Valter José Stülp

Relações de trocas e causalidade de Granger entre preços pagos e recebidos pela agricultura brasileira, 1986/2004

This papers examines the terms of trade and Granger causality between prices received and paid by the Brazilian agricultural sector, from 1986 to 2004. During that period, the terms of trade improved for the agricultural sector. The greatest improvement occurred before 1994; in 1995 the terms of trade fell, followed by a relative stabilization until 2004. The valorization in the whole period was due to agricultural products, since animals products had a significant decline in their terms of trade. Products with the greatest losses were coffee, wheat, potatoes, chicken and hogs. Regionally, the greatest losses, after 1994, occurred in the Northeast States, with the exception of Maranhao and Bahia. The Granger causality shows that agricultural prices did not cause the prices paid, considered as a whole, between 1986/2004; but they caused the prices paid for specific inputs, like fuel oil, seeds and services before 1994, and the prices of pesticides, seeds and services after that year. The effect of the prices paid on the prices received was greater in the first period than in the second one. With the opening of the economy, the prices received became more influenced by external factors than by inputs prices.

Evolução regional da produtividade da mão-de-obra na agropecuária gaúcha: uma aplicação da matriz de Markov

This study analyses the regional convergence of the levels of labor productivity in the agricultural sector of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, through a Markov matrix. It also examines the variables that explain this convergence, through the statistical technique of principal components followed by statistical regression. The study is based on the data from Agricultural Censuses of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) referring to the years of 1975 and 1995/96. The study considers four classes of levels of labor productivity. The regions in the upper class, containing the large cattle raising farms, show a tendency to migrate, in the long run, to the lower classes. The reason seems to be the reduction in the area of land available per unit of labor. The lower class tends to maintain, in the long run, approximately the same percentage of the total regions, which will not evolve in the level of labor productivity, maybe because the farms are too small to get mechanized, or do not change the production system to products that aggregate more value, or do not adopt technological innovations.

O impacto de políticas tributárias sobre o arroz do Rio Grande do Sul no contexto do Mercosul

The study evaluates the impact of some tax policies upon the rice sector in the Rio Grande do Sul (RS) state, in the Mercosur context. The impacts of the following decisions, regarding tax policy, are examined: (a) elimination of the fiscal benefits adopted by Brazilian states; (b) concession, by the government of RS, of a fiscal credit to the rice production in the state; (c) equalization of the tax rate related to the value added tax (ICMS) among all the Brazilian states at the rates of 7%, 4% and 0%. The study refers to the year of 2006 and projects some results for 2020. One of the conclusions of the study is that following the present fiscal policy legislation and equating, in all states of Brazil, the tax rate of ICMS at 7% would result in the highest benefits to the rice producers of RS state. On the other hand, given the actual market situation, setting the ICMS tax rate equal to zero, in all the Brazilian states, would result in the lowest price for the rice consumer in Brazil.

Efeitos dos setores econômicos e da escolaridade sobre o rendimento do trabalho no Rio Grande do Sul

The article analyzes the effects of economic sectors and edu-cational level of workers on their probability to earn higher wages, at the county level in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Special emphasis is given to the agricultural sector, since it employs 20% of the total labor force occupied in the state. The IBGE Demographic Census of 2000 is the basis for the data. Logit is the statistical model used for the analysis. One of the conclusions of the analysis is that the possibility of the agricultural sector, in a county, to generate higher wages is limited, as long as it remains solely a producer of the primary product. In order to generate higher wages, it is necessary that the county aggregates other sectors, as for example, industrialization, storage and transportation. Besides, the qualification of the worker is also important, so he can assume new job opportunities in the aggregated sectors, which contri-butes for higher wages.

ANÁLISE DA EFICIÊNCIA TÉCNICA NAS LAVOURAS DE ARROZ NO RIO GRANDE DO SUL

This paper evaluates the technical efficiency in rice farms in Rio Grande do Sul (RS). For this, we use the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Tobit regression model. The study use the variables available in the Census of the Institute of Irrigated Rice of RS (IRGA, 2006). The study shows that most of the rice farmers are technically inefficient on local terms, and only 5.7% are efficient. In addition, it is possible to observe that the main variables, which increase the level of efficiency in different regions of the state, are technical assistance, education level and growing system. The results show that there are important differences between the rice farms, which depends of the region of RS and of the producer condition (owner or tenant).

