Valentin Bertsch

Uncertainty handling in multi-attribute decision support for industrial risk management

The complexity of todays industrial production networks constitutes a new challenge for industrial risk and safety management. In order to handle potential risks to and emanating from industry and their respective impact on mankind as well as the environment, an integrated approach to industrial risk management is needed, since complex decision situations need to be resolved requiring input from diverse scientific disciplines and the consideration of various often conflicting criteria. Providing the basis for the evaluation of such conflicting criteria and for bringing together existing knowledge from different disciplines, approaches from Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be very helpful to resolve the complexity of the occurring decision situations. In order to address the various types of uncertainty, which may arise in a decision making process in industrial risk management, a framework for uncertainty handling is proposed. On the basis of a structured uncertainty classification, methods based on Monte Carlo simulation can be used for a consistent modelling, propagation and visualisation of the different types of uncertainty. Special focus is put on approaches that allow to explicitly illustrate the spread, i.e. the ranges in which the Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) results can vary in consequence of the uncertainties.

Moderated Decision Support and Countermeasure Planning for Off-Site Emergency Management

Emergency situations, both man-made and natural, can vary substantially, however, they do share the characteristic of sudden onset and the necessity for a coherent and effective emergency management. In the event of a nuclear or radiological accident in Europe, the real-time on-line decision support system RODOS provides support from the early phase through to the medium and long-term phases.

Multi-criteria decision support and stakeholder involvement in emergency management

Decision-making in emergency management involves many parties with different views, responsibilities and interests for which a consensus must be found. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can help to ensure transparency in such decision processes. This paper describes the application of MCDA in nuclear emergency and remediation management and the experiences gained from conducting moderated decision-making workshops. The workshops were based on a hypothetical nuclear accident scenario generated by the real-time online decision support system, RODOS, for nuclear emergency management. Focusing on the evaluation of long-term countermeasures, the multi-criteria decision support software, Web-HIPRE was used to guide and support the participating decision-makers, stakeholders and experts during the decision-making process in the moderated discussion. This software has been integrated into the RODOS system. In addition to identifying the factors driving decision-making in the context of nuclear emergency management, issues for further development of methodology and decision support tools were determined.

Multicriteria decision support for business continuity planning in the event of critical infrastructure disruptions

Industrial production sites and Critical Infrastructures (CIs) may be severely damaged by external events, such as man-made or natural hazards. Particularly, a disruption in the electricity supply may cause physical damages and production downtimes associated with substantial economic losses. Due to the tight interdependencies within the different CI sectors and the complex network structure of modern supply chains, these losses are (in most cases) not restricted to single companies and the resultant negative consequences might be propagated via cascading effects into far-off supply chain links. In order to reduce the negative consequences, speed up business recovery and enhance the overall coping capacity of industrial production sites and global supply chains in the event of CI disruptions, many companies have implemented Business Continuity Planning (BCP) programmes. Within this study, we assess the negative impacts of CI disruptions on production industry and introduce a quantitative method for BCP from the field of Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate the potential BCP measures.

A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation and transmission planning

The energy sector continues to undergo substantial structural changes. Currently, the expansion of renewable energy sources and the decentralisation of energy supply lead to new players entering the market who pursue different objectives and have different preferences. Thus, multiple and usually conflicting targets need to be considered. Moreover, recent public reactions towards infrastructure projects highlight the importance of considering public acceptance as a key dimension of decision making in the energy sector. As a result, decision processes grow more complex at all levels from political to strategic, tactical and operational decisions in companies. We therefore present an approach combining power systems analysis considering grid constraints and multi-criteria decision analysis. The approach focusses on multi-dimensional sensitivity analyses allowing for simultaneous variations of the different preference parameters determined within the decision analysis aimed at facilitating preference elicitation and consensus building in group decisions. The focus of the paper is the demonstration of the presented approach for a power generation and transmission planning case study in the context of the energy transition in Germany.

Layout Optimisation of Decentralised Energy Systems Under Uncertainty

We present a modelling approach to support the layout optimisation of decentralised energy systems composed of photovoltaic (PV) panels and heat pumps with thermal storage capabilities. The approach integrates the simulation-based generation of model input on the basis of publicly available meteorological data and the subsequent optimisation. Selected results concerning the choice of an appropriate storage size are presented for an illustrative decentralised energy system.

The reference installation approach for the estimation of industrial assets at risk

When natural disasters and extreme events such as storms, floods and earthquakes occur, it is not only people, residential buildings and infrastructure that are seriously affected, but also industry. Direct losses to installations as well as indirect losses, e.g., the interruption of production, can cause severe damage to companies and the economy as a whole. For a comparative and quantitative risk assessment, and being a prerequisite for emergency planning and crisis management (e.g., planning of mitigation measures), a financial appraisal of industrial assets at risk is needed. This paper presents the reference installation approach, which is a methodology that allows a consistent and transparent assessment of individual industrial asset values. The results of this bottom-up approach can be used for a detailed spatial mapping of industrial assets taking into account the characteristics of different sectors. [Received 9 May 2007; Revised 31 August 2007; Accepted 11 September 2007]

MULTIDIMENSIONAL MONTE CARLO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION SUPPORT

Abstract The resolution of complex decision situations usually requires input from different disciplines and fields of expertise. Contributing to transparency and traceability of decisions and taking into account the preferences of decision makers, multi-criteria decision analysis is suitable to bring together existing knowledge. In practice, a decision making process is subject to various sources of uncertainty. This paper describes a Monte Carlo approach to cope with the preferential uncertainties of the decision makers aiming at facilitating the process of weight elicitation and at comprehensibly visualizing and communicating the impact of the uncertainties on the results of the analysis.

Preference Sensitivity Analyses for Multi-Attribute Decision Support

The invention provides a filtration system suited to be coupled in a water transfer circuit with a tub, pool, spa, or the like, and includes a housing or casing within which is provided a filter element through which the water passes during operation. In one preferred embodiment, a heater is provided within the housing. The heater comprises an electrical heating element positioned within the center opening of an annular filter element. A pump and motor can be connected to the housing in a water transfer circuit. A strainer for removing hair, lint, or the like is preferably provided within the circuit upstream from the pump, that is to say, between the inlet of the pump and the spa or tub. The strainer can be located within the filter housing adjacent to and in fluid communication with the filter and between the filter and a removable cover releasably secured to the housing.

Multi-Criteria Decision Support and Uncertainty Handling, Propagation and Visualisation for Emergency and Remediation Management

The real-time online decision support system RODOS provides support throughout all phases of a nuclear or radiological emergency in Europe. The multicriteria decision support tool Web-HIPRE has been integrated into RODOS for a transparent evaluation of long-term measures, taking into account the preferences of a decision making team. However, a decision making process in practice is subject to various sources of uncertainty. This paper describes a Monte Carlo approach to consistently model and propagate the uncertainties within the RODOS system, including Web-HIPRE, aiming at comprehensibly visualising and communicating the uncertainties associated with the results from the decision analysis.