Vadim Kufenko

Economic, structural and socio-psychological determinants of protests in Russia during 2011–2012

This empirical analysis is based on the latent variable framework to identify key determinants of protests in Russia during 2011–2012. We derive logistic regressions from the revolution constraints based on economic (the political Kuznets Curve) and socio‐psychological (grievance) theories of protest. Our findings suggest a positive linear relationship between income and income inequality, contradicting the Kuznets curve. Our estimations show that inequality, share of the poor, the relation of the governors family income to the average family income, distance to Moscow and accumulated human capital increase the risk of protest, whereas transfers and subsidies decrease these risks.

Game theory modeling for the Cold War on both sides of the Iron Curtain

The bi-polar confrontation between the Soviet Union and the USA involved many leading game theorists from both sides of the Iron Curtain: Oskar Morgenstern, John von Neumann, Michael Intriligator, John Nash, Thomas Schelling and Steven Brams from the United States and Nikolay Vorob’ev, Leon A. Petrosyan, Elena B. Yanovskaya and Olga N. Bondareva from the Soviet Union. The formalization of game theory (GT) took place prior to the Cold War but the geopolitical confrontation hastened and shaped its evolution. In our article we outline four similarities and differences between Western GT and Soviet GT: 1) the Iron Curtain resulted in a lagged evolution of GT in the Soviet Union; 2) Soviet GT focused more on operations research and issues of centralized planning; 3) the contemporary Western view on Soviet GT was biased and Soviet contributions, including works on dynamic stability, non-emptiness of the core and many refinements, suggest that Soviet GT was able to catch up to the Western level relatively fast; 4) international conferences, including Vilnius, 1971, fostered interaction between Soviet game theorists and their Western colleagues. In general, we consider the Cold War to be a positive environment for GT in the West and in the Soviet Union.

The heights of French-Canadian convicts, 1780s–1820s

&NA; This paper uses a novel dataset of heights collected from the records of the Quebec City prison between 1813 and 1847 to survey the French‐Canadian population of Quebec—which was then known either as Lower Canada or Canada East. Using a birth‐cohort approach with 10 year birth cohorts from the 1780s to the 1820s, we find that French‐Canadian prisoners grew shorter over the period. Through the whole sample period, they were short compared to Americans. However, French‐Canadians were taller either than their cousins in France or the inhabitants of Latin America (except Argentinians). In addition to extending anthropometric data in Canada to the 1780s, we are able to extend comparisons between the Old and New Worlds as well as comparisons between North America and Latin America. We highlight the key structural economic changes and shocks and discuss their possible impact on the anthropometric data.

Business cycles in the economy and in economics: an econometric analysis

It is sometimes pointed out that economic research is prone to move in cycles and react to particular events such as crises and recessions. The present paper analyses this issue through a quantitative analysis by answering the research question of whether or not the economic literature on business cycles is correlated with movements and changes in actual economic activity. To tackle this question, a bibliometric analysis of key terms related to business cycle and crises theory is performed. In a second step, these results are confronted with data on actual economic developments in order to investigate the question of whether or not the theoretical literature follows trends and developments in economic data. To determine the connection between economic activity and developments in the academic literature, a descriptive analysis is scrutinized by econometric tests. In the short run, the VARs with cyclical fluctuations point out multiple cases where economic variables Granger-cause bibliometric ones. In the long run, the fractionally cointegrated VARs suggest that many bibliometric variables respond to economic shocks. In the multivariate framework, the Diebold–Mariano test shows that economic variables significantly improve the quality of the forecast of bibliometric indices. The paper also includes impulse-response function analysis for a quantitative assessment of the effects from economic to bibliometric variables. The results point towards a qualified confirmation of the hypothesis of an effect of business cycles and crises in economic variables on discussions in the literature.

Does size matter? Implications of household size for economic growth and convergence

We assess the effects of changes in household size on the long-run evolution of living standards and on cross-country convergence. When the observed changes in average household size across countries are taken into consideration, growth in living standards is slower throughout the 20th century as compared to a measure based on per capita GDP. Furthermore, the speed of divergence between different countries be- fore 1950 is faster and the speed of convergence after 1950 is slower after adjusting for the evolution in household size.

Continuity under a different name: The outcome of privatisation in Serbia

ABSTRACT Normally, privatisation is seen as beneficial. This paper considers the case of Serbia – a latecomer in the matter – where privatisation was partly a result of exogenous pressures and where the process has been deemed a failure. In Serbia, a sizeable number of privatised firms were bought by bureaucrats and politicians and all firms were subjected to a period of supervision. We argue that the design of this process allowed rent-seekers to conserve their privileges through asset-stripping, which explains the failure. In order to do so, we perform an empirical analysis of the determinants of liquidation, merger and bankruptcy of privatised firms from 2002 to 2015. We construct a novel data set from primary sources, free of the ‘survivorship bias’ and containing proxies for various types of owners, indirect signs of asset-stripping strategy and a broad range of controls. Our results indicate that firms owned by politicians faced significantly higher risks of bankruptcy, especially after the end of supervision.

Empire Effect Versus Crowding Out Effect: Shipping Productivity in the North Atlantic from 1764 to 1860

While there is a rich literature on the benefits of empire in terms of the provision of key public goods—notably security for international trade—the costs have been downplayed. In this paper, we focus on merchant shipping data between Canada and Britain between 1764 and 1860 to measure these costs. Imperial hegemony would have implied greater security for shippers and this, in turn, would have stimulated investments in productivity. However, we contend that a counter-effect would have operated simultaneously. The provision of greater security meant greater military navies which crowded out merchant navies in terms of availability of capital and labor. We argue that the benefit of the “security effect” has to be weighed against the cost of the “crowding-out” effect. We find that the “crowding-out effect” was larger than the “security effect.” For “security effects” to overpower “crowding out effects,” one had to have a very small navy in absolute terms but a large one relative to other military powers.

The equally “bad” French and English farmers of Quebec: New TFP measures from the 1831 census

ABSTRACT New TFP estimates drawn from the neglected census of 1831 for Lower Canada are used to test the controversial (but still dominant) traditional “poor French farmers” explanation for a prolonged economic crisis. The new evidence shows that French-speaking areas were equally as productive as English-speaking areas, something that upturns the established consensus and reinforces the minority viewpoint that culture had little to do with the crisis. Using a broad range of controls, the researchers find that this conclusion is robust and that other variables such as settlement recency, environment, and economic structure were much more significant determinants of TFP. These results warrant the abandonment of the cultural explanation and a shift toward other explanatory channels.

Religious minority in business history: The case of Old Believers

Abstract The role of the Old Believers (OB) in the development of Russian industry has been noted by many historians; however, empirical research on the topic is scarce. Using official censuses, archive sources, and industrial reports, the role of OB enterprises in the Moscow textile industry for the period 1832–1890 was examined. The analysis highlighted the rise and fall of the participation of OB in the textile industry, contrasting the findings of other researchers, which were often exaggerated. The findings can be explained by social networks and trust which arise from the minority status, whereas the relative decline is related to structural changes and preferences of OB to family-type of business.