Evolução e convergência da produtividade do trabalho na agropecuária do Rio Grande do Sul, 1975-2006

O estudo analisa a convergencia da produtividade da mao de obra na agropecuaria do Rio Grande do Sul. Examina, tambem, as variaveis explicativas da evolucao atraves da tecnica estatistica dos componentes principais seguida da regressao estatistica. As fontes dos dados sao os Censos Agropecuarios do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) dos anos de 1975 e 2006. As regioes sao classificadas em quatro classes de niveis de produtividade da mao-de-obra analisando-se a sua migracao entre classes no longo prazo usando cadeias de Markov. Verifica-se que, no longo prazo, haveria uma tendencia de um grande percentual das regioes migrarem para a classe de produtividade mais baixa. As variaveis que influenciam a evolucao regional da produtividade da mao de obra sao de quatro categorias: substituicao entre fatores de producao, tecnologia, tipos de produtos e desigualdade na distribuicao da area dos estabelecimentos rurais.

A DINÂMICA DO EMPREGO E DA DESIGUALDADE NA RENDA DO TRABALHO NOS DIFERENTES SETORES DA INDÚSTRIA GAÚCHA ENTRE 1996 E 2005

This article analyses the changes that occurred from 1996 to 2005 in the distributions of the wages among the workers in different industrial sectors in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The inequalities in the distributions were expressed through Gini indices. Statistical regressions were used to identify the variables responsible for the changes in these inequalities. The results show that from 1996 to 2005 occurred a reduction in the inequality of the industrial salary’s income distribution in Rio Grande do Sul. But this reduction in the income inequality is due to a decrease in the average salary received by the workers and a great rise in the proportion of workers occupying positions with lower salaries. During this period the number of the State industrial workers increased at a lower rate than the value of its output, meaning that labor productivity raised. In the same period the educational level of the workers increased. Thus, the State industrial workers accumulated human capital, increased their productivity, but their wages declined.

Convergência dos sistemas financeiros no período 1971-2000: uma análise por meio de Matrizes de Markov

This article analyzes the convergence of the financial systems of 27 developed and underdeveloped countries, based on their performance during the periods from 1971 to 1990, and 1990 to 2000. The analysis was performed using Markov matrices, and was based on two variables related to the role of financial intermediaries in these systems: credit/GDP ratio and volume of deposits/GDP ratio. The results obtained, based on the data for these two periods, indicate that there will not be convergence of the financial systems of these countries into a single pattern over the long term. The pattern of convergence based on the 1990-2000 period differs from the pattern based on the first period. The second period was characterized by the intensification of financial globalization, which resulted in great changes in the financial markets of many countries. The results from this period suggest a tendency to converge towards two extremes with respect to the function of the banks in financial systems.

ANALISE DA DINÂMICA DA PRODUTIVIDADE DO TRABALHO ENTRE SETORES E ESTADOS BRASILEIROS NA DÉCADA DE 90

O objetivo do trabalho e analisar a evolucao da produtividade d o trabalho setorial nos estados brasileiros na decada de 90 e fazer projecoes da mesma usando processos markovianos. Para isso, para cada setor, foi elaborada uma funcao d e distribuicao, com quatro classes de produtividade, para o inicio e outra funcao para o final do periodo analisado. Com base nestas distribuicoes, uma matriz de probabilidades de transicao de uma classe para outra foi estimada. Os resultados indicaram que esta havendo convergencia de produtividade em cinco dos oito setores analisados: em tres setores a produtividade convergiu para a classe de menor produtividade, em um setor ela convergiu para as duas classes de menor produtividade e no outro setor ela convergiu para a classe de maior produtividade. A velocidade da convergencia, no entanto, e bastante lenta na maior parte dos casos.