Victor Virlogeux

Association between Severity of MERS-CoV Infection and Incubation Period.

We analyzed data for 170 patients in South Korea who had laboratory-confirmed infection with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. A longer incubation period was associated with a reduction in the risk for death (adjusted odds ratio/1-day increase in incubation period 0.83, 95% credibility interval 0.68–1.03).

Antiviral Therapy in Patients with Hepatitis C Virus-Induced Cirrhosis

Background: Opportunities to treat infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are evolving rapidly. From the introduction of interferon (IFN)-α monotherapy in the early 1990s to the approval of telaprevir- and boceprevir-based triple therapies with pegylated (PEG)-IFN-α and ribavirin (RBV) in 2011, the chances of curing patients infected with HCV genotype 1 have improved dramatically to reach approximately 70%. Significant further improvements that may cure virtually all HCV patients with an all-oral, IFN-free regimen are becoming progressively available. Key Messages: Historically, a PEG-IFN/RBV combination therapy of patients with liver cirrhosis was associated with lower virological rates and a worse safety profile. The advent of the first protease inhibitor-based triple therapy was long expected, but the promise fell rapidly because of the numerous side effects and the requirement for intensive clinical management in cirrhotic patients. The newer direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) target the viral polymerase with either nucleos(t)ide analogues or nonnucleosidic inhibitors, the viral protease and the viral NS5A protein. Several clinical trials have now shown that a combination of sofosbuvir (nucleosidic polymerase inhibitor) with daclatasvir or ledipasvir (NS5A inhibitors), or sofosbuvir with simeprevir (protease inhibitor), or a combination of ABT-450 (protease inhibitor) with ritonavir (ABT-450/r), the nonnucleosidic polymerase inhibitor ABT-333 and the NS5A inhibitor ABT-267, can achieve a sustained virological response in up to 95% of naive patients or previously treated patients, even in those who failed prior treatment with first-generation protease inhibitors. The best treatment regimens enable the achievement of comparable results even in cirrhotics, while other regimens still require RBV or a longer treatment duration to achieve optimal results. This improved risk/benefit ratio justifies early access programs of IFN-free regimens for cirrhotic patients. The remaining difficult-to-treat patients are cirrhotics infected with HCV genotype 3 and those with decompensated cirrhosis, for whom novel DAA combinations should be evaluated in clinical trials. Conclusions: As new DAAs are becoming available in early access treatment programs, treatment strategy studies are being performed to optimize treatment regimens with respect to the choice of DAAs and treatment duration, based on viral genotypes, prior treatment response and the presence of liver cirrhosis. In the near future, this should allow: (i) a decrease in the complications of HCV-induced cirrhosis, (ii) liver transplantations to be performed in virally cured patients, and (iii) the rescue of patients in the worst clinical situation (decompensated cirrhosis and HCV recurrence on liver graft).

Estimating the Distribution of the Incubation Periods of Human Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections

A novel avian influenza virus, influenza A(H7N9), emerged in China in early 2013 and caused severe disease in humans, with infections occurring most frequently after recent exposure to live poultry. The distribution of A(H7N9) incubation periods is of interest to epidemiologists and public health officials, but estimation of the distribution is complicated by interval censoring of exposures. Imputation of the midpoint of intervals was used in some early studies, resulting in estimated mean incubation times of approximately 5 days. In this study, we estimated the incubation period distribution of human influenza A(H7N9) infections using exposure data available for 229 patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H7N9) infection from mainland China. A nonparametric model (Turnbull) and several parametric models accounting for the interval censoring in some exposures were fitted to the data. For the best-fitting parametric model (Weibull), the mean incubation period was 3.4 days (95% confidence interval: 3.0, 3.7) and the variance was 2.9 days; results were very similar for the nonparametric Turnbull estimate. Under the Weibull model, the 95th percentile of the incubation period distribution was 6.5 days (95% confidence interval: 5.9, 7.1). The midpoint approximation for interval-censored exposures led to overestimation of the mean incubation period. Public health observation of potentially exposed persons for 7 days after exposure would be appropriate.

Brief Report: Incubation Period Duration and Severity of Clinical Disease Following Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection.

