Valentina Ponomarenko

Testing persistence of cohort effects in the epidemiology of suicide: an age-period-cohort hysteresis model

Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC-Detrended (APCD) model to robustly estimate intensity of cohort effects identifying non-linear trends (or ‘detrended’ fluctuations) in suicide rates. The new APC-Hysteresis (APCH) model tests temporal stability of cohort effects. Analysing suicide rates in 25 WHO countries (periods 1970–74 to 2005–09; ages 20–24 to 70–79) with the APCD method, we find that country-specific birth cohort membership plays an important role in suicide rates. Among 25 countries, we detect 12 nations that show deep contrasts among cohort-specific suicide rates including Italy, Australia and the United States. The APCH method shows that cohort fluctuations are not stable across the life course but decline in Spain, France and Australia, whereas they remain stable in Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. We discuss the Spanish case with elevated suicide mortality of cohorts born 1965–1975 which declines with age, and the opposite case of the United States, where the identified cohort effects of those born around 1960 increase smoothly, but statistically significant across the life course.

Pension insecurity and well-being in Europe

This paper studies pension insecurity in a sample of non-retired individuals aged 50 years or older from 18 European countries. We capture pension insecurity with the subjective expectations on the probability that the government will reduce the pensions of the individual before retirement or will increase the statutory retirement age. We argue that changes in economic conditions and policy affect the formation of such probabilities, and through this, subjective wellbeing. In particular, we study the effects of pension insecurity on subjective wellbeing with pooled linear models, regressions per quintiles and instrumental variables. We find a statistically significant, stable and negative association between pension insecurity and subjective wellbeing. Our findings reveal that the individuals who are more affected by pension insecurity are those who are further away from their retirement, have lower income, assess their life survival as low, have higher cognitive abilities and do not expect private pension payments.

Increases in well-being after transition to retirement for unemployed. Catching up with formerly employed persons.

ABSTRACT This paper examines the extent to which wellbeing levels change in the transition to retirement depending on transitioning from being employed, unemployed or economically inactive. Whereas transitioning from employment to unemployment has been found to cause a decrease in subjective wellbeing with more time spent in unemployment, it is not clear how transitioning from unemployment to retirement affects wellbeing levels. We use the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe to monitor the life satisfaction of respondents who retire in between two waves. We portray wellbeing scores before and after retirement and then identify the change in life satisfaction during the retirement transition using a First Difference model. Results indicate that being unemployed before retirement is associated with an increase in life satisfaction, but presents mainly a catching-up effect compared to employed persons transitioning to retirement. These results are still significant if we control for selection into unemployment and country differences. Retirement from labour market inactivity does not lead to significant changes in wellbeing. As the wellbeing of unemployed persons recovers after transitioning to retirement, especially the currently unemployed population should be supported to prevent detrimental consequences of economically unfavourable conditions and lower wellbeing.