Vesselin Mintchev

Determinants of Migration and Types of Migration and Mobility

The chapter suggests a comprehensive study of migration typology for Bulgarian migrants based on the concepts of individual aspirations and capabilities. The analysis utilizes data from sample surveys conducted in Switzerland and Bulgaria. An original classification of migrant types is proposed on the basis of aspirations revealed in respect of the future plans of the surveyed individuals. A distinction between short- and long-term potential migrants is derived. A subsample of the mobile population currently residing in Bulgaria is identified as well, i.e. those who have recent migration experience. These individuals are further differentiated into two main types: return and circular migrants. Along with this, the survey of Bulgarians residing in Switzerland provides an option to identify similar migrant types. The chapter provides insights on various aspects of the socio-economic profiles of the migration types studied. Finally, using logistic regression models the main determinants of the migration aspirations are outlined incorporating a selection of demographic and capability variables of respondents.

Assessing Regional Disparities in Bulgaria and Switzerland

The chapter reviews regional disparities in Bulgaria and Switzerland in relation to migration attitudes of Bulgarian citizens. Applying a taxonomy method that produces an integral score of a regional unit’s development, three main groups of units are identified—top, medium, and less developed districts in both countries. Correlation analysis is performed by variables for Bulgarian migrants’ concentration and the socio-economic indicators of the regions. The main migration variables are based on survey data for potential and return migrants in Bulgaria and for the Bulgarian residents in Switzerland. Regional demographic and socio-economic profiles of potential migrants in Bulgaria and of Bulgarian residents in Switzerland are particularly discussed in respect of gender, age, education, labour market status, etc. Evidence is suggested that Bulgarians in Switzerland tend to relocate in search of migrant niches in relatively less developed cantons, avoiding higher concentration of migrants of other origin. Educational differences among Bulgarian residents as well as the diversity in the professional occupations clearly relate to the regional divergence between the respective Swiss cantons.

Bulgarian Return Migration and Remittances: Alternative Estimates of Worker Remittances Inflow after 2000

As a result of the increased labor migration of Bulgarian citizens after the abolishment of EU visa regime the annual levels of remittances inflow show significant growth in the official values recorded by money transfer systems. It is however widely agreed that these amounts underestimate the actual remittances inflow since considerable and directly unobservable amounts are transferred through unofficial channels. The proposed paper suggests some plausible estimates of worker remittances obtained by a questionnaire household sample survey of Bulgarian return migration conducted in 2005. By our opinion, the approach adopted for deriving these estimates provides a realistic evaluation of remittances inflows showing their significant contribution to the overall macroeconomic stability of the country through supporting the persistent current account deficit in the last five years.