Background: Few previous studies have investigated the association between the severity of an infectious disease and the length of incubation period. Methods: We estimated the association between the length of the incubation period and the severity of infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, using data from the epidemic in 2003 in Hong Kong. Results: We estimated the incubation period of severe acute respiratory syndrome based on a subset of patients with available data on exposure periods and a separate subset of patients in a putative common source outbreak, and we found associations between shorter incubation period and greater severity in both groups after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that patients with a shorter incubation period went on to have more severe disease. Further studies are needed to investigate potential biological mechanisms for this association.

Ribavirin at the Era of Novel Direct Antiviral Agents for the Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Relevance of Pharmacological Monitoring

Ribavirin is often used for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Although its mechanisms of action remain to be clearly elucidated, ribavirin plays a beneficial role for achieving virological response and decreasing the rate of virological relapse after treatment cessation. However, ribavirin may induce side effects leading to early treatment discontinuation. Among them, hemolytic anemia is the most frequent and results from intraerythrocyte accumulation. Pharmacological studies have shown that early ribavirin exposure assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) at day 0 and ribavirin trough concentration during the first three months of therapy were correlated with sustained virological response (SVR). These studies highlighted the relevance of ribavirin pharmacologic monitoring and early dose adaptation during therapy. Although the role of ribavirin within new direct acting antiviral (DAA) combinations will probably decrease in the future, its potential benefit in difficult-to-treat patients such as patients with severe hepatopathy or patients who failed triple therapy including patients with multiresistance will need to be further investigated.

Early virological assessment during telaprevir- or boceprevir-based triple therapy in hepatitis C cirrhotic patients who failed a previous interferon based regimen – The ANRS CO20-CUPIC study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE To assess within the ANRS CO20-CUPIC cohort whether the viral load (VL) at week 2/week 6 for telaprevir/boceprevir-based triple therapy, respectively, was predictive of sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to study the relevance of this measurement to early diagnose drug resistance. METHODS Observational study of HCV genotype 1 patients with compensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A), non-responders to a prior course of interferon (IFN)-based therapy and who started triple therapy. Patients received either 12 weeks of telaprevir in combination with PEG-IFN/ribavirin (RBV), then 36 weeks of PEG-IFN/RBV, or 4 weeks of PEG-IFN/RBV, then 44 weeks of PEG-IFN/RBV and boceprevir. RESULTS A total of 262 patients were analyzed. For telaprevir-treated patients, 28% had undetectable VL at W2 of whom 81% achieved SVR12 whereas 67% had undetectable VL at W4 of whom 67% achieved SVR12. For boceprevir-treated patients 20% had undetectable VL at W6 and 86% of them achieved SVR12 whereas 36% had undetectable VL at W8 among whom 73% achieved SVR12. Five telaprevir-treated patients had a VL increase between W2 and W4 after a decrease between D0 and W2. Four of them did not achieve SVR12. Similarly, six boceprevir-treated patients had a VL increase between W6 and W8 after a decrease between D0 and W6. Five did not reach SVR12. CONCLUSIONS The assessment of HCV RNA level after two weeks of triple therapy in cirrhotic non-responder patients is a good predictor of SVR. This assessment was useful to do an early diagnosis of viral breakthrough.

Association between the Severity of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections and Length of the Incubation Period

Background In early 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus emerged in China, and has caused sporadic human infections. The incubation period is the delay from infection until onset of symptoms, and varies from person to person. Few previous studies have examined whether the duration of the incubation period correlates with subsequent disease severity. Methods and Findings We analyzed data of period of exposure on 395 human cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in China in a Bayesian framework using a Weibull distribution. We found a longer incubation period for the 173 fatal cases with a mean of 3.7 days (95% credibility interval, CrI: 3.4–4.1), compared to a mean of 3.3 days (95% CrI: 2.9–3.6) for the 222 non-fatal cases, and the difference in means was marginally significant at 0.47 days (95% CrI: -0.04, 0.99). There was a statistically significant correlation between a longer incubation period and an increased risk of death after adjustment for age, sex, geographical location and underlying medical conditions (adjusted odds ratio 1.70 per day increase in incubation period; 95% credibility interval 1.47–1.97). Conclusions We found a significant association between a longer incubation period and a greater risk of death among human H7N9 cases. The underlying biological mechanisms leading to this association deserve further exploration.

