Vikas Kakkar

Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach

Abstract In this paper, we study long-run comovements of real exchange rates and relative prices of nontradables and tradables. This approach is complementary to many existing approaches to investigating real exchange rate movements. In many theoretical models of exchange rate determination, the relative prices of nontradables and tradables are linked to the real exchange rates by identities. However, they do not necessarily move with real exchange rates in reality because of many factors. For example, many tradables contain nontradable components in the form of retailing services, so that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) may not hold for these tradable goods even in the long run. Hence real exchange rates may not move in the direction predicted by theoretical models when the producers of these tradable goods experience changes in productivity. In this paper, we identify time periods, countries and relative price measures for which comovements between real exchange rates and relative prices of nontradables and tradables are observed.

The Relative Price of Nontraded Goods and Sectoral Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Investigation

This paper examines the relationship between the relative price of nontraded goods and sectoral total factor productivities (TFPs) in the context of the Balassa-Samuelson model. With perfect capital mobility internationally and perfect factor mobility domestically, the relative price of nontraded goods is predicted to be independent of preferences over traded and nontraded goods, and completely determined by TFPs in the traded- and nontraded-goods sectors. Panel cointegration and unit root tests, applied to a panel of fourteen OECD economies, indicate that the relative price of nontraded goods and the labor-share-adjusted TFP differential are cointegrated with the unit cointegration vector.

Money Demand in Japan and Nonlinear Cointegration

We estimate the long-run Japanese money demand function in a cointegration framework with two nonlinear functional forms that allow for the liquidity trap, and compare the results with the standard log-level functional form. In addition to the conventional linear cointegration techniques, we also use a recently developed procedure for nonlinear cointegration that allows the estimation of alternative functional forms under the same assumption regarding the trend properties of the nominal interest rate. The nonlinear functional forms outperform the log-level functional form based on out-of- sample prediction performance.

Long run real exchange rates: evidence from Mexico

Abstract This paper studies the behavior of the Mexican–US bilateral real exchange rate from 1955 to 1996. Evidence suggests that this real exchange rate is cointegrated with the Mexican and US relative price of nontradables. This cointegrating relationship provides a natural basis for measuring long run real exchange rate misalignment.

Determinants of Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation

The large and persistent deviations of nominal exchange rates from their purchasing power parities comprise a key stylized fact in international economics. This paper sheds light on these persistent deviations by combining two disparate strands of empirical work. The first strand focuses on real economic shocks such as sectoral technology shocks suggested by the celebrated Balassa-Samuelson model, whereas the second strand emphasizes monetary shocks which create persistent effects on both the real interest rate and the real exchange rate. We also hypothesize a third factor which may affect real exchange rates - shocks to the global financial system, which we proxy by the real price of gold. Although each factor in isolation has limited explanatory power, we find that these three factors in conjunction can successfully explain the medium to long run movements in 14 bilateral U.S. dollar real exchange rates from 1970 to 2006. The three factors are sectoral total factor productivity differentials, real interest rate differentials, and the real price of gold, representing real shocks, monetary shocks, and shocks to the global financial system, respectively. We document evidence suggesting that bilateral U.S. dollar real ex-change rates are cointegrated with these three factors. Keywords: purchasing power parity, Balassa-Samuelson model, cointegration JEL codes: F31, F41

On the evolution of comparative advantage in matching models

Abstract This paper examines whether comparative advantage is the long-run outcome of an evolutionary process in the open economy. It formalizes the notion that natural selection eliminates inefficient firms and thus leads to stable and perhaps efficient patterns of world trade. Instead of assuming the existence of a Walrasian auctioneer, we study two simple matching processes that coordinate trade between firms. Our central result is that specialization according to comparative advantage, with the larger country possibly incompletely specialized, is the unique evolutionarily stable state of the world economy.

Sectoral Capital–Labor Ratios and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Asia

This paper examines the relationship between sectoral capita-labor ratios and total factor productivity (TFP) for six Asian economies in the context of the Balassa-Samuelson model. A strong prediction of the model is that the capital-labor ratios in both the traded- and nontraded-goods sectors depend on the TFP in the traded-goods sector. Both single-equation and panel cointegration tests support this implication of the model.

Introduction: The evolving role of Asia in global finance

Asias economic integration into the global system has many dimensions. It is part of the broader globalization process that has taken place over the past two decades and involves dynamics of convergence, integration, and interactions of both real and financial activities. Section 1 examines some of the recent trends in the real and financial interactions between Asia and the rest of the world and among different markets within Asia. It contains four chapters on this theme, addressing the issues of macroeconomic similarities and differences, interactions among Asian stock markets and between them and the US equity market, as well as spillovers across various types of financial markets in the region in response to shocks.

The equilibrium real exchange rate of China: a productivity approach

A large body of theoretical and empirical works asserts that exchange rates depend upon a countrys productivity growth, and this effect is dubbed the Balassa-Samuelson effect. This paper examines the evidence for a Balassa-Samuelson based explanation for the real exchange rate movements of China vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar. Using disaggregated industry level data, we construct sectoral total factor productivities (TFPs) for the tradable and nontradable sectors from 1980-2003. Our main findings are: (a) the sectoral TFP differential is cointegrated with the relative price of nontradables with the unit cointegration vector; and (b) the real exchange rate is cointegrated with home and foreign sectoral TFP differentials. This productivity based real exchange rate model is then used to estimate the equilibrium exchange rates of the Renminbi (RMB). A comparison of the equilibrium exchange rate predicted by the productivity-based model and the actual rate indicates that the Renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the US dollar, though the undervaluation is not statistically significant. Our conclusions continue to hold even after we have controlled for the movements of net foreign assets.