Vidal Romero

Living in Fear: The Dynamics of Extortion in Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency

Why do drug trafficking organizations sometimes prey on the communities in which they operate, but sometimes provide assistance to these communities? What explains their strategies of extortion and cooptation toward civil society? We argue that the level of territorial contestation among armed criminal groups explains variation in coopting and coercing civil society. Using new survey data from Mexico, including list experiments to elicit responses about potentially illegal behavior, the paper measures the prevalence of extortion and assistance among drug trafficking organizations. In general, our experiments find higher extortion rates than those reported in national victimization surveys. In support of our theory, then, these data show that territorial contestation among rival organizations produces more extortion, and, in contrast, uncontested municipalities provide the most assistance.

The Political Economy of Fiscal Reforms in Latin America: Mexico

This paper describes the main features of the Mexican fiscal system, details the most important changes that have occurred/not occurred over the past two decades, and explains what factors influenced the rate, degree and direction of change. In brief, we contend that there have been profound and ideologically consistent changes in spending assignment and in the institutional arrangements governing taxes, spending and debt management. Over the past 20 years, Mexico has moved from a highly centralized fiscal system characterized by extensive presidential discretion to a moderately decentralized system with more meaningful checks and balances. Decentralization of spending assignments has been coupled with steps designed to increase transparency, efficiency and accountability over public funds. Changes to the revenue collection system, by contrast, have been considerably smaller in magnitude and not quite as consistent in ideational terms; while the general trend has been to increase tax revenue in an equitable manner, not all changes in tax law have increased revenue or equity.

México: la accidentada consolidación democrática

Repasamos los principales eventos politicos de Mexico en 2006. La eleccion presidencial mas renida de la historia de Mexico dejo en un lejano segundo plano las demas elecciones que se desarrollaron en el ano (para renovar las dos camaras del Congreso federal, 6 gubernaturas, 12 congresos estatales, y 566 Ayuntamientos en 12 estados) y dejo fuera de la agenda muchos temas de politica publica. Y aunque el desconocimiento del triunfo del adversario por parte del candidato derrotado parece dejar mal parada a la naciente democracia mexicana, son muchos mas los indicadores de una democracia perfectible pero que funciona. Por tratarse de la primera entrega de lo que sera un ejercicio anual, hemos incluido en la resena, por su relevancia, informacion previa al 1 de enero de 2006

MÉXICO: Reformas pese a un gobierno dividido

2007 fue el primer ano de la presidencia de Felipe Calderon, del Partido Accion Nacional. El nuevo gobierno hizo hincapie en la lucha contra la delincuencia organizada, usando al ejercito en vez de la policia civil. Destacan tambien negociaciones entre presidente y partidos para cambiar tres normas de importancia: la ley de pensiones de servidores publicos (que subsana un enorme deficit en las finanzas del gobierno); la creacion de nuevos impuestos (que aumentan levemente, pero por primera vez en decadas, la capacidad recaudatoria del gobierno); y una reforma electoral (como respuesta a la crisis postelectoral de 2006). Repasamos tambien las elecciones locales que se llevaron a cabo en 14 entidades, en las que el Partido Revolucionario Institucional consiguio recuperar algunas posiciones perdidas en los ultimos anos.

Caught in the crossfire: the geography of extortion and police corruption in Mexico

Since 2002, the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University has collaborated widely with academics, policymakers and practitioners around the world to advance knowledge about the conditions for and interactions among democracy, broad-based economic development, human rights, and the rule of law. The mission of CDDRL is to understand how countries can overcome poverty, instability, and abusive rule to become prosperous, just, democratic, and well-governed states. This concern for the overall trajectory of national development—and for the intricate links among the economic, political, legal, social, and health dimensions of development—sets CDDRL apart from other research centers. gratefully acknowledged. We thank Rafael Gimenez and Lorena Becerra from the polling unit of the Mexican Office of the President for collecting the Survey on Public Safety and Governance in Mexico (SPSGM) used in this research. Neither those individuals, nor the institutions they are affiliated to, are responsible for the opinions and analysis contained in this chapter. All errors remain our own.

Of Love and Hate Understanding the Determinants of Presidential Legacies

Presidents should prefer to be positively remembered in history for improving their country’s conditions, rather than to be hated for generations. Few, however, succeed. Why? The inquiry goes beyond historic accounts or mere intellectual curiosity; it is a key part of understanding presidential decision making. We answer this question using data from an expert survey on the Mexican Presidency, the first of its kind for Mexico. Problem-solving capacities and presidents’ ability to change the existing institutions are the main determinants of success. Corruption is barely punished by experts. Negative remembrance in history is associated to authoritarianism and economic crises.