Louis Chauvel

Social Generations, Life Chances and Welfare Regime Sustainability

The generational sustainability of welfare regimes is of central importance to most long-term analyses of welfare state reforms (see for example: Esping-Andersen et al. 2002). In an ideal society, individual contributions to social welfare are supposed to be counterbalanced by expected benefits, but in reality there are structural disequilibria, notably between generations. Contemporary social reforms are designed to correct such imbalances, but the rewriting of the contract between generations could cause more harm than good. Here, the analysis of the generational disequilibria in France may be useful: French society faces severe generational non-linearities and inequalities, the consequences of which could be the long-term destabilization of the contemporary welfare regime.

Comparing Welfare Regime Changes: Living Standards and the Unequal Life Chances of Different Birth Cohorts

This article focuses on generational sustainability in welfare states and aims to analyse the long-term consequences that the reforms1 carried out by these states have on the different cohorts. It is shown that in the context of conjuncture fluctuation, from the “economic miracle” (1945–1975) to the slowdown in economic growth (1975 until today),2 a gap appeared between those who were exposed to a high rate of youth unemployment and its resulting consequences and those who were not, i.e. generations born before 1955 (the early baby boomers) and the generations born after 1955. This gap between generations would often be denied by the politicians in the public debate. These points of view imply that these generational dynamics could have major consequences for the stability of our welfare states. Furthermore, what we have observed in France in the emergence of strong inter-cohort inequalities at the expense of young adults is not seen in America. In America, the same stressors (economic slowdown and increasing competition) have resulted in a less visible inter-cohort, but a more obvious intra-cohort inequality.

Du pain et des vacances : la consommation des catégories socioprofessionnelles s'homogénéise-t-elle (encore) ?

Louis Chauvel : Brot und Ferien : gibt es (noch) eine Vereinheitlichung des Konsums der sozioberuflichen Kategorien ? Dieser Aufsatz bewertet die Hypothese der Naherung von Konsumarten der verschiedenen sozioberuflichen Kategorien. Nach Ansicht der radikalsten Autoren gabe es keinen Unterschied mehr in den Verbrauchsstrukturen der leitenden Angestellten und der Arbeiter. Eine diskriminierende Analyse zu den Budgetumfragen in den Jahren 1985 und 1995 zeigt, dass die leitenden Angestellten und die Arbeiter unterschiedliche Haushaltsstrukturen beibehalten, und dass es, in diesen zehn Jahren, zu keinen bezeichnenden Anderungen kam. Die Hierarchie aller sozioberuflichen Kategorien, die fur diese Methode berucksichtigt wurden, ist zeitlich bestandig. Daruber hinaus hat die Aktivitat der Ehefrau, die gegebenenfalls zu einer Verwischung der sozialen Grenzen hatte fuhren konnen, widerspruchliche empirische Auswirkungen : die Heterogamie der Ehepaare bringt die leitenden Angestellten den Arbeitern naher, die Homogamie bringt sie auseinander. Die Gesamtauswirkung ist null. Eine Langzeituntersuchung hatte zur Feststellung von bedeutenden Veranderungen fuhren konnen, fur die letzten zehn Jahre erscheinen jedoch die sozioberuflichen Kategorien als ein haltbares und wirksames Werkzeug zur Beschreibung.

Socioeconomic hierarchy and health gradient in Europe: the role of income inequality and of social origins

BackgroundHealth inequalities reflect multidimensional inequality (income, education, and other indicators of socioeconomic position) and vary across countries and welfare regimes. To which extent there is intergenerational transmission of health via parental socioeconomic status has rarely been investigated in comparative perspective. The study sought to explore if different measures of stratification produce the same health gradient and to which extent health gradients of income and of social origins vary with level of living and income inequality.MethodsA total of 299,770 observations were available from 18 countries assessed in EU-SILC 2005 and 2011 data, which contain information on social origins. Income inequality (Gini) and level of living were calculated from EU-SILC. Logit rank transformation provided normalized inequalities and distributions of income and social origins up to the extremes of the distribution and was used to investigate net comparable health gradients in detail. Multilevel random-slope models were run to post-estimate best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) and related standard deviations of residual intercepts (median health) and slopes (income-health gradients) per country and survey year.ResultsHealth gradients varied across different measures of stratification, with origins and income producing significant slopes after controls. Income inequality was associated with worse average health, but income inequality and steepness of the health gradient were only marginally associated.ConclusionsLinear health gradients suggest gains in health per rank of income and of origins even at the very extremes of the distribution. Intergenerational transmission of status gains in importance in countries with higher income inequality. Countries differ in the association of income inequality and income-related health gradient, and low income inequality may mask health problems of vulnerable individuals with low status. Not only income inequality, but other country characteristics such as familial orientation play a considerable role in explaining steepness of the health gradient.

