers. The main conclusion is that future developments are less obvious than often assumed.

Innovating urban public transport: some recent developments in the Netherlands

Authorities of urban areas are faced with growing traffic and environmental problems due to an ever-increasing use of cars within the urban area. The challenge is to limit and guide car use. The search for innovative strategies to cope with this challenge in the Netherlands focuses on the integration of three policy ingredients. These are: (a) influencing travel behaviour by offering seamless multi-mobility services, (b) the application of advanced information- and telecommunication technology and (c) the spatial concentration of new economic and residential developments along high quality public transport axes. This chapter discusses these ingredients separately and describes a project in the Dutch city of Eindhoven where these ingredients come together. The project, called ‘Phileas’ is a public transport service based on a fully new developed semi-automated bus on a network of dedicated lanes, offering a high level of information to the travellers and connecting new spatial developments by this public transport network.

Comment on “From Data to Decisions: Processing Information, Biases, and Beliefs for Improved Management of Natural Resources and Environments” by Glynn et al.

Glynn et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000487) note the importance of engaging stakeholders in the process of public policymaking and analysis. In particular, they highlight the central role biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values play in such engagement. However, the framework they propose neglects uncertainty, which significantly restricts any ability to engage effectively with BBHV. We show how their papers narrow view can be widened to include aspects of risk and uncertainty.

The potential of green gas in the Dutch transport sector

In theory, green gas has the potential to become an attractive alternative for fossil fuels so as to contribute to the transport sector becoming more sustainable and environment-friendly. However, the large-scale implementation of green gas is hampered by many uncertainties. In this paper these uncertainties are assessed through on a series of SWOT analyses based on a study of the existing literature and inputs from stakeholders. The results of the SWOT analyses show that there are good prospects for the implementation of green gas in the longer run. The amount of green gas needed to replace the current fuel use of cars driving on diesel or petrol is huge, but it can be produced in an economically feasible way. For several specific markets, notably private cars, buses and trucks, it is found that green gas produced from landfill gas is profitable at least for private cars and may lead to relatively lower costs for the other two uses.

USER CHOICES REGARDING VEHICLE-DRIVING AUTOMATION

The introduction of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in motor vehicles is expected to improve traffic efficiency and safety significantly. These systems support the driver in controlling his vehicle applying advanced sensing, computing and controlling devices. Successful implementation of these systems in the near future will largely depend on the willingness of people to buy and use these systems. As to this willingness, not much is known yet. Therefore, in this paper the willingness of potential ADAS users is explored. Choices for several ADAS have been measured by using the stated choice approach. Both drivers and fleet-owners of cars, trucks and buses have been interrogated about their choices regarding several hypothetical ADAS alternatives. Alternative systems were presented based on their functional features, price levels, and impacts on travel time and fuel consumption. Logit modelling has been applied to estimate how ADAS characteristics affect overall choices. The results show that, drivers and fleet-operators are not that willing to have ADAS in their vehicle(s): on average, in 29% of the cases the respondents are willing to purchase an ADAS alternative. However, this finding needs to be qualified, as user choices fluctuate strongly with specific ADAS characteristics. In particular, ADAS which support the driver in proper distance keeping, lane keeping and lane changing by warnings, at relatively low prices and improve travel time and fuel consumption seems most promising. The probabilities of users for purchasing the ADAS currently available on the market are relatively low.

URBAN LAND USE CHANGES AND ICT-BASED INNOVATION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT

R&D in Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) develops fast. Applications focus on all levels of the transport system: driver behaviour, infrastructure, traffic management and travel choices. Smart combinations of these applications in coherent ITS concepts will be the challenge for the future. Applied to urban systems, it is assumed that different ITS concepts will work out different with respect to urban patterns of economic activities. So far this possible impacts has hardly been a subject of research. This paper elaborates on the first step of a project that research on this relationship. In the paper attention is paid to the possible distinctions between ITS concepts. An illustration of such a concept, designed for public transport in a city in the Netherlands, is briefly described.