V. Venugopal

Diurnal‐scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

[1]xa0One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25° × 0.25° 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999–2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite- or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the “peak octet,” is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a dual maxima (early morning and early/late afternoon). The Himalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430–1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e.g., Himalayas) is significantly different from coastal orography (e.g., Western Ghats). We also find that over the Gangetic plains, the peak octet is around 1430 IST, a few hours earlier compared to the typical early evening maxima over land.

Variability of cloud liquid water and ice over South Asia from TMI estimates

In this study, the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission based Microwave Imager estimates (2A12) have been used to compare and contrast the characteristics of cloud liquid water and ice over the Indian land region and the ocean surrounding it, during the premonsoon (May) and monsoon (June–September) seasons. Based on the spatial homogeneity of rainfall, we have selected five regions for our study (three over ocean, two over land). Comparison across three ocean regions suggests that the cloud liquid water (CLW) over the orographically influenced Arabian Sea (close to the Indian west coast) behaves differently from the CLW over a trapped ocean (Bay of Bengal) or an open ocean (equatorial Indian Ocean). Specifically, the Arabian Sea region shows higher liquid water for a lower range of rainfall, whereas the Bay of Bengal and the equatorial Indian Ocean show higher liquid water for a higher range of rainfall. Apart from geographic differences, we also documented seasonal differences by comparing CLW profiles between monsoon and premonsoon periods, as well as between early and peak phases of the monsoon. We find that the CLW during the lean periods of rainfall (May or June) is higher than during the peak and late monsoon season (July–September) for raining clouds. As active and break phases are important signatures of the monsoon progression, we also analysed the differences in CLW during various phases of the monsoon, namely, active, break, active-to-break and break-to-active transition phases. We find that the cloud liquid water content during the break-to-active transition phase is significantly higher than during the active-to-break transition phase over central India. We speculate that this could be attributed to higher amount of aerosol loading over this region during the break phase. We lend credence to this aerosol-CLW/rain association by comparing the central Indian CLW with that overxa0southeast Asia (where the aerosol loading is significantly smaller) and find that in the latter region, there are no significant differences in CLW during the different phases of the monsoon. While our hypothesis needs to be further investigated with numerical models, the results presented in this study can potentially serve as a good benchmark in evaluating the performance of cloud resolving models over the Indian region.

Climatology of contribution‐weighted tropical rain rates based on TRMM 3B42

The climatology of annual mean tropical rain rate is investigated based on merged Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data. At 0.25°xa0×xa00.25° spatial resolution, and 3-hourly temporal resolution, half the rain is concentrated within only ∼1% of the area of the tropics at any given instant. When plotted as a function of logarithm of rain rate, the cumulative contribution of rate-ranked rain occurrences to the annual mean rainfall in each grid box is S shaped and its derivative, the contribution-weighted rain rate spectrum, is Gaussian shaped. The 50% intercept of the cumulative contribution R50 is almost equivalent to the contribution-weighted mean logarithmic rain rate RL¯ based on all significant rain occurrences. The spatial patterns of R50 and RL¯ are similar to those obtained by mapping the fraction of the annual accumulation explained by rain occurrences with rates above various specified thresholds. The geographical distribution of R50 confirms the existence of patterns noted in prior analyses based on TRMM precipitation radar data and reveals several previously unnoticed features.

Role of aerosols in modulating cloud properties during active–break cycle of Indian summer monsoon

In this study, the weather research and forecast model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem), is used to understand the impact of aerosol–cloud interaction during the active–break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon. Two sets of simulations are performed, one with a fixed aerosol concentration (ConstantAero) and the other with an observation-based prescription of the rate of change of aerosol concentration as a function of precipitation (VaryingAero). This prescription is derived based on satellite-retrieved daily rainrate and concurrent observations of aerosol optical depth from aerosol robotic network. The proposed modification is necessitated by the lack of realistic emission estimates over the Indian region as well as the presence of inherent biases in monsoon simulation in WRF-Chem. In the VaryingAero simulation, unlike in the ConstantAero run, we find that the break-to-active monsoon phase has more cloud liquid water (CLW) and less rain efficiency than in the active-to-break phase. This is primarily due to the indirect effect of increased aerosol loading in the break phase. This result is in accordance with the observed behaviour of CLW estimtes from microwave imager (TRMM 2A12) and radar reflectivity (TRMM precipitation radar). We also find that the proposed interactive aerosol loading results in higher spatial variability in CLW and enhances the likelihood of increased cloud cover via formation of larger clouds. The modification also alters the diurnal cycle of clouds in break and break-to-active phases as compared to other phases due to aerosol loading, with a stronger diurnal cycle of upper level clouds in these phases in the VaryingAero model as compared to ConstantAero model.

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

Abstract A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June–September), with a peak during July–August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse raingauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Citation Suprit, K., Shankar, D., Venugopal, V. and Bhatkar, N.V., 2012. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 686–704.

Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall

We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the most recent decade (1998-present) compared with the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (compared with 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to a cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation further, a similar comparison is performed between 1960 and 1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 compared with 1960-1978. Taking this evidence together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO.