Vasko Galabov

ON THE WAVE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF THE BULGARIAN BLACK SEA COAST

In the present study we evaluate the approaches to estimate the wave energy potential of the western Black Sea shelf with numerical models. For the purpose of our evaluation and due to the lack of long time series of measurements in the selected area of the Black Sea, we compare the modeled mean wave power flux output from the SWAN wave model with the only available long term measurements from the buoy of Gelendzhik for the period 1997-2003 (with gaps). The forcing meteorological data for the numerical wave models for the selected years is extracted from the ERA Interim reanalysis of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium range Forecasts). For the year 2003 we also compare the estimated wave power with the modeled by SWAN, using ALADIN regional atmospheric model winds. We try to identify the shortcomings and limitations of the numerical modeling approach to the evaluation of the wave energy potential in Black Sea.

Towards a system for sea state forecasts in the Bulgarian Black Sea coastal zone: the case of the storm of 07-08 february 2012

The paper describes the existing operational sea state forecast system of NIMH- BAS for sea state in the Black Sea and our current progress on the implementation of an additional component for the forecasts of wind waves in the Bulgarian coastal zone. Wind Waves and especially the extreme ones, occurring during severe storms are a major hazard for the coastal zone, causing significant damages to the infrastructure, threat for the human lives and also causing significant damages to the protected areas around the coast. The numerical model WAVEWATCH III is in use for wind waves forecasts for the entire Black Sea with horizontal resolution of 1/8 degree (roughly 14 kilometers), which is sufficient for the open Sea, but not enough for a detailed coastal forecast. For the purposes of the coastal forecasts and early warnings in case of severe storms we decided to implement SWAN (Simulating the Waves Near Shore)- development of TU- DELFT. In this paper we will describe the brief details about the coastal sea state forecasting system of NIMH- BAS and a case study of the storm of 07-08 February 2012, which is the severest storm in our coastal area for the last decade (and probably longer period).

THE INFLUENCE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL FORCING DATA ON THE RECONSTRUCTIONS OF HISTORICAL STORMS IN THE BLACK SEA

The present article is a study of the applicability of different sources of meteorological forcing for the coastal wave and storm surge models, which provide the operational marine forecasts for the coastal early warning systems (EWS) and are used for reconstructions of historical storms. The reconstruction of historical storms is one of the approaches to the natural coastal hazard vulnerability assessment. We evaluate the importance of the input meteorological information for the mentioned types of coastal models. For two well documented historical storms, that caused significant damages along the Bulgarian coast we simulate the significant wave heights and sea level change, using SWAN wave model and a storm surge model. The wind and mean sea level pressure fields, which are used in the present study, are extracted from the ERA Interim reanalysis of the European Center for Medium range Forecasts (ECMWF) and from the output of the high resolution limited area numerical weather prediction model ALADIN. The overall conclusion is that for the successful historical storms reconstructions ERA Interim and ERA40 reanalysis are valuable source of meteorological forcing, but due to their limitations in terms of spatial and temporal resolution, it is recommended to produce a higher spatial and temporal resolution meteorological fields, using dynamical downscaling of the reanalyzed data.

On the Winter Wave Climate of the Western Black Sea: The Changes During the Last 115 Years

We present a study of the winter wave climate of the Western Black Sea with a focus on the annual maximums and the mean seasonal wave heights. We did a numerical simulation of the wave parameters in the Black Sea by the wave model SWAN for a period of 110 years. The input wind fields are from the atmospheric reanalysis ERA-CLIM. We also performed a hindcast for the period 1980–2015 using winds from the CFSR reanalysis. Extended winter (December–March) was studied. We also studied the characteristics of the pressure gradients in a larger region attempting to quantify this way the interaction of Mediterranean lows with blocking highs. No significant long term changes were found for any of the characteristics of the mean and extreme wave climate.

On the Necessity of Improving the Research Infrastructure in the Western Black Sea for the Purposes of Flood Risk Management

This paper aims to emphasize the necessity to improve the Bulgarian research infrastructure in the western part of the Black Sea region, which can enhance the capability for more effective flood hazard assessment and risk management in the coastal area. To fulfill the requirements of the Directive 2007/60/EC flood hazard and risk maps of the Areas with Potential Significant Flood Risk (APSFR) for coastal zone have to be prepared. Short overview of the approaches for compiling such maps has been presented as well as all parameters’ evaluations needed and their uncertainties based on the available information and models. Still existing obstacles to the provision of timely geospatial information from monitoring stations along the coastal area are discussed, and some suggestions for improving the research infrastructure in the western part of the Bulgarian Black Sea coast are listed.

Application of Hydrodynamic, Pollution Drift and Wave Models as Tools for Better Environmental Management of Ports

Numerical modelling provides additional information useful for implementation of the sustainable model for environmental-friendly development of the port networks. This chapter presents an improved modelling approach using better interconnections between the components of the system. The input data has been produced by the usage of an operational hydrodynamic model for the areas in the vicinity of ports, which makes the system applicable in case of extreme situations. This provides the decision makers with examples of worst-case scenarios of pollution drifts during extreme cases like combinations of strong winds, high waves and storm surges.