Comparison of incubation period distribution of human infections with MERS-CoV in South Korea and Saudi Arabia

The incubation period is an important epidemiologic distribution, it is often incorporated in case definitions, used to determine appropriate quarantine periods, and is an input to mathematical modeling studies. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) is an emerging infectious disease in the Arabian Peninsula. There was a large outbreak of MERS in South Korea in 2015. We examined the incubation period distribution of MERS coronavirus infection for cases in South Korea and in Saudi Arabia. Using parametric and nonparametric methods, we estimated a mean incubation period of 6.9 days (95% credibility interval: 6.3–7.5) for cases in South Korea and 5.0 days (95% credibility interval: 4.0–6.6) among cases in Saudi Arabia. In a log-linear regression model, the mean incubation period was 1.42 times longer (95% credibility interval: 1.18–1.71) among cases in South Korea compared to Saudi Arabia. The variation that we identified in the incubation period distribution between locations could be associated with differences in ascertainment or reporting of exposure dates and illness onset dates, differences in the source or mode of infection, or environmental differences.

Evaluation of animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission of influenza A (H7N9) virus in China, 2013–15

A novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus emerged in China in March 2013 and by 27 September 2017 a total of 1533 laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported. Occurrences of animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission have been previously identified, and the force of human-to-human transmission is an important component of risk assessment. In this study, we constructed an ecological model to evaluate the animal-to-human and human-to-human transmission of H7N9 during the first three epidemic waves in spring 2013, winter/spring 2013–2014 and winter/spring 2014–2015 in China based on 149 laboratory-confirmed urban cases. Our analysis of patterns in incidence in major cities allowed us to estimate a mean incubation period in humans of 2.6 days (95% credibility interval, CrI: 1.4–3.1) and an effective reproduction number Re of 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.05–0.47) for the first wave, 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.01–0.41) for the second wave, and 0.16 (95% CrI: 0.01–0.45) for the third wave without a significant difference between waves. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of H7N9 cases after live poultry market closures in various major cities. Our analytic framework can be used for continued assessment of the risk of human to human transmission of A(H7N9) virus as human infections continue to occur in China.

Increased Ribavirin Bioavailability Associated With Telaprevir Use in Hepatitis C Patients Treated With PEGylated -Interferon/Ribavirin/Telaprevir Triple Therapy

Background: Anemia is more frequent in patients receiving telaprevir with PEGylated interferon/ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV) than in those receiving PEG-IFN/RBV alone. Objectives: The objective was to measure the impact of telaprevir on RBV bioavailability and to assess the concomitant renal function. Materials and Methods: Thirty-seven hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients non-responders to a previous course of PEG-IFN/RBV therapy and re-treated with triple therapy combining PEG-IFN/RBV and telaprevir were analyzed. RBV bioavailability was measured before the triple therapy initiation, during telaprevir treatment at week (W) 4 and W8, and after telaprevir cessation (post W16). The renal function was assessed by estimating the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Results: At W4, RBV bioavailability, expressed as mg/L/daily dose/kg body weight, was significantly increased (median increase = 0.06 mg/L/dose/kg; P < 0.001). In parallel, the renal function was impaired with a mean eGFR decrease of -6.8 mL/minutes/1.73 m² (P = 0.109). Between W4 and W8, RBV bioavailability continued to increase (P < 0.001) but subsequently decreased slightly after telaprevir discontinuation with a concomitant restoration of the renal function (eGFR increase of 6.34 mL/minutes/1.73 m²). Conclusions: Our results indicated a reversible increase in RBV bioavailability after telaprevir exposure, which might be linked to the impairment of the GFR. This also suggests a RBV-telaprevir pharmacological interaction, a possible source of severe anemia observed under triple therapy. These results suggest that RBV pharmacological monitoring may be clinically relevant, especially in the context of first-generation HCV protease inhibitor-based therapy.