Testing persistence of cohort effects in the epidemiology of suicide: an age-period-cohort hysteresis model

Birth cohort effects in suicide rates are well established, but to date there is no methodological approach or framework to test the temporal stability of these effects. We use the APC-Detrended (APCD) model to robustly estimate intensity of cohort effects identifying non-linear trends (or ‘detrended’ fluctuations) in suicide rates. The new APC-Hysteresis (APCH) model tests temporal stability of cohort effects. Analysing suicide rates in 25 WHO countries (periods 1970–74 to 2005–09; ages 20–24 to 70–79) with the APCD method, we find that country-specific birth cohort membership plays an important role in suicide rates. Among 25 countries, we detect 12 nations that show deep contrasts among cohort-specific suicide rates including Italy, Australia and the United States. The APCH method shows that cohort fluctuations are not stable across the life course but decline in Spain, France and Australia, whereas they remain stable in Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. We discuss the Spanish case with elevated suicide mortality of cohorts born 1965–1975 which declines with age, and the opposite case of the United States, where the identified cohort effects of those born around 1960 increase smoothly, but statistically significant across the life course.

L'uniformisation du taux de suicide masculin selon l'âge : effet de génération ou recomposition du cycle de vie ?

Louis Chauvel : Die Vereinheitlichung der mannlichen Selbstmordrate entsprechend der Altersklasse : Generationseffekt oder Neuordnung des Lebenszyklus ? Im Verlauf der letzten funfundzwanzig Jahre erfuhr das Profil der mannlichen Selbstmordrate in Frankreich entsprechend der Altersklasse tiefgehende Anderungen : bislang wuchs diese Rate regelmassig mit dem Alter; heute sind die Rate in den Altersklassen einheitlich geworden ; die Manner unter 40 Jahren wiesen in der Tat ein Wachstum ihrer Selbstmordrate aus, wahrend diese sich bei der Klasse 50 bis 70 Jahre zuruckentwickelte. Zwei konkurrierende statistische Modelle erlauben eine Lekture dieser Entwicklung. Das Erste, klassisch, versucht die Auswirkungen von Alter, Generation und Periode zu trennen ; es fuhrt zu dem Schluss, dass in bestimmten Generationen, mehr Selbstmorde vorliegen als in anderen. Das zweite Modell setzt voraus, dass die Hauptwirkung in der Neuordnung des Lebenszyklus liegt (Interaktionswirkung zwischen Alter und Periode), das heisst die Tatsache, dass das Lebensalter, die Jugend und die Altersjahre, nicht das Gleiche bedeuten vom Standpunkt des Selbstmords in 1950 und 1995. Die Untersuchung wird auf die Vereinigten Staaten ausgedehnt und daruber hinaus in Kurzform auf funfzehn weiteren Lander. Hieraus wird schliesslich klar, da die beiden Modelle sich den Daten gut anpassen, dass allein die wirklich soziologische Analyse des Problems, durch eine Verbindung der aus unterschiedlichen sozialen Feldern hervorgehenden Fakten, erlaubt, eine Entscheidung zu treffen zugunsten der Neuverteilung des sozialen Status entsprechend den Lebensaltern in einer Periode des abflauenden Wirtschaftswachstums.

The Intensity and Shape of Inequality: The ABG Method of Distributional Analysis

Inequality is anisotropic: its intensity varies by income level. We here develop a new tool, the isograph, to focus on local inequality and illustrate these variations. This method yields three coefficients which summarize the shape of inequality: a main coefficient, α, which measures inequality at the median; and two correction coefficients, β and γ, which pick up any differential curvature at the top and bottom of the distribution. The analysis of a set of 232 microdata samples from 41 different countries in the LIS datacenter archive allows us to provide a systematic overview of the properties of the ABG (α β γ) coefficients, which are compared to a set of standard indices including Atkinson indices, generalized entropy, Wolfson polarization, and the GB2 distribution. This method also provides a smoothing tool that reveals the differences in the shape of distributions (the strobiloid) and how these have changed over time.

The endless baby-boomer generation: Cohort differences in participation in political discussions in nine European countries in the period 1976-2008

ABSTRACT Using the Eurobarometer cross-sectional data sets conducted between 1976 and 2008 in nine European countries, we aim to describe and explain cohort differences. We make use of recent improvements of the age–period–cohort (APC) methodology to have a better assessment of these cohort-based changes. At first, we find strong and significant cohort fluctuations in participation in political discussion where the people born in the period 1945–1955 have an almost systematically higher participation than previous and following cohorts. The introduction of individual level variables such as education does not explain the cohort bump of the early baby boomers. Post-APC estimations show that the contextual factors size of a birth cohort and economic affluence at the entry into adulthood are important explanatory factors for cohort differences. In conclusion, since strong cohort effects are detected in the APC model, the decline in participation of the young appears to be less a temporary moratorium that will vanish with age but a durable trait without redeem.

Malaise in the Western Middle Classes

The living conditions and well-being of the middle class are traditionally considered an expression of how society is progressing. Yet growing inequality and the polarization of incomes observed in Western countries due to globalization, the recession and rapid technological change, is leading to what has been described as a “malaise of the middle class”. This article presents the evolution of the income distribution in selected Western countries and discusses the possible impact of the threat created by downward mobility and the erosion of the middle class in todays society.

Dynamics of Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from Germany and the US

This paper presents a methodology for comparing income rank volatility profiles over time and across distributions. While most of the existing measures are affected by changes in marginal distributions, this paper proposes a framework that is based on individuals’ relative positions in the distribution, and is neutral in relation to structural changes that occur in the economy. Applying this approach to investigate rank volatility in Germany and the US over three decades, we show that while poorer individuals within both countries are the most volatile, the volatility trend for the middle class in each of these countries differs.